Front Page NCAAF Picks (Week 10, Oct 25)

Willie Bee · 10-24-08, 10:35 AM

Illinois -2½ to fight past reeling Wisconsin on the road

Game Time: 10/25/2008 12:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Wisconsin has lost four straight games, and their defense is looking worse each week. Illinois is averaging 484 yards per game with a balanced offense. Take the Illini.

The Wisconsin Badgers have been in a tailspin since blowing a double-digit lead at Michigan, and we do not see them recovering this week either vs. a good Illinois Fighting Illini squad.

The Badgers started the season 3-0,but the first two wins were vs. cupcakes and they did not play particularly well in their 13-10 win at Fresno State either. They have since gone 0-4 however, and they lost their last two games 48-7 here at home to Penn State and 38-16 on the road at Iowa.

We do not expect that struggling defense to suddenly rise up here, as the Illini are averaging 36.1 points and an impressive 484.4 total yards of offense per game. Illinois has also been extremely balanced, averaging 279.7 passing yards on an outstanding 9.4 yards per pass attempt, and 194,1 rushing yards on a very good 4.8 yards per carry.

Illinois quarterback Juice Williams is completing 60 percent of his passes and has 16 touchdown passes vs. just seven interceptions, and when you add in their powerful running game, we look for a rather handy Illinois road win here.

Free Pick: Illinois -2½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 10-24-08, 10:36 AM

Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Washington Huskies Over 54

Game Time: 10/25/2008 08:00 PM -
By: Doc's Sports | experts.covers.com

The hype in this one is all over Washington's Ty Willingham looking to show up Notre Dame for firing him. The money is on the Over when the Huskies host the Irish.

The Fighting Irish are coming off of a bye and that gives head coach Charlie Weis an extra week to develop scoring plays against a weak Washington Huskies defense.

Notre Dame can put points on the board but their weakness has always been on defense and this sets up for a perfect situation for a strong play on the Over. Coach Ty Willingham will show no mercy or let up, and will try to score points each and every time he has the football against Notre Dame, a school that fired him four years ago.

We will not worry if Notre Dame can cover this spread and just collect with the Over.

Free Pick: Notre Dame-Washington Over 54 (-110)

Willie Bee · 10-24-08, 10:37 AM

Play Cincinnati Bearcats & UConn Huskies Under 45

Game Time: 10/25/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

If you're a fan of defense, Saturday's Big East battle between Cincinnati and UConn is for you. Play the Under when the Huskies host the Bearcats in East Hartford, CT.

This Saturday's Big East combatants, the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1) and Connecticut Huskies (5-2), enter into this tilt with identical five-win seasons. The Huskies , however, have lost two straight games to North Carolina and Rutgers respectively. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are currently on a four-game winning streak, and are clicking on all cylinders.

Both teams have top flight defenses. Connecticut allows opposing offenses to average just 17.3 PPG overall, and 13.7 PPG at home in Rentscheler Field, which ranks them second in the conference. The Huskies secondary has been especially staunch, allowing 182.6 ypg while snagging nine interceptions, and allowing foes to convert only five touchdowns through the air. The Connecticut front has been a handful for opposing offensive lines as is evident by their 18 sacks. I expect nothing changes in this game.

The Bearcats are known for their balanced offense, but their D is extremely steady, having allowed only 19 PPG. The defense has been very tough against opposing ground attacks limiting their opposition to an average of 94.5 YPG, and just three touchdowns on the season. That's not a good omen for a UConn team that uses the ground attack, almost exclusively behind RB Donald Brown, to move the chains.

In conclusion, I expect this contest is going to be a hard-fought, low-scoring, smash mouth affair. Defense, defense and more defense.

Final Notes & Key Trends: UConn is 17-6 Under in their last 23 when the total is between 42½ and 49. Cincinnati is 8-0 Under their last eight October games, with the average combined score ringing in at 37 PPG.

Free Pick: Cincinnati-UConn Under 45 (-110)

Willie Bee · 10-24-08, 10:38 AM

No. 23 Kansas Jayhawks -1 vs. No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Game Time: 10/25/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Kansas will be the first ranked team Texas Tech has seen this year, and Mike Leach's bunch will fail the test. The Jayhawks are the play when the host the Red Raiders.

Our Saturday afternoon Big 12 football selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks at home against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The Red Raiders are 7-0 and ranked No. 8 in the country, but this will be the first ranked opponent Mike Leach’s men have faced this season with Kansas coming in at No. 18. If their previous two games are any indication, Texas Tech is going to struggle in Lawrence vs. the Jayhawks.

In the Red Raiders’ last two games, they had to overcome a halftime deficit to defeat a lousy Texas A&M team, and needed overtime to win their homecoming game vs. Nebraska. And since 1999, Texas Tech is 3-13 ATS on the road off a win when priced from -5 to +7 points, including 0-7 vs a foe off a straight up loss. Take KU.

Free Pick: Kansas -1 (-110)

Willie Bee · 10-24-08, 02:26 PM

Oklahoma Sooners -19 in blowout at Kansas St. Wildcats

Game Time: 10/25/2008 12:30 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

Oklahoma has the offense to cover this one on th road in blowout fashion. Lay the points on the Sooners when they visit Lawrence to face the Kansas State Wildcats.

I smell a blowout here. Oklahoma should be able to pass all over K-State's secondary. When OU runs the ball to balance the attack somewhat, they are tough to defend for anyone.

Kansas Sate has issues on offense in this matchup, and although QB Josh Freeman is a stud, when asked to carry the entire game on his shoulders like this one, he will fail. OU simply has too many weapons and a mission to get o the title game tied up with the hopes that Texas can fall in defeat between now and the end of the season.

