Handicapping Help

[million2one]

I am building a model to predict the outcome of an NBA game essentially by simulating each individual possession.

Is there a statistic that can tell you how many possessions ended with free throw shots and not a field goal attempt, maybe I can use some set theory?

Thanks for all the help.
It really helps me to verbalize my thoughts.

[alibaba]

good luck. but i dont like

[Waterstpub87]

Could you do Pos- attempts - turnovers = X

[million2one]

Could you do Pos- attempts - turnovers = X

Thanks, yeah I suppose that works.
I know this number is minuscule and may not even matter in the long run.

[million2one]

good luck. but i dont like

Why?
Everything I read says simulating each possession will lead to a more accurate predication, essentially I am trying to break the game down into finer and finer pieces rather then just look at final points scored.