Gamecocks, Tide, Ducks

noles79 · 08-12-12, 09:26 PM

Wit u on all 3. Think shoelace will be in for a long day. Sc should atleast win by 2td. Ducks thinking same. Also okl should roll too. N a&m only 7 to la tech. A&m can score a lot

nvrlose37 · 08-12-12, 11:34 PM

Like two of them except the Ducks. They will beat Ark st but Ark st can put up some points and even at Autzen may be able to survive the 35.5 pts. LMJ gone and who is the Oregon QB now?

jaygator · 08-13-12, 01:10 AM

Lol squares unite, you will learn fast that it aint easy winning on the road let alone by 7 or more.

diveoregon · 08-17-12, 02:25 PM

I wrote a bigger writeup in another thread, and keep in mind I'm an alumni and a homer. Despite that I have no problem laying the points on Oregon in this opener. The Ducks do lose LMJ, but are still 3 or 4 deep in the backfield. This is also a team known for putting on a show at home, the player feed off the fans, and the fans feed of TDs. Oregon will score at least 50 points in this game, and I can't see Akst getting into the enzone more that maybe one mishap. Add a couple fg's and Oregon still covers 37 points.
As for the QB situation, Chip would never leak this info, and may have not made the decision yet. It's between Bryan Bennett and Marcus Mariota, and will likely remain unknown until the week of the game. That being said, Oregon has a good problem, two more that capable guys. I anticipate Mariota, but many others think Bennett. Mariota was much more highly recruited, in the same class, and Bennett only saw time last year(when thomas was injured) because they weren't going to burn Mariota's redshirt for a second half and some mop up minutes. I guess that got longer than anticipated.

tobydicesare · 08-20-12, 03:13 AM

I believe they are a lock. South Carolina and Vandy are getting hyped b/c of the TV coverage. Anytime a game is on a major network, you hear the analysts even say the Underdog(in this case Vandy) are such a great team with such and such coming back and such and such in the offense, defense, etc. They have to play to the media and the media has to promote the advertisers and by directly promoting a mismatch of sorts, it indirectly helps marketing efforts b/c it keeps people interested like it will actually be an intriguing match-up. Watch these games in the future where it looks like one team should be favored by more and it is on a major network during primetime action and will see this hypothesis come out to be true.

Caser1356 · 08-20-12, 05:09 AM

Originally posted by nutinicnthndl

someone please tell me why south carolina -7 is not a lock? this is a team with conference and national title aspirations this year with STILL one of the stoutest defenses and heisman candidate lattimore.. also the Oregon Ducks should murder the spread and bama why not? nick saban whips the kids if they give up a first down

I will tell u excatly why this is going to be a better game then you think, not saying Vandy wins, but i don't put it pass them. Last year Vandy was on a hot streak once they put in the playmakers. SC defense and some key players will be gone. Vandy is returning most of the Offensive talent that we seen at the end of the year putting up 400some yards a game. Expect Vandy to come out there blazing Offense. I think there going to struggle on Defense, but like the saints, there going to make key moves like int., fumble recovery, and not get a lot of pentalties. SC, had the players last year and isn't going to look ready, there going to beat themselves. Vandy Win it by 3pts as SC can't make it happen at the end of the game with time expiring. Story of the game: SC beat themselves. Vandy: Better Coached, Better Offensively, Better Gameplan. Vandy comes up with a Win.

Odds of this happening 40%

redrum · 08-20-12, 08:38 AM

I like vandy at the half last yr it was 3-3 at the half

The Juggernaut · 08-20-12, 09:19 AM

Careful with SC. Vandy is a tough place to play these days. Very close games last year against GA and Arkansas.

Louisvillekid1 · 08-20-12, 11:11 AM

USC is far from a lock, I'd lean vandy

thetrinity · 08-20-12, 11:21 AM

oregon ark st should be a massacre, bama mich i duno really, vandy looks like a live dog to me, south carolina getting little respect on future lines

ConferenceChalk · 08-20-12, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by nutinicnthndl

someone please tell me why south carolina -7 is not a lock? this is a team with conference and national title aspirations this year with STILL one of the stoutest defenses and heisman candidate lattimore.. also the Oregon Ducks should murder the spread and bama why not? nick saban whips the kids if they give up a first down

Here is one reason Oregon may not murder the spread:
Chip Kelly in is career as a significant favorite
between 6-28 points: 10-4-1 ATS
28.5+: 3-5 ATS

teaserpleaser · 08-20-12, 04:27 PM

auguste is out but i dont give a fukk sc aint losing to vandy no way no how be real this is still vandy they'll hang around for a while maybe even a half but then they'll lose by double digits and Tex am aint losing to la tech new qb or not i have these two ml parlayed for to win a lil over a dime....

diveoregon · 08-20-12, 05:47 PM

CC-
Where did you get those figures? Because I have them at 5-4 ATS(shown below) when covering 28'+. 2-1 ATS vs non-conference over 28', and 2-0 ATS if you look 28'-55. If you look for patterns long enough in anything you'll find them, I would say the important thing to tak from the Chip Kelly era, more importantly still the BCS era, is that he's going to run up the score. End of the day PAC12 is fairly week, do get a conference championship now, but still need help with computers and committees choosing who plays for the natty. They need to win them all, and embarrass their weak non-conference opponents if they want to play for a championship.

