Pleasing through 0

[tto827]

I just bet a 3 team pleaser small just for the fun of it. When it hit me, that if teasing through 0 is a bad decision because you are buying points that don't exist, does pleasing through 0 give the player an edge? I have no clue as to what vig I am paying on a pleaser, that probably negates any advantage, my 3tm -6 points was a 17-1 payout.

Just thought it could be an interesting discussion

[infinite wisdom]

while your point is a good one, at the end of this post we will find that the odds/return on this bet suck,
which will probably cause the end of discussion on this topic.


ADVICE >> you are way better off using ACTION POINT bets on any dog you believe will cover 6 extra points.


back to the pleaser.
undoubtedly, selling points around 0 would be preferred.
you do gain some edge from the fact the gm cant end in a tie.
and most non one possessions games are likely going to be decided by 3 or more points due to fouling.
selling about 0 has to be preferable than to say selling points from +11 to +5.

some advice would to be never please favorites, they statistically dont cover enough games by 6 extra pts to consider it.
work only with dogs, and crossing 0 is probably the best idea.
for a 6 pt dog its preferable to just use a reduced juice money line.
for 7-8 pt dogs its probably not a good idea to please.
these gms wont fall 1 or 2 enuf so again, use the dog money line.
when you get into 9-15 pt dogs your sacrificing/selling off some of the best/highest probability numbers that are
likely to fall. you really dont want be taking that 11 pt dog down to +5 giving away 5,6,7,8,9,10, and push on 11.
perhaps when the line exceeds 15, one might find some value selling off all the low teens 10-16 and keeping the single digits.

in pleaser betting you are looking for situations that could be potential blowouts.
IMHO i find that pretty hard to predict.
its easier to find games/situations that are expected to land/fall near the number.
i give the linemaker and market a lot of respect for the betting numbers.
i dont expect them to be too "far" off.
i prefer teaser betting.
i want to retain and capture more numbers close to the pointspread, not sell them off.


its important to always do the math to see what return you are getting for selling 6 points three times.


3T 6pt ties win pays +1550 at 5 dimes.
3T 6pt ties reduce +1750.
using your posted price of +1700,


if each leg paid +200 (which would be a poor return for 6 points)


100 wins 200
300 wins 600
900 wins 1800
=============
100 wins 2600


at +1700 your getting nowhere near +2600.
we are wasting time with this bet.
the actual return per leg is closer to +160 (which is pathetic):


100 wins 160
260 wins 416
676 wins 1080
=============
100 wins 1656


you're gaining only 70c (+160 from -110) for a 6 point buy. terrible.
this is why you should always try to calculate what you are paying on any exotic type of wager. people see +1700 and think it is a way to make a lot from a little, but in reality it's a rip-off.
no one should be making this wager given the return offered.
this will never be a EV+ bet under any circumstances.
as alluded to earlier the 6 point dog money is going to pay +220/+230, 6.5 dog +240/+250, which can't compare to the +160 offered using this pleaser bet.

ADVICE >> play dog money lines or use ACTION POINTS.

[LT Profits]

while your point is a good one, at the end of this post we will find that the odds/return on this bet suck,
which will probably cause the end of discussion on this topic.


ADVICE >> you are way better off using ACTION POINT bets on any dog you believe will cover 6 extra points.


back to the pleaser.
undoubtedly, selling points around 0 would be preferred.
you do gain some edge from the fact the gm cant end in a tie.
and most non one possessions games are likely going to decided by 3 or more points due to fouling.
selling about 0 has to be preferrable than to say selling points from +11 to +5.


the fact remains, that the dead point must still be scored by the dog.
so, even thought taking +3 to -3 has only 5 possible final score outcomes, the dog must still score 6 points.
and if the gm ends regulation on the dead point, the small favorite would be a betting favorite in overtime.


some advice would to be never please favorites, they statiscally dont cover enough games by 6 extra pts to consider it.
work only with dogs, and crossing 0 is probably the best idea.
for a 6 pt dog its preferable to just use a reduced juice money line.
for 7-8 pt dogs its probably not a good idea to please.
these gms wont fall 1 or 2 enuf so again, use the dog money line.
when you get into 9-15 pt dogs your sacrificing/selling off some of the best/highest probability numbers that are
likely to fall. you really dont want be taking that 11 pt dog down to +5 giving away 5,6,7,8,9,10, and push on 11.
perhaps when the line exceeds 15, one might find some value selling off all the low teens 10-16 and keeping the single digits.

in pleaser betting you looking for situations that could be potential blowouts.
IMHO i find that pretty hard to predict.
its easier to find games/situations that are expected to land/fall near the number.
i give the linemaker and market a lot of respect for the betting numbers.
i dont expect them to be too "far" off.
i prefer teaser betting.
i want to retain and capture more numbers close to the pointspread, not sell them off.


its important to always do the math to see what return you are getting for selling 6 points three times.


3T 6pt ties win pays +1550 at 5 dimes.
3T 6pt ties reduce +1750.
using your posted price of +1700,


if each leg paid +200 (which would be a poor return for 6 points)


100 wins 200
300 wins 600
900 wins 1800
=============
100 wins 2600


at +1700 your getting nowhere near +2600.
we are wasting time with this bet.
the actual return per leg is closer to +160 (which is pathetic):


100 wins 160
260 wins 416
676 wins 1080
=============
100 wins 1656


youre gaining only 70c (+160 from -110) for a 6 point buy. terrible.
this is why you should always try to calcutate what you are paying on any exotic type of wager. people see +1700 and think it is a way to make a lot from a little, but in reality its a rip-off.
no one should be making this wager given the return offered.
this will never be a EV+ bet under any circumstances.
as alluded to earlier the 6 point dog money is going to pay +220/+230, 6.5 dog +240/+250, which cant compare the the +160 offered using this pleaser bet.

ADVICE >> play dog money lines or use ACTION POINTS.

Nice post. One more possibility exists at Heritage as they allow you to sell points within a parlay, so you can essentially create your own pleaser selling just enough points to give you an edge. Personally I only sell on straight bets, but that's just me.

[tto827]

Thanks wisdom. I figured it was a sucker bet, just wanted to see others opinions, and if it ever could be profitable, to which the answer is no.

[indio]

17-1 odds would be equal to 5.56%. Hence, for this bet to be ev neutral, all 3 legs must multiply to .056. To do that, all 3 legs must have a expected win rate of .381, or .4 x.4 x.35, or any other combination multiplying into .056

If each leg had an expected win rate of 35% (which is +185, and below market value for a 6pt move), the bookies theoretical hold would be around 23%. If each leg had only a market value chance of 32% (+212), the theoretical hold moves into the ridiculous range of over 40%.

[James D]

What major offshores even offer pleasers and action points? Major as in 5dimes, legends, heritage, Pinny, bookmaker, DSI etc etc?

Any answers are appreciated