Will ND, Kansas St, and Oregon all win out?

[mebaran]

Fair odds on this prop?

Using just implied prob's, I'm getting:

Odds K. ST wins first game (.80) x Oregons first game (.88) x ND's first game (.90)

and assumptions for the second games:

K. St (.75) x Oregon (.80) x ND (.80)

We're getting a no-vig around +229.

If I was offered this at +700, what edge am I effectively getting? (Also, are there better estimates for the last games of the season for each team?)

[Justin7]

ND at USC... I bet the ML will be much closer to Pick than -400.

[mebaran]

ND at USC... I bet the ML will be much closer to Pick than -400.

Thanks. I think even with an assumption of 50% for Oregon's second game, 60% for the others, you still pull trigger on +700

[mebaran]

OK, updated math based on futures for the last three games, I'm getting:

Oregon: 89.9%, 85.1%
K. State: 79.4%, 70.3%
ND: 93.9%, 42.6%

Total no-vig: 17.1%/+485

[gomiamigo]

Nope, they won't.

[gomiamigo]

Also, OU at OSU shouldn't be that high. See OSU's previous wins over #1 and top 5 OU and USC teams in recent years.

OSU won at OU a few years ago in OT with the worse team. OSU beat a top 5 OU team 23-13 earlier in the decade. 2001 OU only won on a PR TD over an OSU team with a losing record, and OU won the Pac-10 solo.

[chopperocker]

i see value in fading notre dame vs usc. kansas st and oregon likely go undefeated.

im taking stanford + the points vs oregon.