CFB 2012 (also NFL)

[Madison]

posting on run between morning hoops and a meeting, but will be around later today to give your teaser a closer look.



i hear ya, dude. i know i'm a big dork. however, my record and my integrity are important to me, and i want to post legit records (even if i'm the only one really paying attention), and finish in the positive. if i do that, said beautiful wife is cool with this little avocation of mine (my sportsbook deposits 2012 year to date aren't even a month of her Target bill). bear in mind, the reason that i started posting on SBR was for money management, not for attention. i don't go on tilt when i have to tell the world (or at least a handful of people) first: "hey, check it out, i'm going on tilt."

As stated previously ... Be grateful it's Target and not Tiffany's.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Raiders/Broncos first half under 24' -103

NFL Week Fourteen updated card
3* Raiders/Broncos 1H under (2* under 24 +100, 1* under 24' -103)

[Rick22]

Biff - I really like UW's chances now that "BEETLEMAN" is out and Barry is back for the Rose Bowl. Arkansas can have that jerk...................

[BiffTFinancial]

Breaking precedent. Happens few times a year.

Current record 13-4 +13.1 U

The only one I'm remotely concerned with is Sea. Pick away boys.
3 team 10 pt tease

Den Even at Oak
@Sea even vs Arz
@SF even vs Mia

5U *****

3 teams with something to play for vs 3 teams pacingtheir bags.

WHY NOT ????

i'm officially on-board with this teaser. booking now. i got it at -120. ML parlay with those 3 teams is over -150. that's good enough for me.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Teaser: Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk (-120)

well, Thursday night with no college football just got interesting.

NFL Week Fourteen updated card
3* Broncos/Raiders 1H under (2* under 24 +100, 1* under 24' -103)
3* Teaser: Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk (-120)

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff - I really like UW's chances now that "BEETLEMAN" is out and Barry is back for the Rose Bowl. Arkansas can have that jerk...................

hey, Rick. Bielema leaving hurts bad. even worse, he did it a year after the perfect guy to replace him (Paul Chryst) left. i love that the senior captains went to Alvarez and asked him to coach. Badgers will be motivated. i actually like under a lot in that game (same with UW/Boise, Louisville/Florida). about 60% done with bowl prep, hope to be done by Sunday night.

[Smutbucket]

hey, Rick. Bielema leaving hurts bad. even worse, he did it a year after the perfect guy to replace him (Paul Chryst) left. i love that the senior captains went to Alvarez and asked him to coach. Badgers will be motivated. i actually like under a lot in that game (same with UW/Boise, Louisville/Florida). about 60% done with bowl prep, hope to be done by Sunday night.

like all 3 of those unders too biff, thanks for pointing em out

as for tonights game, lotta balls going with the 1st half under with manning against the raiders secondary.....good luck

[Rick22]

Looking forward to your bowl thoughts. When you going to delve into BB?

[Madison]

i'm officially on-board with this teaser. booking now. i got it at -120. ML parlay with those 3 teams is over -150. that's good enough for me.

Let's get it pal.

I need to remember to always check the ML differential. That's a must. On that note I will accept a SF or Den loss and move on but may consider a +425 hedge on Arz to lock in a profit. Hey, that's why I'm still afloat.

Will work on totals tomorrow hopefully.

[Madison]

Oh, and thanks for your time to scrutinize. A sanity check always appreciated!!

[BiffTFinancial]

like all 3 of those unders too biff, thanks for pointing em out

as for tonights game, lotta balls going with the 1st half under with manning against the raiders secondary.....good luck

thanks, Smut. yeah, those are my three fave unders. i like about 6 overs. i will post CFB thoughts this weekend once i get a chance to fully process. also, want to wait out the coaching changes, heh heh.

thanks on 1H under. Broncos start slow and it will take two teams to get this over (this season, these teams have not seen their 1Hs exceed 24 often). 8 or so drives, need average of 3 or less. pretty much rooting against 3 1H TDs, for punts and FGs. we'll see.

[BiffTFinancial]

Looking forward to your bowl thoughts. When you going to delve into BB?

thanks. i will get a lot of them out at once this weekend. been kind of decompressing and drinking this week now that i no longer have weekly pool. i'm about 60+% done capping bowls.

started awfully in CBB (0-4-1) and decided to call it quits for awhile. i don't do so well capping multiple sports at once. part of it is that i prefer college and there is so much info you need to process to find the edges, so many teams. once i get done with bowl prep, my goal is to spot play CBB and get back to even by new years then hit conference season hard. i think that first six weeks of conference season are most predictable portion of season. can't wait.

[BiffTFinancial]

Let's get it pal.

