Creating your own point spreads...

[GSoro]

I'm interested in how different people come up with their own point spreads in all sports but more specifically in the NFL.....anyone willing to share?

For me I get a point margin average of both teams previous opponents to get a strength of schedule and then depending on if they are home or away I add that margin to it. I also take the turnover margin average from the last 3 games and times it by 3.5. If it's a positive turnover margin I subtract the points and vice versa, how about you guys?

[flsaders85]

I'll just say turnovers have been proven to be random in NFL. There is no predicatability to turnovers or turnover margin. They are defeinitely worth points when you look back at a box score, but you cannot predict turnovers with any degree of accuracy.

[blackHIPPY]

i usually take turnovers out of the game to get a score if teams commited an equal amout of turnovers

a turnover in the nfl imo is worth 7-8 points

[GSoro]

I'll just say turnovers have been proven to be random in NFL. There is no predicatability to turnovers or turnover margin. They are defeinitely worth points when you look back at a box score, but you cannot predict turnovers with any degree of accuracy.

Yeah that's why I try to take away points if its a positive turnover margin & vice versa to get a more accurate idea of how the game 'should' have played out. But yeah I totally agree