2011
Missouri St (-56') covered 49
at Colorado (-31) covered 43
Wash St (-35) covered 15
UCLA (-31) covered 18

2010
New Mexico (-35) covered 72
Portland St (-51) covered 69
at Wash St (-35') covered 20 *starters sat entire 2nd half to avoid any additional injuries after Barner concussion
Washington (-36') covered 37

2009
Washington St (-35) covered 46

nvrlose37 · 08-20-12, 08:27 PM

The thing is though that Arkansas State isn't as weak as all the Oregon homers or anyone who doesn't pay attention to their games will give them credit for. Aplin is an athletic QB, senior one at that and he will get some points on the Oregon D. They aren't going to win this game but as your 2011 stats show, they were only 1-3 in games -30 or more. Arky St can lose by around 32 or so in a 49-17 game.

daneblazer · 08-20-12, 10:15 PM

Vandy always plays SC tough. They're an under rated team. Aaron Rodgers little brother at Qb. Lots of Juniors and Seniors. Combine that with SC being the flakiest team in the SEC means I'm steaming away.

diveoregon · 08-21-12, 08:31 AM

I am admittedly a homer, but not an ignorant one. You would have been better off citing Akst's returning upper class senior WR's and tight end that are all above 6', but seriously, don't give me Aplin as your arguement. The guy is mobile, but has thrown nearly as many picks in his career as he has TD's. Oregon's secondary is going to eat this guy up, there is no way Akst gets in the endzone more that once.

nvrlose37 · 08-21-12, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by diveoregon

I am admittedly a homer, but not an ignorant one. You would have been better off citing Akst's returning upper class senior WR's and tight end that are all above 6', but seriously, don't give me Aplin as your arguement. The guy is mobile, but has thrown nearly as many picks in his career as he has TD's. Oregon's secondary is going to eat this guy up, there is no way Akst gets in the endzone more that once.

Good point, he does seem to hurt his value in Jay Cutler like approach. Yet Im hardpressed to see how Oregon's D is getting so much credit. How often do they hold teams to minimal points? Arky st isnt Missouri st or New Mexico.

diveoregon · 08-21-12, 12:41 PM

Good call, but they're also not as good as any team in our conference. Maybe they're a Nevada(69-20), they're sure as shit not as good at a Tennessee team on the road(48-13). This team gets blown out!

nvrlose37 · 08-21-12, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by diveoregon

Good call, but they're also not as good as any team in our conference. Maybe they're a Nevada(69-20), they're sure as shit not as good at a Tennessee team on the road(48-13). This team gets blown out!

To play Devil's advocate, I think their team could rival an Arizona, Wash st, or Oregon St from 2011, they werent very good at all. Also, youre giving 2010 Tennessee way too much credit, they played like shit to start that season. And a team with an experienced QB and LMJ will easily start a season strong. Not the case this year so a 35+ can't be assumed by looking at the past. They will kill them, but not by 5 TDs.

diveoregon · 08-21-12, 02:12 PM

Best part is, we can smell it! After a long spring and summer, all of this banter preseason guesswork will be solved in just a week and a few days. I heard the band out there this morning on my way to the course, gives you a chill of thrill, gameday is just around the corner.

ConferenceChalk · 08-22-12, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by diveoregon

CC-
Where did you get those figures? Because I have them at 5-4 ATS(shown below) when covering 28'+. 2-1 ATS vs non-conference over 28', and 2-0 ATS if you look 28'-55. If you look for patterns long enough in anything you'll find them, I would say the important thing to tak from the Chip Kelly era, more importantly still the BCS era, is that he's going to run up the score. End of the day PAC12 is fairly week, do get a conference championship now, but still need help with computers and committees choosing who plays for the natty. They need to win them all, and embarrass their weak non-conference opponents if they want to play for a championship.

2011
Missouri St (-56') covered 49
at Colorado (-31) covered 43
Wash St (-35) covered 15
UCLA (-31) covered 18

2010
New Mexico (-35) covered 72
Portland St (-51) covered 69
at Wash St (-35') covered 20 *starters sat entire 2nd half to avoid any additional injuries after Barner concussion
Washington (-36') covered 37

2009
Washington St (-35) covered 46

I had overlooked the Portland State game (didnt' realize this game was lined) and statfox.com has 2010 Washington as (-38). Either way, my point is that once spreads get over 4 TDs it becomes less calculated. Not something I put a ton of weight on, but just wanted to point out that it's not a lock.

diveoregon · 08-24-12, 02:48 PM

Mariota named Oregon starter today. Based on what I've seen from the two QB's at practice and in the spring game, I am releaved and happy Chip made this decision. Not to say Bennett wasn't more than capable of running this offense, I just think Mariota has much more poise with the flow, and look forward to him showing off the accuracy that has been so hyped.
Side note, props to Chip Kelly for making this decision pre-season and allowing Bennett to preserve eligability for his likely transfer. Rumored landing spots are SDSU and Fresno St.