Tool to calculate "real" lines for NCAAF or NFL

[oceandiver7203]

Hello all,

Not sure if you guys could help , but will try !

I like betting NCAAF and i am tired of all the false lines and their movements everyday !

Can someone tell me the simple equation or math to calculate somehow a near by "realistic" line between 2 teams? or is there a website that can help for this matter ?

Thanks for all your input

Good day

[peacebyinches]

Yes, I have been feverishly developing an algorithm that calculates the true spread that should exist between two teams for a given match up.

Let S (A,B) = overall skill of team A and B respectively
Let C (A,B) = overall coaching consistency and ability of team A and B respectively
Let D* represent a constant parameter that estimates the degree of homefield advantage the home team has in terms of points

Then we fit the function:

H(A,B) = [[S (A,B)+C (A,B)]xD*] ./ [standard deviation of C (A,B)^2 - x+D*]

From this I take the value of H and drink that many beers. Following this procedure, I just pick which team I dislike the least to cover the spread and watch it on TV, drinking H amount of beers during the game, typically passing out by halftime.

Use this treasure wisely my friend.

[oceandiver7203]

Great thx for the input

[peacebyinches]

Anytime! I hope it is serving you well!

[jpb383]

That's really proprietary information.

[stevenash]

Yes, I have been feverishly developing an algorithm that calculates the true spread that should exist between two teams for a given match up.

Let S (A,B) = overall skill of team A and B respectively
Let C (A,B) = overall coaching consistency and ability of team A and B respectively
Let D* represent a constant parameter that estimates the degree of homefield advantage the home team has in terms of points

Then we fit the function:

H(A,B) = [[S (A,B)+C (A,B)]xD*] ./ [standard deviation of C (A,B)^2 - x+D*]

From this I take the value of H and drink that many beers. Following this procedure, I just pick which team I dislike the least to cover the spread and watch it on TV, drinking H amount of beers during the game, typically passing out by halftime.

Use this treasure wisely my friend.

I use the same formula, however I factor in the color of the helmets my baby daughter likes the most.

[raydog]

^^^ im more of a team mascot guy... but she might be on to something... it should definitely be factored in...

oceandriver, if lines are off or "fake" as you put it, the sharp gamblers will pound the fukk out of sportsbooks...the books dont mess around and open with lines that their model produces for them... they dont know who will win the game anymore than anyone else does

[ericc]

I use the same formula, however I factor in the color of the helmets my baby daughter likes the most.

but what about Oregon?