Do you think Ken Pomeroy wins?

[Emily_Haines]

He is basically the ultimate model guy. He is every bit as talented when it comes to statistics as any of the well know touts like Dr. Bob. If he is the god when it comes to models why does he have to sell access to his stats for $20 per year?

He does put out predicted scores on every game but I have never bothered to track and see if these picks win or not. I just assume they don't since I have not seen a thread where anybody has tracked and recorded them long term. Also if they did win I would think he could get more than $20/year. Well at least he has price he service correctly unlike the touts who all think they should get $1000+ per year.

[Romanov]

Already priced into the market

[uva3021]

linesmakers use pomeroy now, maybe 4-5 years ago

[TPowell]

He is basically the ultimate model guy. He is every bit as talented when it comes to statistics as any of the well know touts like Dr. Bob. If he is the god when it comes to models why does he have to sell access to his stats for $20 per year?

He does put out predicted scores on every game but I have never bothered to track and see if these picks win or not. I just assume they don't since I have not seen a thread where anybody has tracked and recorded them long term. Also if they did win I would think he could get more than $20/year. Well at least he has price he service correctly unlike the touts who all think they should get $1000+ per year.

of course the guy won a shit ton back in the day. Of course, oddsmakers began to catch up with him BEFORE he released his plays which lead to him saying **** it and selling his models

[evo34]

of course the guy won a shit ton back in the day. Of course, oddsmakers began to catch up with him BEFORE he released his plays which lead to him saying **** it and selling his models

Pomeroy certainly didn't win a "shit ton".. The guy wasn't even a gambler, as can be painfully seen by his post on why it is impossible to win at sports gambling.

[Emily_Haines]

Pomeroy certainly didn't win a "shit ton".. The guy wasn't even a gambler, as can be painfully seen by his post on why it is impossible to win at sports gambling.

I believe his post about not winning at gambling was in regards to the NFL and I agree with him.

[skrtelfan]

Pomeroy's error in the no one wins at gambling article was assuming the people that enter the Hilton actually know what they're doing.

[gmcarroll33]

He is basically the ultimate model guy. He is every bit as talented when it comes to statistics as any of the well know touts like Dr. Bob. If he is the god when it comes to models why does he have to sell access to his stats for $20 per year?

He does put out predicted scores on every game but I have never bothered to track and see if these picks win or not. I just assume they don't since I have not seen a thread where anybody has tracked and recorded them long term. Also if they did win I would think he could get more than $20/year. Well at least he has price he service correctly unlike the touts who all think they should get $1000+ per year.

You will get crushed blindly betting kenpom's predictions.

As for the $20 charge, well I'm sure he knows that 99% of the people viewing his website are only doing it for gambling related reasons. So basically I guess he concluded "why should I keep doing all this work for free, so that a bunch of gamblers can profit as a result of all my work?"

Once it became a pay site last year I asked him if he could add wingspan data for us. Didn't succeed with that. Oh well. $20 is dirt cheap for putting all that data out for free. It's a much better presented version of the information contained in statsheet to me

[LT Profits]

Pomeroy certainly didn't win a "shit ton".. The guy wasn't even a gambler, as can be painfully seen by his post on why it is impossible to win at sports gambling.

Actually Ken bet CBB rather heavily and still does. The blog you are referring too was regarding the NFL.

[Emily_Haines]

Actually Ken bet CBB rather heavily and still does. The blog you are referring too was regarding the NFL.

If betting was such a gold mine for him he wouldn't have been putting up this stats year after year for free.

[LT Profits]

If betting was such a gold mine for him he wouldn't have been putting up this stats year after year for free.

He obviously knows what he is doing and $20 is a steal for that info.

[Emily_Haines]

He obviously knows what he is doing and $20 is a steal for that info.

I thought for sure he would raise the price this year. But he left it the same

[tto827]

If he is as good of a stats guy as you all say he is, I'm quite sure there are one of two reasons for the low price, either he does not care much about profit, and wants to help people (but still needs to collect some $) or he created a formula, saw that $20 maximizes his revenue.

