Going for a middle... I want your opinions.

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  • A4K
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-08-12
    • 5243
    #1
    Going for a middle... I want your opinions.
    Have Suns -1.5 for $440 to win $400 for the game vs. the Jazz.

    Suns up 10 at the half.

    Took Jazz -2.5 for $420 to win $400 for the 2H.

    The middle breaks down as follows....


    Suns WIN by 2-7 points = $800 profit
    Suns win by 1 = $40 loss
    Suns win by 8 or more = $20 loss
    Jazz WIN = $40 loss

    In essence, I am now risking $40 to win $800 on a 6 point middle. Suns win by 2,3,4,5,6, or 7.

    Regardless of the current score or the outcome, depending on when you respond, do you take this middle opportunity?
    Tags: None
    • KVB
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 05-29-14
      • 74817
      #2
      No for me, but it may depend on your handicapping methods and why you chose Suns -1.5 to begin with.
        Comment
        • A4K
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-08-12
          • 5243
          #3
          Suns had/have an extreme outside shot of making the playoffs. I figured they'd be motivated at home against a team of similar caliber. I did not look too in depth into this one. Figured the middling opportunity was to good to pass up. 6 points seems like a wide gap.
            Comment
            • KVB
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 05-29-14
              • 74817
              #4
              If you didn't look too in depth, the middle is probably a good idea...it's a safe short term strategy. I don't generally back out of bets unless I had planned to from the beginning. It is my sense that you either won't see too many opportunities like this or when you do, they won't work out as well as you'd hope.

              Tonight I think you may be glad you took it. Experience tells me we're set up for the Utah wins or Suns by 1 point scenario. Those are the worst for you, but still better than a $400 loss.

                Comment
                • A4K
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 10-08-12
                  • 5243
                  #5
                  Originally posted by KVB
                  If you didn't look too in depth, the middle is probably a good idea...it's a safe short term strategy. I don't generally back out of bets unless I had planned to from the beginning. It is my sense that you either won't see too many opportunities like this or when you do, they won't work out as well as you'd hope.

                  Tonight I think you may be glad you took it. Experience tells me we're set up for the Utah wins or Suns by 1 point scenario. Those are the worst for you, but still better than a $400 loss.

                  That was literally the conclusion I came to after placing the bet. I regretted pulling the trigger. In general, I don't like to hedge or middle, but this looked like a good opportunity to get out of the bet with a small loss or a big win. Thanks for you opinion.
                    Comment
                    • KVB
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 05-29-14
                      • 74817
                      #6
                      Nice hit, you got 'em both. Pretty good for a regret...lol.

                      This has been a good night for a lot of folks. Good work.

                        Comment
                        • A4K
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-08-12
                          • 5243
                          #7
                          Originally posted by KVB
                          Nice hit, you got 'em both. Pretty good for a regret...lol.

                          This has been a good night for a lot of folks. Good work.

                          Well fuq a blind duck! Thought the ref called a foul at the end of the game. Had me sweating that. I'll take it and count my good fortune!!!!
                            Comment
                            • temple2010
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-16-10
                              • 1369
                              #8
                              Nice work on that play! I would have only played half of your original wager for the second bet because generally you most likely were going to win your original bet for $400. I would hate to give back the entire first bet profit for an attempt at a middle. At worst you would have netted $200. anyways congrats
                                Comment
                                • A4K
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 10-08-12
                                  • 5243
                                  #9
                                  Originally posted by temple2010
                                  Nice work on that play! I would have only played half of your original wager for the second bet because generally you most likely were going to win your original bet for $400. I would hate to give back the entire first bet profit for an attempt at a middle. At worst you would have netted $200. anyways congrats

                                  I thought about that, but then came to the conclusion that Utah and Phoenix are always playing down to the wire. I just wanted out of the wager and it worked out. LOL
                                    Comment
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