I need to remember to always check the ML differential. That's a must. On that note I will accept a SF or Den loss and move on but may consider a +425 hedge on Arz to lock in a profit. Hey, that's why I'm still afloat.

Will work on totals tomorrow hopefully.

Oh, and thanks for your time to scrutinize. A sanity check always appreciated!!

ML differential is what made it sing to me. BOL with your big play, Madison.

i will work on total thoughts too. initially inclined to play Bengals with Bank.

[BiffTFinancial]

Michael Irvin's glasses remind me of the Simpsons where Homer finds Henry Kissinger's glasses in the toilet.

[Madison]

ML differential is what made it sing to me. BOL with your big play, Madison.

i will work on total thoughts too. initially inclined to play Bengals with Bank.

Have done zero work but Chi/Min and Mia/SF are leans under.

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Broncos/Raiders 1H under - WINNER

[bane]

Tailed here. Thanks & Nice Hit!

[BiffTFinancial]

Tailed here. Thanks & Nice Hit!

woot!

[BiffTFinancial]

Have done zero work but Chi/Min and Mia/SF are leans under.

i agree with both of your under leans.

my total leans
KC/CLE under 38
NYJ/JAC under 38'
ATL/CAR over 48
BAL/WAS over 47'
STL/BUF over 43
PHI/TB over 48
AZ/SEA under 36

also like Chiefs TT under 15'

for teaser purposes, i would nominate KC/CLE under and NYJ/JAC under. teasing there gets us to the magical number of 51, which i think is huge for two games where we can't expect either team to score, much less both.

[Madison]

Ok, so here's what we both agree on

KC/Clv U 51
Arz/Sea U 48
Atl/Car O 35
Phi/TB O 35

I feel pretty good about SF/Mia U 52

Regarding the overs ... At this point in the season I would lean more under for teams with something on the line i.e. Atl/Car (more conservative game planning) while the opposite for teams with nothing to lose i.e. Phi/TB. Somewhat worried about this in the NYJ/Jax game. N/A in KC/Clv as both have proven to incapable all year.

Anniversary today only fitting to be married on Pearl Harbor day.

[2daBank]

like all 3 of those unders too biff, thanks for pointing em out

as for tonights game, lotta balls going with the 1st half under with manning against the raiders secondary.....good luck

thu night 1st half under is matchup proof bro...

[2daBank]

how much of a waste of money is it to put little bit on Teo to win Heisman? really wanna see a defensive player win, so sick of these clowns making this a offensive award, most important guy on a undefeated team seems more deserving than johnny fb to me.. of coarse the fact the freshman is -1500 prob means i already know the outcome unfortunately...

[groovybrandone]

would be sick to see teo win but it wont make people happy so it wont happen unfortunately

[2daBank]

would be sick to see teo win but it wont make people happy so it wont happen unfortunately

i put 50 bucks on him @ +450 for the hell of it..not gonna happen but whatever, now if it does ill even be happier! lol

[BiffTFinancial]

Ok, so here's what we both agree on

KC/Clv U 51
Arz/Sea U 48
Atl/Car O 35
Phi/TB O 35

I feel pretty good about SF/Mia U 52

Regarding the overs ... At this point in the season I would lean more under for teams with something on the line i.e. Atl/Car (more conservative game planning) while the opposite for teams with nothing to lose i.e. Phi/TB. Somewhat worried about this in the NYJ/Jax game. N/A in KC/Clv as both have proven to incapable all year.

Anniversary today only fitting to be married on Pearl Harbor day.

happy anniversary, Madison!

i hear you on the teams having something to play for, but Jets/Jags aren't hanging 7 TDs period.

Browns game has strong 19-10 vibe.

[BiffTFinancial]

how much of a waste of money is it to put little bit on Teo to win Heisman? really wanna see a defensive player win, so sick of these clowns making this a offensive award, most important guy on a undefeated team seems more deserving than johnny fb to me.. of coarse the fact the freshman is -1500 prob means i already know the outcome unfortunately...

i put 50 bucks on him @ +450 for the hell of it..not gonna happen but whatever, now if it does ill even be happier! lol

i hope you hit. i agree, though, the Manziel line says it all. that said, i'm rooting for Te'o since apparently Braxton Miller will be waiting for next year.

[BiffTFinancial]

Ok, so here's what we both agree on

KC/Clv U 51
Arz/Sea U 48
Atl/Car O 35
Phi/TB O 35

I feel pretty good about SF/Mia U 52

Regarding the overs ... At this point in the season I would lean more under for teams with something on the line i.e. Atl/Car (more conservative game planning) while the opposite for teams with nothing to lose i.e. Phi/TB. Somewhat worried about this in the NYJ/Jax game. N/A in KC/Clv as both have proven to incapable all year.

