Need help from math/ev wizards

[ApricotSinner32]

No vig line -230.85

Gambler risks $1025 on -205 to win $500

What is the gamblers expected value on the wager?

[NunyaBidness]

It appears you're making the assumption that the vig free line is the true price of the event occurring. Whether or not this is accurate is a separate argument.

Given your assumption, we convert the vig free line to a probability of 69.77%.

So, 69.77% of the time you win $500.

30.23% of the time you lose $1025.

($500 x .6977) - ($1025 x .3023) = $38.99

[ZetaPsi808]

Pinny line in this case -256 / +221

[ZetaPsi808]

It appears you're making the assumption that the vig free line is the true price of the event occurring. Whether or not this is accurate is a separate argument.

Given your assumption, we convert the vig free line to a probability of 69.77%.

So, 69.77% of the time you win $500.

30.23% of the time you lose $1025.

($500 x .6977) - ($1025 x .3023) = $38.99

thanks pal