Lout's Picks 10/25

[Lout84]

5-3 last week and +5 units.

Still have not gone under 50% for any given weekend.

All plays are for 5 Units unless stated otherwise. 1 Unit = $100


Ball St -24
Vandy -9.5
Oklahoma -18.5
Missouri -21
Arizona +15
Tulsa -22.5
Utah St +16

Tennessee +7 (1 Unit)
Auburn +3.5 (1 Unit)
Cincy PK (1 Unit)
Pitt -8 (1 Unit)

[Lout84]

Vandy -9.5

SEC vs ACC

Another game in which the SEC shows it's superiority.
Loving Vandy at home in this one.

[Lout84]

Pitt -8

Normally, I don't like betting for a Dave Wandstedt coached team, but Rutgers is that bad. They nearly pissed away the game last week to UConn but Uconn managed to miss 2 FGs to lose the game by 2. I like Pitt to win this game at home after playing their last 3 games on the road (all wins).

[Lout84]

Oklahoma -18.5

Missouri -21

Cincy - PK

[Lout84]

Leans:

Tenn +7
Ohio St +2
Tulsa -22.5

[mmike032]

Tenn +7, how can you think they can play with Bama.
i locked in Bama -6 yesterday cause I know that lines gonna move.
I am no expert capper but I follow SEC religiously so can you give your opinion on that game.
my thoughts
Bamas D will be the best they've seen all year.
the UGA/Ten game could have easily been a 35 -14 game if not for 2 ints in the endzone by stafford. Tenn couldnt stop UGA from moving the ball.
Bama is a far better defensive team than UGA.

only advantage I see for Tenn is a home game

[Lout84]

Tenn +7, how can you think they can play with Bama.
i locked in Bama -6 yesterday cause I know that lines gonna move.
I am no expert capper but I follow SEC religiously so can you give your opinion on that game.
my thoughts
Bamas D will be the best they've seen all year.
the UGA/Ten game could have easily been a 35 -14 game if not for 2 ints in the endzone by stafford. Tenn couldnt stop UGA from moving the ball.
Bama is a far better defensive team than UGA.

only advantage I see for Tenn is a home game

mmike, thank you for posting. The reason why I am looking at Tenn +7 is because the last 5 years these teams have played, the score has been within 8 points of each other. Also, Tenn is at home, so my prediction for this game is Alabama wins by 3. Also, I believe Alabama is over-rated. Tennessee could upset the Tide at home.. I know they will gunning for them, just like every other team that plays the Tide this year, as long as they are rated #2 in the polls. JMO, take it for what it's worth.

[Trey333]

A worse Bama team beat a better Tenn team 41-17 last year.

70% chance of rain in Knoxville. Think that will help out the team with the Senior QB (Bama) over the inexperienced one (UT). It would also favor whichever team jumps out to an early lead, which is probably gonna be Bama.

[mmike032]

mmike, thank you for posting. The reason why I am looking at Tenn +7 is because the last 5 years these teams have played, the score has been within 8 points of each other. Also, Tenn is at home, so my prediction for this game is Alabama wins by 3. Also, I believe Alabama is over-rated. Tennessee could upset the Tide at home.. I know they will gunning for them, just like every other team that plays the Tide this year, as long as they are rated #2 in the polls. JMO, take it for what it's worth.

you never know in the SEC and I respect your opinions on games.
however Bama is better this year than the previous 3 yrs and Tenn is far worse than the past 3 yrs. JMO though.
GL with your picks I'll probally tale you on a few.

[Lout84]

It's just a lean so far.. I wont pick it as a favorite pick, but might make a small play of $250 on it.

[Jimmydafreak]

mmike, thank you for posting. The reason why I am looking at Tenn +7 is because the last 5 years these teams have played, the score has been within 8 points of each other. Also, Tenn is at home, so my prediction for this game is Alabama wins by 3. Also, I believe Alabama is over-rated. Tennessee could upset the Tide at home.. I know they will gunning for them, just like every other team that plays the Tide this year, as long as they are rated #2 in the polls. JMO, take it for what it's worth.

Add a zero to your prediction and you'll be close. Bama will win this game much closer to 30 points than 3 points. This is by far the easiest play on the board. People who actually think that the Vols have a snowballs chance in hell of covering this spread have no clue about the depth of the hatred Bama players & fans have for Tennessee & Philapottamus.

This is Bama's biggest game of the year . . . by far!!! They would rather beat Tennessee than Auburn & LSU combined!!! In fact a portion of Bama's off week was not spent preparing for Ole' Miss. Some of it was used to prep for Tennessee.

Last year was the first time Saban (as head coach of Bama) & Philapottamus went head-to-head, and the result was a 41-17 demolition by Bama. And this was when Tennessee had a significant talent advantage. This year the talent is much more even. Philapottamus was outcoached by a huge margin last year's game, and it'll be the same story this year, except probably worse because the Vols have zero chance of scoring 17 points in this game.

There won't be any let-downs by Bama in this game, second half or otherwise. Just like last year, this game will be a HUGE blowout plain and simple!!!

Also, because Tennessee is so bad this year, there are many unsold tickets and Bama fans are snatching them up at face value left and right. This may be the largest Bama crowd in Neyland Stadium in the long history of this rivalry.

The loudest Rammer Jammer ever in Bryant-Denny stadium occurred after last year's blowout. This year will be the loudest Rammer Jammer ever in Neyland Stadium.

2007 Rammer Jammer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNJpG2kj4w0

If you think I'm over-stating the level a hatred Bama fans have for Tennessee, check out this video!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt2BAfhUHX0

Do yourself a favor a make this your biggest play of the week!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

[Jimmydafreak]

Also, I spoke to 3 of my Tennessee friends today (as I always do on Bama/Tennessee week), and all 3 know the ass-whoopin' is coming (again), and know there's nothing Tennessee can do about it.

