Love this time of year - baseball coming down the stretch, and football right around the corner. College Football has never been good to me but i managed to make a little money last year and feel i have a pretty good game plan for 2012. Many times i will start a thread saying i will make no more the x amount of plays per day etc....we all know sometimes i fail to stick by that, so i will just say that you can expect me to take shots when hot and scale back when cold. That has always been my rule of thumb in sports betting and i feel it works well for me. Units will range from 1-5 and maybe an occasional 10u play if i am really running well. Working on an auto-play that will be derived from a line movement trend at Pinnacle. I will label this *A1* and it will likely be for 3-5u per play.
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Hey dex. I silently follow your thread in bases. Im very knowledgeable in college football maybe more than anyone in the country I study it all 365 days a yr. I have made a couple threads but I dont like to share my plays (I took on John Ryan in bases but I ran hot at 61% 16 straight winners at one point) so I dont recieve much attention.
I am looking to discuss college ball with someone who has a similar passion in the sport. I can answer any questions you may have and have phone numbers to every schools weather reports as I know you like totals. Either way wishing you a great year and if anyone would like to wager or even 1000 sbr points in a head to head contest playing the wed line this season please pm me.
Thanks MILKComment -
whats up buddy - i definitely dont follow college sports (teams/players) like i do in pro ball, but i actually plan on reading up much more on team rosters/news etc on a daily basis.....definitely will hit you up via pm or may just call you out from the thread for info assuming you're lurking. Thx.Comment -
No problem. I'll check in occasionally, during the season I imagine I won't be on here as much, I use DB to watch the steam and study. I will provide anyone that pms me my home field advantage spreads for any team and Power rankings before the season begins. I also am in a position to watch alot of sharper players so I take advantage of that and too much forum-advice can cloud my outlook.
I only bet wongs and totals in nfl, I'd love to be able to bet some of the laydown props at the M but overexented myself some on futures which I posted in a thread I started. I'm small time 220 a unit currently but I work very hard and witha few bounce that go my way this year I hope to be a 550 unit by next fall.
Pm me and Ill give you my skype, aim or you can just go on Merge poker (27outstwicemiss) and find me before the season starts.Comment -
Thursday 8/30:
(3u) Minnesota -9.5 (A1)Comment -
Saturday 9/1:
(3u) Iowa -9.5 (A1)
(3u) Nebraska -19 (A1)
(3u) USC -39 (A1)Comment -
Good luck Dex
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gl - i agree with your plays, and I am starting to love Minnesota tooComment -
I hope everyone understands that i will not share my plays publicly. I have recieved alot of pms of people asking me to do so.I spend somewhere between 2-12 hrs a day on college football and I don't like the added pressure or responsibilty of giving picks. I also had a issue when i was younger that if i spent alot of time on forums (2plus2, covers etc)) I would read something that would totally affect my confidence in my plays and that was very upsetting.
I will probably avoid the forums during the season other than to check pms and this thread to see how DEX is doing he has made me some money this year in bases and I will try to return the favor to him. I simply will help with any questions regarding anything I can provide...I'll also buy anyone a beer when they're here if I'm not in a session where I'm yelling "chips!" very other orbit lol
Here's what I will provide at times... Dex i like minny as does most of vegas currently. I think Jerry Kill of Minnesota is in a position that he has to win, he has underperformed and I think UNLV is very vulnerable on defense they simply haven't recruited well the last few years and I see them being very young on offense. Home openers are really difficult to gauge normally but I feel as did RAS that minny is the play here.
However I hate the line that you got at 9.5 it's sitting at 8.5 at most online shops and I bought a full point when it moved to 8 briefly at 3 pm on wednesday to 7 ( I normally try to avoid 7 but my push equity and seeing the steam start to hit so heavy that I believed their might be a 3.5 point middle including 3 key numbers that i couldn't help myself) theyre a 10.5 point favorite in my eyes on the road but the uncertainty of their special teams and - turnover ratio last year, add in a coach on a hot seat, on the road alot can go wrong I made it a hf unit play, I'll buy more if necessary in the next week if I can find any indication that it's wise.
