EP36's Prop Shop/Team Total

[EaglesPhan36]

2nd halves were pretty brutal in the evening. All very close, but turnovers, etc. leading to losses. Still pretty solid for the season, but need to get going with the props damn it.

Props: 15-15 [-1.35]
Team Totals: 0-2 [-2.20]
2nd Halves: 29-15-2 [+12.25]

[EaglesPhan36]

10.4.12: Arkansas State QB Ryan Aplin Total Passing Yards Over 239.5 [-110]
Aplin gauged this Florida International defense last year for well over 100 yards rushing, so I expect that is still something they remember and will be looking to contain. That should be just fine for this prop though as FIU's pass defense is far worse than their rush D. Their pass D ranks 99th out of 124 FBS teams, giving up almost 277 yards per game. ASU has made a point that they need more explosive plays in their offense and this could be a perfect team to get those against. Aplin had two 300+ yard games to start the season, but has tailed off since due to tougher match-ups and blowouts. With FIU allowing better than this number to four of the five teams they have faced, Aplin should have chance to roll up big numbers.

[EaglesPhan36]

I know I said last weekend to stick to totals @ half time, but saw a trend and going to try this one.

[2nd Half] East Carolina +7 [-125]

[TallAzCrowe]

I was on wrong line

[EaglesPhan36]

Probably too dumb for my own good again it appears. Maybe this time I will learn to stick with totals only.

[bane]

EP, you capping or skipping Utah/USC 2H?

[EaglesPhan36]

Prop also crapping out. Looked good going into the 4th Q, but ASU has only had to run the ball because FIU gave up gashes of yardage. Really thought they would have hit a couple more big pass plays against this shitty D.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Utah-USC Over 27 [-115]

[EaglesPhan36]

Not going to be my night.

[bane]

Next time.

[SlowNsteady]

[2nd Half] Utah-USC Over 27 [-115]

does not look great but you still have a shot

[EaglesPhan36]

Props: 15-16 [-2.45]
Team Totals: 0-2 [-2.20]
2nd Halves: 29-17-2 [+9.85]

[Pick'nParlays]

Go get em EP

[EaglesPhan36]

10.5.12: Utah State QB Chuckie Keeton Total Rushing Yards Over 34.5 [-120]
A lot is being made of the defenses in this one, but I think BYU is going to be truly tested perhaps for the 1st time by the multi-faceted Aggies' offense. Keeton is a dynamic double threat who can burn teams with his legs and his arm. He has surpassed this number in three of five games this season, only failing to get at least 38 yards in two blowouts where the passing game did all the damage. Be it by designed runs or scrambling, I think Keeton is going to find enough room to edge past this number. BYU has frightening numbers vs. the run, but only two of the teams they faced truly tried to move the ball on the ground - Utah & Boise State and both had some varying success.

[EaglesPhan36]

Shit. Just realized I posted this 2nd half total in the wrong thread. Doh! Sorry.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1740032-sore-thumb-team-totals-p21.html

[2nd Half] Pittsburgh-Syracuse Under 28.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Props are killing me. Gonna grind through them this weekend, but if I am under .500 after tomorrow - I think my niche has been found for the season and that is 2nd halves only. Most of the props that have lost have been damn close or injury fukks, but losses nonetheless.

Props: 15-17 [-3.65]
Team Totals: 0-2 [-2.20]
2nd Halves: 30-17-2 [+10.85]

[swordsandtequila]

I'm with you, I need to weed out some of the excessive plays and stick to what pays. An occasional prop here and there, but it's easy to get greedy with so many games. Good luck this weekend.

[EaglesPhan36]

10.6.12: Clemson QB Tajh Boyd Total Passing Yards Over 279.5 [-130]
It should be a game where Clemson forces Georgia Tech to pick their choice of poison. The Yellow Jackets D has been shredded the last two weeks, allowing a 200 yard rusher and passer last week against Middle Tennessee State and a 400+ yard pass against Miami the game before that. On the season, Ga.Tech allows 240 yards against the pass but hasn't really faced any as dynamic as this passing/running game. Boyd has topped 300 twice in Clemson's last three games and the Tigers' passing game is averaging about 310 yards in the air per game.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Arkansas-Auburn Under 27 [-115]

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Michigan State-Indiana Over 25.5 [-120]

[swordsandtequila]

Get 'er dun!

[EaglesPhan36]

Split the half time totals. Michigan State really clamped down on IU in the 2nd. Ready for the next batch.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Arizona-Stanford Over 28 [-115]

[EaglesPhan36]

Boyd rolling. 251 in the 1st half. G.Tech-Clemson 2nd half line is looking like WV-Baylor last week, don't know that they can make it big enough. Hoping for something in the upper 30s ... but probably going to be 42ish maybe.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Georgia Tech-Clemson Over 35 [-120]

[EaglesPhan36]

West Virginia WR Tavon Austin Total Receptions Over 10.5 [-105]
Austin has been targeted frequently in the Mountaineers' fast paced attack. He has 11 or more receptions in three of the first four games and ten in the other game. Most teams try to roll more help toward the other part of the dynamic duo, Stedman Bailey, to keep his home run hitting from getting them deep. After seeing him torch Baylor, I would expect Texas to do some of that as well. That should leave Austin with plenty of chances in the mid-range game against linebackers and safeties to try and exploit his speed and quickness. Should be a back and forth game and that should mean Austin gets plenty of looks.

[bane]

Nice hit on AZ/Standford 2H!

[EaglesPhan36]

Turnovers killed the G-Tech/Clemson Over. Another split on those. Prop hits. Slightly up for the day. Need to finish strong.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Fresno State-Colorado State Under 27.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] UNLV-Louisiana Tech Over 34.5 [-115]

[EaglesPhan36]

Washington WR Kasen Williams Total Receiving Yards Over 68.5 [-110]
Williams has topped 69 yards receiving in three of four games for the Huskies. He is coming off a huge 10 catch, 129 yard game against Stanford. Formula is simple for me, at some point almost every team has to throw to keep up or catch up to the Ducks. Williams has to be a part of that for UW to keep the game close.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] UCLA-California Over 27 [+100]

[EaglesPhan36]

5-2 on the 2nd halves, another solid day there. Boyd prop won easy. Austin prop missed by one catch. Kasen Williams needs about 30 yds, not sure that will even come close. F-ing props are coming just close enough when they lose that it maddens me and makes me want to keep plugging away to try and beat this shit.

[EaglesPhan36]

2nd Halves: 35-19-2 [+13.45]

Officially just on 2nd halves for the season now. Ready to rock some shit tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

xxx