Oklahoma's defense is not the same without Ryan Reynolds who is out for the year, but an opportunistic secondary may play a large role in this one for the Sooners. Kansas State had a total of 15 first downs last week, but gave up 24 of them to Colorado. While the Buffs failed to capitalize on most of those, although they still won, rest assured Oklahoma will take full advantage of that by scoring points.

Oklahoma-48 Kansas State-20...Lay the wood.

Free Pick: Oklahoma -19 (-104)

Willie Bee · 10-24-08, 02:27 PM

Fresno State Bulldogs -14½ bully past Utah State Aggies

Game Time: 10/25/2008 03:00 PM -
By: Dave Malinsky | experts.covers.com

Utah State is bad, truly terribly bad, and that will show in this game vs. Fresno State. Back the Bulldogs on the road in Logan as big favorites against the Aggies.

If we wanted to completely insult your intelligence it would be easy to do that in this one – we could make a case that based on their game flows no team in the country turns it on in the fourth quarter more than the Utah State Aggies! Which is an absurdity, of course.

But with a line move dropping this one right into the heart of our play range, we can go to one of our very favorite axioms in all of sports – Most truly terrible teams are even worse than they appear to be. So let’s get to work.

Why are awful teams worse than they appear to be? Because they rarely take the best punch from their opponents, and often see the other side merely going through the motions as they save energy for more important games. Because of that the scoreboards and box scores do not get a chance to fully reflect their ineptitude. Utah State is an absolute textbook example of that. Here are the scores by quarters for the Aggies so far this season:

1st Quarter – 7-75
2nd Quarter – 35-82
3rd Quarter – 9-85
4th Quarter – 66-38

So if you go back to our statement in italics in the first paragraph, you can see how the statistical case can be made. This is a team that has scored 56.4 percent of all of their points in the fourth quarter, and also has held the opposition to less than half as many points in the final period as in any other. But those numbers do not reflect a positive in any way. Rather, they are an indication of just how awful this team is, and that so much of what has happened in the final period has been a case of the opposition completely letting up, on both sides of the ball. Here is what does matter. At the end of three quarters they have been trailing by a combined 242-51. And in the first and third quarters, when both teams come out fresh, it has been a combined 160-16. That is ugly.

Now things go from bad to worse for Brent Guy and his team. Instead of an opponent looking to coast, they are going up against a fresh and rested Fresno State team coming off of a bye, and it was a break that the Bulldogs needed in the worst way, getting injured talents like WR Marlon Moore, TD Bear Pascoe, DT Jon Monga healthy again. With no distraction the Bulldogs will treat this one seriously as they focus on improving their bowl picture, which means that they mentally will not wear down late, and physically they can keep piling up the points – three of the top seven rushers in the WAC operate out of this offensive backfield, a rather remarkable count. They are off of back-to-back games in which they have topped 300 yards rushing, and with only Wisconsin holding them under 5.0 yards per attempt in a game this season, they can completely wear out a defense that does not like getting hit head on.

There is also little home field advantage in Logan, where the crowds wane as each disappointing season wears on. In the Brent Guy era they have been a home underdog over the past five games of the season six times, going just 1-5 ATS. That negative count grows by one more in this one.

Free Pick: Fresno St -14½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 10-25-08, 08:53 AM

Texas A&M +3 at Iowa State Cyclones

Game Time: 10/25/2008 07:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Texas A&M and Iowa State both have bad defenses, but the difference between the teams is that the Aggies have a passing game while the Cyclones are totally inept. A&M passes their way to a win.

The Texas A&M Aggies and Iowa State Cyclones just may be the two worst teams in the Big 12, but at least the Aggies have a decent passing attack, and they did give Texas Tech fits for three quarters last week.

Texas A&M is averaging 238.4 passing yards per game on a very respectable 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Their quarterback Jerrod Johnson is completing 62 percent of his passes, and he has 11 touchdown passed vs. just four interceptions.

Best of all, he will be passing against an Iowa State defense that is generously allowing 411.0 total yards per game, including 234.1 yards in the air on 8.6 yards per attempt. Now granted, the Aggies are just as bad defensively, but the Cyclones simply lack the offensive weapons to take advantage of this.

Iowa State has done virtually nothing offensively since the start of Big 12 play, averaging just 16.7 points and 280.0 totals yards per game in conference play. They have been equally inept on the ground (94.3 yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush) and in the air (185.7 yards per game on 4.8 yards per pass) in three conference games.

These teams are just about equal in every area except passing offense, and therein lies the key to this game as we look for Johnson to pass A&M to the mild upset on the road.

Free Pick: Texas A&M +3 (-110)

Willie Bee · 10-25-08, 08:57 AM

Arizona Wildcats +16 the play vs. USC Trojans

Game Time: 10/25/2008 10:15 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Arizona has cashed tickets in each of the previous three meetings with USC in this Upset Alert! Grab the vengeful Wildcats and the points at home against the Trojans.

A big battle in the Pac-10 kicks off Saturday night in the desert when the Wildcats play host to the USC Trojans at Arizona Stadium.

While the Cats have taken it on the chops the last six games, in this series they've managed to take home the money each of the last three meetings. From a technical perspective, road favorites off back-to-back shutout wins are 0-8 ATS when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS win since 1980.

Surprisingly, USC is just 4-11 ATS on the conference road off a SU and ATS win under head coach Pete Carroll, including 0-4 SU and ATS the last four.

With Arizona 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven tries as a home dog of seven or more points, look for the Wildcats to improve to 13-1 ATS as a conference dog with revenge here tonight in this Upset Alert! We recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

Free Pick: Arizona +16 (-110)