Loved Nebraska at 17.5 but that line got destroyed and it's at 19.5 everywhere now another RAS play (he is awesome so no surprise) and unless that line settles at 17 I have no real play there. I refuse to trust Martinez, he's been evil to me evrytime I give him another shot but Burkhead and that o-line will overwhelm that s. miss defense I just cant trust Martinez to do anything in the clutch even on 3rd and short.
I don't like the USC play I i know theyre going to put on a show and Silas Redd is a ridiculous pickup for a team that already has sooo many weapons. This will be a stomping no doubt but I could see this being a 42-10 game and no one would be unhappy in LA and the whole world would still say best team in the country on Monday.
I won't give outright plays but I do like some totals that I think will be juicy.
M. state- Boise just read anything about M state and how they plan to win games this year.
Michigan-Alabama Rb Toussant (spellcheck) is the biggest threat to any opposing defense and he is questionable for this game without him being 100% (and even with him possibly) I see alot of 3rd and longs for Denard another QB I don't trust as a pocket passer that has never impressed me outright with his arm strength. Michigan lost alot on defense and Bama will be showing you Eddie Lacy there next big rumbling back.
SJSU - Stanford This is a game that will be difficult to watch imho. You will see Stanford run the ball relentlessly and use that big o-line to push the ball methodically. SJSU is much improved returning a ton of starters but the sheer size difference up front might make this a very slow game. As we witnessed numerous times last year Shaw is not running up scores he is a class act and I expect much of the same this year. I have Stanford very undervalued not willing to lay that many points but I sure will be watching that 53 and hoping it goes a little higher but its doubtful.
Hope I helped in some way and I'm rooting hard for all you guys. Dex once again just skype or email if you need anything.
BOL EdComment -
Love the Iowa didn't see it, you did well on that one and will beat the closing line by a hook minimum I believe. If I had to play a teaser for slow +ev start to the yr. I'd 6pt 2 team bama -5.5 & minnesota -2.5
Until next friday Tc guysComment -
which is exactly why i hope you understand that i ask you not make a post like that....i want to read it but am holding off until after i make my plays. i meant more if i had a question about a certain player in the Sun Belt etc - you seem like the guy to go to..thxComment -
Sat 9/1:
(1u) Over Oklahoma/UTEP 62
(1u) Over Arizona/Toledo 63Comment -
No problem at all DEX, I will simply only reply to questions asked by YOU via PM or here in this thread I check SBR once, maybe twice a week your thread, John Ryan and LT profits are the only threads I follow. Hardly ever responding or adding anything so it will not be a issue.
BOL broComment -
damn - wanted to take under uconn for 1u but its moved 4pts already...see if any middle players buy it back before i commitComment -
Sunday 9/2:
(2u) SMU +10.5Comment -
there you go. square up with me on this one. i don't believe there's a number that can contain the total for this game. only reason it's not higher is because it's week one and you just don't see the 70's in week one. but i honestly think oregon will easily put up 60 just by themselves. and arkansas state has been known in recent memory to play well out of conference.
this game will take like 5 hours. both teams want to get in like 80-90 plays on offense. you know how these offensive nutjobs are these days.Comment -
only thing that scares me is BYU's defense, but i'll bank on leech having enough plays to put up 4TD's.
As for Ark St - here is a quote from their new head coach:
“I'm a big fan of Chip Kelly and his offense. He's kind of on the cutting edge and he's not afraid to take chances with new things."Comment -
yeah, gus malzahn inherited a great situation at arkansas state. wouldn't be surprised if they go on a tear after their "money" games at the beginning of the season and he lands a better job a la hugh freeze. well, i don't know if you would call ole miss a better job, per se...haha...Comment -
good luck with football chief i will look for your nfl plays tooCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Friday 8/31:
(3u) Michigan St -6.5
(1.5u) NC State +3.5Comment -
BYU is a team i will be playing a lot this year - they have an excellent defense and i messed up playing this over instead of my initial lean of the cougars. Leech's offense will take a few weeks to gel...
good hit flyfisherComment -
(1u) Michigan St -7.5Comment -
Dex you like MSU that much I liked them at 6.5 like I did south Carolina last night. 7.5 scares me. I wouldn't ofplayed sc last night if it was 7.5.
What's your thought?Comment
