how much to hedge?

**Fire in da hole** · 10-12-14, 07:20 PM

How much are you supposed to win? We need to know the bets.

**leetreaper** · 10-12-14, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by Conan

last leg of both a 8 team teaser and a 5 team parlay is st Louis on Monday how much is appropriate to hedge?

4 years on this forum and you haven't learned anything? I've seen so many posts about this topic last couple of years with some decent discussion there...

**Conan** · 10-12-14, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

4 years on this forum and you haven't learned anything? I've seen so many posts about this topic last couple of years with some decent discussion there...

i could look up old posts just as easy as looking up things in the library i prefer direct conversations for brainstorming.

**Conan** · 10-12-14, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by Fire in da hole

How much are you supposed to win? We need to know the bets.

parlay pays 6400 teaser pays 2600

**Martinr** · 10-13-14, 11:15 AM

I'll refrain from the usual comment that goes along the lines of "why did you add St Louis if you intended to hedge". When it comes down to that last leg the temptation to hedge always comes up. Still need more info though before you're going to get useful advice.
What have you got on St L? Money Line or Spread?
How many points in the teaser?
Do you want to ensure the same profit whichever team wins, or do you want to weight the profit in favour of St L?
Do you have the necessary funds on hand to go with the optimal strategy?
Do you want to hedge pre game, or would you consider going for a live middle?

**Conan** · 10-13-14, 04:40 PM

Spread have them +3 with them +10 on teaser funds are not an issue

**Conan** · 10-13-14, 04:43 PM

I was going lean rams just want to ensure profit as it would be ashame to get so cloce and end up with nothing that would just piss me off

**Martinr** · 10-13-14, 09:22 PM

I checked earlier to see if you had replied, but you hadn't at the time.
I'm hoping you took a live middle when the Rams scored first.
If not, it may not be too late. The score is 10-14 as I write this, with SF deep in attack. Assuming they score here and take the score to 17-14 you'll need to hope that the Rams score next. If so, and you still want to hedge, then put 3100 on SF at anything better than -2.5. Preferably a M/L of +112 or better. That should just about guarantee the current value of the ticket, with a chance of hitting both.
I'm assuming you spent $500 on the 5 team parlay. That made the ticket worth around 3380 after 4 legs.
Let the teaser ride. You've already paid enough juice on that.
gl

**Cookie Monster** · 10-13-14, 11:14 PM

The "correct" answer is this: Supposing you get the opposite side (-3) at best price -110. Calculate the amount bet to SF -3-110 that would make indifferent who covers (ie, win $3048). Math is pretty easy (6400-1.1x=x, then 2.1x=6400, x=3048).

After that, think you are offered STL +3+110. How much would you place, if there is not a previous bet?. If you would risk $500 on such bet, then underhedge by $500.

**downsouth** · 10-21-14, 01:22 PM

How much did you end up hedging?

**Conan** · 10-22-14, 09:16 AM

not enugh i hate dropping a parlay on the last leg

**DRB** · 10-22-14, 02:20 PM

A+ for Cookie Monster's use of algebra in calculating optimal bet size.

Conan I face these kind of decisions all of the time die to the nature of how I tend to play.

There were times when I wasn't so discombobulated ( word ? ) as I am these days when
I would have been licking my chops after a game like Monday nite.

Steelers short money line in multiple parlays with Houston ( + 10 ) closing multiple 7-point teasers.
And yes they were gifted the last touchdown and almost got the onside kick inside the 40 with a minute to go !
But Pitt was gifted the victory !

Such is the lunacy of the NFL and now it seems even ore than ever !

Good luck-

DrB