Week 3 College Football Handicapper Report

Jeff Grant · 09-09-12, 03:51 PM

Week 3 CFB Betting Odds are out: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...ly-predictions

Jeff Grant · 09-13-12, 02:36 PM

Jeff Grant · 09-14-12, 10:39 AM

Western Michigan v. Minnesota

-WMU is 0-3 all-time against Minnesota
-QB Alex Carder is looking for his fourth 300-yard passing game against a BCS team, third against Big Ten
-The Broncos are 6-33 all-time against Big Ten opponents (2-5 under current head coach)

-Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill faced Western Michigan each year from 2008-10 while coaching Northern Illinois
-Gone 26-4-1 all-time against MAC opponents
-Defense has four interceptions this year, equaling their total from last year
-Kill is 2-2 against Bill Cubit (WMU coach)
-Third in the Big Ten in scoring, behind Ohio State (87) and Nebraska (79)
-Boast the top pass defense in the Big Ten, 12th nationally

-Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus Big Ten opponents

Louisiana Lafayette v. Oklahoma State

-Louisiana Lafayette ranks sixth nationally in rush defense (49 ypg)
-Backup QB Terrance Broadway completed 10-of-16 passes for 143 yards in taking over midway through the first quarter last week
-Excellent kicking game
-Offensive line is one of 13 that hasn’t allowed a QB sack
-Gone 5-1 in September under head coach Mark Hudspeth (15-2 since 2008)

-Oklahoma State is 8-0 all-time in the series, including wins last two years
-Won seven straight home games, longest such streak since 1984-85
-Earliest home kickoff since 2004
-Average score in this series is 41-15
-Lead the country with 23 tackles behind the line of scrimmage
-Didn’t force a turnover last week for the first time since 2010, rank 108th in the country in that category (first last year)

-Lafayette is 14-1 ATS L15 road games
-Oklahoma State is 10-3 ATS as a favorite off a SU loss

Arkansas State v. Nebraska

-Arkansas State has allowed zero sacks in first two games
-Rank seventh nationally in total offense (574.5 ypg)
-Recorded 34 first downs last week versus Memphis, most in school history
-Ran 98 plays last week, most since 1975
-Lost all nine meetings against current members of the Big Ten
-Posted at least 300 yards of total offense in 26 of L27 games
-Scored at least 30 points in its last eight games

-Rank 16th in total offense, averaging 535.5 ypg
-Last week’s loss snapped the team’s 10-game win streak in September
-Lost for the first time since the start of the 2009 season when rushing for 200 or more yards (won 19 consecutive)
-Surrendered 653 yards of offense, most since allowing 606 to Missouri in 2007
-QB Taylor Martinez is averaging 275.1 yards of total offense in 10 career September games
-Gone 10-0 SU, 6-2 ATS all-time against current Sun Belt Conference teams, average score of 47-7

-Both teams have gone OVER in their two games
-Cornhuskers are 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points

Jeff Grant · 09-14-12, 11:34 AM

With a senior quarterback, the BYU Cougars have won 10 of their last 11 games against the Utah Utes - by an average score of 38-19

Jeff Grant · 09-15-12, 09:19 AM

Penn State
Despite losing their first two games against the Ohio Bobcats and Virginia Cavaliers, the betting public is expecting the Penn State Nittany Lions to capture their first victory of the Bill O'Brien era on Saturday.

The Navy Midshipmen received a bye week after suffering a humiliating 50-10 loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Dublin, Ireland, which could lead to a bounce-back performance here.

I'm surprised to see a heavy amount of action on the Nittany Lions as six-point home favorites, considering the Midshipmen are 13-5 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog of seven or fewer points.

Texas A&M

One of the biggest movers on the odds board, the Texas A&M Aggies are receiving a lot of action after dropping a 20-17 decision to the Florida Gators as one-point home underdogs in their first-ever Southeastern Conference affair last week.

I'm not really interested in laying 13 points in this contest, as I believe the program needs a few more games to adjust to Kevin Sumlin's system.

Don't blindly land on the home underdog in this spot, either, with the SMU Mustangs failing to cover their two home games with a total of 56.5 to 63 the last two-plus seasons.

Virginia Tech

Based on early-season numbers, the Virginia Tech Hokies should win this game by three touchdowns, but the college football oddsmakers have established them as 10.5-point favorites. That should immediately raise a red flag to any handicapper when breaking down this game.

Sports bettors need to be careful laying this inflated number, especially with the Hokies going 0-3 ATS after posting a win of 35 or more points the previous week.