[evo34]

Actually Ken bet CBB rather heavily and still does. The blog you are referring too was regarding the NFL.

Is there any evidence of this? The majority of his posts are written by someone who sounds like he has never seriously gambled.

[LT Profits]

Is there any evidence of this? The majority of his posts are written by someone who sounds like he has never seriously gambled.

Do you read his blogs? He mentions games he bet, at what book (usually offshore) and at what lines.

[evo34]

I've read/skimmed the majority of his blog posts, and cannot recall any reporting what games he has bet.

[stevenash]

Jeff Sagarin doesn't charge his fee, his numbers are just as good, if not better.
Dunkel too, no fee there either.

KenPom so over hyped and overrated

[LT Profits]

Jeff Sagarin doesn't charge his fee, his numbers are just as good, if not better.
Dunkel too, no fee there either.

KenPom so over hyped and overrated

None of those have the stats that KenPom does, his matchup pages are priceless. Sagarin I don't think has any stats at all? He is strictly power ratings and nothing else. Good power rating mind you, but worthless when looking for matchups, especially pace ratings.

[Emily_Haines]

Jeff Sagarin doesn't charge his fee, his numbers are just as good, if not better.
Dunkel too, no fee there either.

KenPom so over hyped and overrated

You do realize they let you bet totals.

How does Dunkel or Sagarin help you with these?

[big0mar]

If betting was such a gold mine for him he wouldn't have been putting up this stats year after year for free.

Why not? It very likely could be a more sustainable and consistent profit-model for him. Dealing with sportsbooks and betting markets is a fukkin pain.

[CHUBNUT]

For an insignificant sum of money Pomeroys figures are valuable in that they show you what the opening line should be without any other input. Any movement from that should be scrutinised deeply before a having a bet.

[LT Profits]

For an insignificant sum of money Pomeroys figures are valuable in that they show you what the opening line should be without any other input. Any movement from that should be scrutinised deeply before a having a bet.

Exactly! I think people asking if Pomeroy "wins" are missing the whole point of his site. Just using the great information on the site to cap games yourself should make you a better handicapper.

[CHUBNUT]

linesmakers use pomeroy now, maybe 4-5 years ago

Yes, whats your alternative.

[skrtelfan]

anything worthwhile and public gets reflected in the line

[Professor1215]

I have been following Pomeroy via fanmatch every single day this season.

Pomeroy's winning percentage is in 70th percentile straight up YTD. He picks winners and proves it. I do not know what his record ATS is and I am not positive 70-80% WP on the ML is enough to profit. Additionally, the majority of the time his "line" seems to be within .5-2 points of pinnacle 80% of the time. Over the past week or so his winning percentage is in the 80th percentile.

Can you profit from this? Of course you can, but there is much more then just his picks. But I totally agree with the guy who stated you will get "crushed" if you bet Pomeroy blindly. His predictions have been posted for the remainder of the year. This tells us that injuries and suspensions are not a factor in his predictions and probably other things I am not thinking of.

I have seen some success when Pomeroy has a team winning by 6 points and Pinnacle has them at, say -3.5. Small sample size so there is no validity here, just something I notice.

And for what it's worth, I am up a few units using Pomeroy's data and I am nothing more than an amateur trying to get better one day at a time.

[evo34]

Most power ratings are having an unusally good year ATS thus far:

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/testncaaresults.php?orderby=cover%20desc&type=1&year=12

You are not going to win long-term by betting Pomeroy differentials.

[frongi]

if you can't make money betting based on kenpom's predicted outcomes, and he's the best there is at modeling outcomes of games, how can any model be profitable? I don't have an account there so maybe I'm missing something but it seems to me like the $20 gets you his predicted game results (based on his models).

[tto827]

if you can't make money betting based on kenpom's predicted outcomes, and he's the best there is at modeling outcomes of games, how can any model be profitable? I don't have an account there so maybe I'm missing something but it seems to me like the $20 gets you his predicted game results (based on his models).

You do get his predicted outcomes. Which do not account for injuries, along with who knows what else. I beg to differ that he is the best, but he is the best that makes it readily available to the public.

[JR007]

It's good for understanding "pace ratings"