Anniversary today only fitting to be married on Pearl Harbor day.

at the moment, if i had to place it right now, i'd be picking 4 of these 5:
KC/CLE under 51
NYJ/JAC under 51
SF/MIA under 51'
ATL/CAR over 35
PHI/TB over 34'

i might go with Jets/Jags and keep my Browns under powder dry for Chiefs TT under 16. have to look closer but like that one a lot.

[Madison]

Don't usually like overloading one way or the other but took a first stab here at all under. Buying your Jax/NYJ but something scares me and I have no explanation.

Clv/KC U 51
SF/Mia U 52
Sea/Arz U 48.5
Jax/NYJ U 51.5

1U

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Chiefs team total under 16
2* Bengals -3 (-120)

NFL Week Fourteen updated card
3* Broncos/Raiders 1H under (2* under 24 +100, 1* under 24' -103) - WINNER
3* Teaser: Broncos pk + Seahawks pk + Niners pk (-120)
2* Chiefs TT under 16
2* Bengals -3 (-120)

[BiffTFinancial]

this pick comes with write-up

2* Chiefs team total under 16 - 1:00 EST Sunday. The Browns defense has been borderline competitive with the return of both Ataya Rubin and Phil Taylor to the center of the defensive line. With the pair in the lineup over the past three games, the Browns defense has held opponents to 66 yards per game rushing, 3.4 yards/carry, 18 points per game and an impressive 18.35 yards per point (as compared to these respective numbers without Rubin and Taylor: 133/4.3/23.5/16.17). Granted, those were against the Raiders and the injury-depleted Stillers and Cowboys, but still. On the other side, the Chiefs are among the league's worst at turning their rather pedestrian yardage totals into points (21.6 yards/point, neck-and-neck with Philly for NFL-worst) and are off an emotional win where they posted 13.15 yards/point. Cue regression on the Northcoast as Joe Thomas' friends on the defense do some talking for him. Hey, they might even talk themselves into sore throats.

may have just doomed this one with write-up, we'll see.

[BiffTFinancial]

Don't usually like overloading one way or the other but took a first stab here at all under. Buying your Jax/NYJ but something scares me and I have no explanation.

Clv/KC U 51
SF/Mia U 52
Sea/Arz U 48.5
Jax/NYJ U 51.5

1U

gonna mull this one over for a bit. odd as it sounds, the one that i'm not as sold on is SEA/AZ. at the very least, i could see arguments for replacing that one with PHI/TB or ATL/CAR. decisions, decisions.

[Madison]

gonna mull this one over for a bit. odd as it sounds, the one that i'm not as sold on is SEA/AZ. at the very least, i could see arguments for replacing that one with PHI/TB or ATL/CAR. decisions, decisions.

Agree with your logic. Not necessarily the team/game. My model tells me (proven again 2 or 3 weeks ago when I had 7 leans won 6 and lost) that the system works when you keep it tight i.e. don't get carried away, take your best 4 and live or die with them.

[BiffTFinancial]

passing on Army-Navy game. took time to get my YTD CFB record organized. my correction this week as to units was pretty much correct, but i apparently was a bit off on my record. this is final and confirmed CFB week-by-week regular season record for 2012. while the final record is nothing about which to brag, given where i was after Week Four, i had to go 66-45-1 +34u the rest of the way to finish up where i did and pretty pleased with that.

							YTD
Week	W	L	T	Units		W	L	T	Units
1	4	3		-1.51		4	3	0	-1.51
2	4	4		-0.64		8	7	0	-2.15
3	2	6		-8.96		10	13	0	-11.11
4	1	6		-10.76		11	19	0	-21.87
5	6	3		5.52		17	22	0	-16.35
6	6	4		4.34		23	26	0	-12.01
7	6	4		6.18		29	30	0	-5.83
8	6	3		4.3		35	33	0	-1.53
9	8	5		-0.3		43	38	0	-1.83
10	7	4	1	7.45		50	42	1	5.62
11	5	6		-4.24		55	48	1	1.38
12	6	7		-3.3		61	55	1	-1.92
13	10	5		9.35		71	60	1	7.43
14	6	4		4.68		77	64	1	12.11
15	0	0	0	0		77	64	1	12.11
TOTAL	77	64	1	12.11

[BiffTFinancial]

apologies that the graph is a little unsightly. i'm not a penetrating graphic designer.

[Smutbucket]

Way to bounce back regardless of going down early, many cappers dig themselves in holes early and dont know how to get out....

just started looking at the nfl card myself, and leaning saints, texans, and redskins...