Accu-score

**Peep** · 02-10-09, 07:12 PM

What is accu-score Fisch? Got a link?

**Fischnasty** · 02-10-09, 07:18 PM

a c c u s c o r e . c o m (no spaces). uses mathematical simulations to predict game outcomes.

**Peep** · 02-10-09, 07:31 PM

Thanks.

**Duane1975** · 02-11-09, 09:16 AM

accuscore is really good at football but when it comes to bball and hockey its 50/50. i use it alot but dont put to much faith in it when it comes down to bball. when the celts played the lakers and the cavs played the spurs last sunday it projected a easy win for the celts and cavs and we all know what happened than.

**Fischnasty** · 02-11-09, 09:36 AM

yeah, i use it as a resource for the NFL and sometimes college fb, but havent used it much for bball. its worthless for NHL

**Madetowin** · 02-12-09, 09:54 PM

To be honest with you , it's not that great.I used accuscore like 3-4 years ago its not that good at all. All is does is give you a headache especially if your like me and read things from every different place and use different formulas for plays. Just confuses things

**Masu485** · 02-13-09, 01:30 AM

it's absolutely worthless... when i first found it of course i felt like it was the greatest thing ever. i found it ok for certain NFL player props for half a season though, but that's about it.

**xyz** · 02-13-09, 04:02 AM

Accuscore claims that they simulate each game thousands of times on a supercomputer play by play. Can anyone speak of the kind of simulation they do? From Justin's videos, we see ways to estimate the game based on averages and normalization based on the opponent. But play by play, and getting it right, seems like a bit far fetched.

**evo34** · 02-14-09, 02:23 AM

They have the right idea (building a simulator as opposed to developing power ratings), but it seems they are fairly clueless overall. E.g., they grade NHL totals as if the odds are always -110 for each side. This inflated their performance massively last year (where their sim would usually bet 5.5 under -110), but when I pointed this out to them, they said, "odds on hockey totals fluctuate wildly during the day, so using -110 consistently should even out in the long run." No need to comment on the absurdity of that statement.

Additionally, they count as plays anything where their sim is even 0.1 points different from the line. So past performance will include a ton of noise, even if they are using accurate closing lines -- which I have heard anecdotally they are not.

In sum, it seems like the site is run by some kids who don't quite understand sports gambling -- which is a shame since I think they are probably one or two smart, experienced people away from creating something pretty good.