The usage of football outsiders

CidaliaRod · 12-09-14, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by tonyd85

How many of you use football outsiders in your betting analysis? I like these advanced analytics and incorporate them. Any sites that I am unaware of that is used by some of you guys and gals?

What sites are you aware of?

evo34 · 12-10-14, 03:12 AM

FYI: https://fiftytwopointfour.wordpress.com/ uses Football Outsiders to make betting predictions.

statnerds · 12-12-14, 10:04 PM

please don't take this the wrong way but you are wasting your time. the biggest, baddest market in north america sure as shit is efficient and any angle you can think of is already in the price. make your own numbers (and stay out of the weeds while doing it!!) and hit openers. come back near game time for when the sharp money pushes something past one of your numbers. even the sharpest of the sharp is going to hit 57%, max!! now, while i wouldn't suggest betting into a 43% subset as a common practice, trust your numbers.

medelste · 01-10-15, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by statnerds

please don't take this the wrong way but you are wasting your time. the biggest, baddest market in north america sure as shit is efficient and any angle you can think of is already in the price. make your own numbers (and stay out of the weeds while doing it!!)

You are usually spot-on, but why are you attacking the guy for doing just what you are suggesting? He is trying to come up with his "own numbers" by incorporating Football Outsiders' advanced analytics in his analysis.

statnerds · 01-10-15, 09:01 AM

my suggestion was to come up with his own numbers and avoid going into the weeds. ie, putting in way too much effort for any potential payoff. all this stuff is in there. the market is efficient. much better, faster and easier to cap the market than the independent events that form the overall market. and i prefaced with a plea to understand where i was coming from. very nuanced argument and point i was trying to make on making and trusting your numbers, but that should be a 10 minute exercise per week. shouldn't spend hours gathering and analyzing data to spit out a number.

i apologize if anyone felt slighted.

evo34 · 01-13-15, 05:48 AM

Originally posted by statnerds

my suggestion was to come up with his own numbers and avoid going into the weeds. ie, putting in way too much effort for any potential payoff. all this stuff is in there. the market is efficient. much better, faster and easier to cap the market than the independent events that form the overall market. and i prefaced with a plea to understand where i was coming from. very nuanced argument and point i was trying to make on making and trusting your numbers, but that should be a 10 minute exercise per week. shouldn't spend hours gathering and analyzing data to spit out a number.

i apologize if anyone felt slighted.

No one feels slighted. You just look like an idiot for throwing your hands up in the air and desperately trying to follow "sharps," when in fact there are plenty of valid situational methods which will beat the market. You may very well have given up because it got too competitive. It doesn't mean the rest of have the same attitude.

bihon · 01-13-15, 08:39 AM

Originally posted by evo34

You just look like an idiot for throwing your hands up in the air and desperately trying to follow "sharps," when in fact there are plenty of valid situational methods which will beat the market.

That statement reminds me of stock/commodity market some 15-20 years ago when just about everyone despised even good advisors and invented its own technical analysis indicators. All of them drawned... including myself.

Sure most of them were/are crooks, but recognising value is an art by itself.