Kelly criterion using Asian Handicap question

[lostboy182]

Hi Guys,

Please bare with me as I'm still finding my feet here. Wasn't sure whether to post this in the newbie section or not. I need some clarification please: I'm trying to attain expected growth by way of football bets using Kelly criterion.

Is there a formula used to determine whether to use the Asian Handicap or to go for an outright win on a specific pick? I mean should the draw have to be above a certain percentage chance before deeming it is "too likely" to put a spanner in the works?

For example In this match, Betfair had the odds as:

Team A 1.93 - 51.81%
Team B 4.40 - 22.73%
Draw 3.93 - 25.45 %

I had the probabilities as:

Team A 45%
Team B 26%
Draw 29%

Feeding this in to Kelly would recommend back Team B with 4.24% of my bankroll.

Under Asian Handicap with Team B +0.5 goals, Betfair had:

Team A 2.01 49.75%
Team B +0.5 goals 1.94 51.55%

I had:
Team A 38.87%
Team B +0.5 goals 61.13%

Feeding this in to my Kelly calc advises backing Team B with 19.78% of my bankroll.

I was wondering typically, and for expected growth, would the 19.78% on the handicap rather than 4.24% outright be preferable, and basically is there a formula applied to choose between the two? Or would it just be a personal preference?


Thank you for time guys.

[fattytrellis]

I don't understand how you got Team B +0.5 as 61.13% when you have said above your percentages for the draw and team B. They only equal 55%. Team B +0.5 is exactly the same thing as the draw/team B so therefore should have the same outcome %.