Arizona State

The Arizona State Sun Devils are off to a 2-0 start under new head coach Todd Graham, which includes an impressive 45-14 win over the Illinois Fighting Illini as 5.5-point home favorites last week.

If you take a look at the scores around the nation last week, you'll notice that the Pac-12 Conference enjoyed great success against non-conference opponents.
The public is buying into the hype.

The Missouri Tigers are currently listed as 6.5-point home favorites in this matchup, coming off a 41-20 loss to the Georgia Bulldogs in their first-ever game as a member of the SEC.

I'm not interested in playing an underdog vs. a host that's 22-5 ATS after allowing more than 40 points in its previous game.

Colorado State

The Colorado State Rams are one of my play-on teams this year due to first-year head coach Jim McElwain, but I won't be joining the party this week due to the amount of action they've already received.

Sports bettors will quickly notice that the San Jose Spartans have fallen to 11-point home favorites, which is 1.5 points lower than their opening number.

The public may be right in this matchup, with the Spartans going 0-3 ATS as home favorites of 7.5 to 14 points since 2010.

Florida Atlantic

The Florida Atlantic Owls have received enough action to move from 44.5 to 42-point road underdogs against the Georgia Bulldogs this Saturday, which is a significant move with this type of spread in Week 3.

I believe the action is warranted, especially with how lethargic the Bulldogs looked in their season opener against the Buffalo Bulls, only to come away with a visually-impressive win on the scoreboard against Missouri last week.

It's also important to note that the Bulldogs may get caught looking ahead to their second SEC game against the Vanderbilt Commodores in Week 4.

Skip Holtz

The South Florida Bulls opened up as10-point home favorites against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, but that number has fallen by 2.5 points at most spots.

Sports bettors are likely fading Bulls third-year head coach Skip Holtz, who has lost his first two Big East Conference openers in straight-up fashion as a favorite.

Paul Johnson

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets can ill-afford to drop their first two conference games of the year, suffering a 20-17 overtime setback against the Virginia Tech Hokies as 7.5-point road underdogs in Week 1.

Head coach Paul Johnson should have a focused bunch in this contest, especially after dropping a 24-21 decision to Virginia as 7.5-point road favorites in last year's meeting. He has compiled an impressive 24-12-1 ATS mark when seeking revenge in his career.

Jeff Tedford

California Golden Bears head coach Jeff Tedford is certainly on the hot seat this year, but he's managed to average 7.9 wins per year in his first 10 seasons.

The program has lost both of its games as underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points since 2010, but managed to cover the spread.

Urban Meyer put up some great ATS numbers before taking the Ohio State Buckeyes head coaching job, but Tedford's 13-3 ATS run as an underdog of six or more points is hard to ignore.

Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers

This situation is often considered a trap in sports handicapping, as most of the betting public will blindly bet a ranked team as a road underdog against an unranked host. I'm not sold on that angle here.

Florida has won the last seven meetings in the series, including the last six by a double-digit margin.

There's no doubt that the Tennessee Volunteers are looking to reestablish themselves in the hierarchy of the Southeastern Conference, but they haven't kicked off as a favorite against the Gators since 2004.

I'm not interested in laying three points in this contest, especially since I established the road team as a half-point favorite.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Michigan State Spartans

College football fans have watched a lot of close battles between these two foes, which has translated in the road team going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Taking a closer look at this situation is noteworthy, especially with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish currently listed as six-point road underdogs.

When receiving six or fewer points in this series, the visiting side has compiled an impressive 10-1 ATS record in that situation.

You need to really like the Michigan State Spartans to lay this type of number.

Jeff Grant · 09-15-12, 10:31 AM

Connecticut Huskies vs. Maryland Terrapins

The college football odds page really tells the story in this matchup, as it’s clear to me that odds makers are inviting as much Maryland action as they can possibly get, which is a major red flag when taking a closer look at the major storyline surrounding this game.

Maryland’s Randy Edsall will be facing his former school for the first time on Saturday, with both sides being motivated to come away with a victory. The Terrapins are surely in the middle of a rebuilding process, playing 12 true freshman in their season opener, while coming off a big 36-27 victory over the Temple Owls as eight-point road underdogs last week.

The Connecticut Huskies aren’t going to attract many casual bettors on their side, considering the offense managed to score just seven points last week against NC State, but former Terrapins defensive coordinator Don Brown has one of the better statistical stop units in the country.

I’m going to recommend that readers add the Huskies as one of their Week 3 college football picks, as Edsall failed to cover his three chances as an underdog at College Park last year.

Pick: Connecticut Huskies -2.5

Read more of my early thoughts on Saturday's college football card