Probability Question

[dodger33]

Don't need a rash of shit about it's not possible just looking for a simple answer.

System A hits 67% of the time
System B hits 55% of the time

If system A says team A covers and system B says team B covers is it mathematically correct to lay off the game or play team A for less. Or does it not even mean shit and play team A just as if system B had team B. Also if system A and B have the same team is there a higher probability of that team covering? I will give my 12 points tonight to whoever can answer the question accurately first.

[uva3021]

play both sides at their appropriate proportions

[dodger33]

If anyone can break this down into %'s I will give them 50 points.

[u21c3f6]

You didn't specify but I will assume all wagers are at -110. In any game where system A makes a selection, you play the system A selection. If system B has a selection in a game where there is no system A selection, you play the system B selection. You may wager any % of bankroll up to full Kelly.

Even if system A & B agree, the win rate would be 67%.

Joe.

[buby74]

team A has a 62.4% chance of winning if system A and system B are independent
67%*45% / (67%*45%+33%*55%)=62.4%
or in plain english either
system A is correct and system b is wrong
or
system B is right and system A is wrong
these are the only two possibilities so they are the two probablities you have to work out.
Please deposit the 50 point in my swiss bank account

[buby74]

Dodger33 I'm waiting for you to pay me or explain what was wrong with my answer

[dodger33]

exactly the answer i was looking for. if i forget to ship the rest pm me. thanks