This game is even easier than my Arkansas +17 & Arkansas ML play against Auburn a couple of weeks ago!!!

This is the GOY!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

[spongerat]

like your picks, are they all for the same number of units?

also are you staying on pittsburg even though pags is on rutgers?

[Lout84]

like your picks, are they all for the same number of units?

also are you staying on pittsburg even though pags is on rutgers?

All my picks are for 5 Units. 1 Unit = $100

When pags differs from me on a play, I normally either drop it off the list or reduce the play. In this case, I feel very confident about Pitt, I will reduce the play to 2.5 units.

Last week we differed on the LSU/South Carolina game, but I came out on top of that one.

[Lout84]

Also, I spoke to 3 of my Tennessee friends today (as I always do on Bama/Tennessee week), and all 3 know the ass-whoopin' is coming (again), and know there's nothing Tennessee can do about it.

This game is even easier than my Arkansas +17 & Arkansas ML play against Auburn a couple of weeks ago!!!

This is the GOY!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

That video is hilarious. It has got to be some sort of joke. But, none-the-less, I get your point on the hatred. I will more than likely lay off of this one because I am not sold on either team. But, what you are not considering is that Tennessee more than likely hates Alabama an equal amount. Thanks for the input!

[Lout84]

I know a lot of you will be apprehensive to bet against USC after their dominating 69-0 victory over Washington St. But, Washington St could be beaten by most D-1 AA schools. They are horrendous. This line is far over inflated. Take Arizona +15 to keep it close with USC at home. Possible upset brewing this weekend.

Arizona +15

[Lout84]

Cancelling Auburn, Cincy, and Pittsburgh plays.
There was a huge reverse line movement on Pitt, along with Pags pick on Rutgers helped me decide to wipe them from the card.


Adding: Tulsa -22.5
Tennessee +7 (1 Unit)
Utah State +16

[pags11]

GL this week lout...

[Lout84]

Thank ya pags, gl to you as well!

[Jimmydafreak]

That video is hilarious. It has got to be some sort of joke. But, none-the-less, I get your point on the hatred. I will more than likely lay off of this one because I am not sold on either team. But, what you are not considering is that Tennessee more than likely hates Alabama an equal amount. Thanks for the input!

Acutally the hatred is not even close to being mutual Lout. Tennessee's feelings toward Bama is primarily those of jealousy & inadequacy primarily because they've never been able to match Bama's success. Bama's hatred in Tennessee is rooted in their quid pro quo with the NCAA to set Bama up for NCAA sanctions, and nearly causing the school to get the death penalty. There are still 3 active lawsuits stemming from those NCAA sanctions. In the course of discovery in a previous lawsuit, it was revealed the Phat Phil was in fact the secret witness against Alabama. That caused Philopotamus to be served a subpoena during Media days this year in one of the subsequent lawsuits.

And even though Saban came long after all this transpired, Saban is cognizant of the importance this game carries for the school, players and fans. For that reason, Saban spends more time and energy preparing for Tennessee than any other game. He did it last year, and has done it again this year.

Last year when Tennessee had a huge talent advantage (because of the sanctions), the Phat one was out-coached by a galaxy and he lost 41-17. This year the talent is very even, and Phatty will again be drastically outcoached.

I have posted Bama as a "Best Bet" on two other occasions this year. The first time was against Clemson, and the second time was against Georgia. Both times I posted that the games wouldn't be close. Last week I posted Ole Miss as a play. Prior to the Clemson game I posted an extremely long write-up in which I told everyone exactly how the game would play out, and predicted that the score for that game would be 31-17. It was actually 34-13.

To a capper on the outside looking in who doesn't fully understand the dynanmics of this game, Tennessee getting 7 at home appears to be an attractive bet. But trust me when I tell you this won't be a close game!!!

BOL!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

[Jimmydafreak]

Cancelling Auburn, Cincy, and Pittsburgh plays.
There was a huge reverse line movement on Pitt, along with Pags pick on Rutgers helped me decide to wipe them from the card.


Adding: Tulsa -22.5
Tennessee +7 (1 Unit)
Utah State +16

You should stick with that Auburn play Lout!!! Just my opinion!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

[Jcoz]

Thank ya pags, gl to you as well!

Lout,

I have similair feelings on Tenn. I think Bama is in for a shocker of a game. Not for any other reason but my gut says UT always wins a game that boggles the mind for fulmer when he needs it most and Cody is out this week, UT at home, at night.

I'm sure Jimmy has all the reasons in the world to believe Bama will crush UT this week, but my gut says different.

GL this weekend.

[NashvilleGambler]

Tennessee wins this outright. Playing the points and also MONEYLINE. Remember where you heard it. EveryBody and there Brother will take Alabama. Don't You think that this line should be around -17 or -21 Alabama?? You don't think EveryBody at Tennessee hates Alabama just as Bad?? Tennessee wins this Ball Game!!!

[Lout84]

I believe Tennessee will make this game close, and possible even win. I am only betting 1 unit on it as it is not one of my favorite plays.

I do like Auburn +3.5 but, again, not one of my favorite plays, and only betting 1 unit on it.
I will also lay down a unit on Cincy and Pitt.. I really like those plays, just see a little risk in them.

[roasthawg]

I'm against you on the Ok play...I got K St. +19. G/l on the other games!

[Lout84]

I believe Oklahoma will have the -19 point spread beat at half time. But, we shall see! Gl to you as well.

[SportNut]

Good luck Lout, Ball st. and Mizz, like it a lot.

[Hemlock21]

Ball st doesn't cover this week. E. michigan +24 is the correct bet

[Jimmydafreak]

Here's the loudest "Rammer Jammer" in Neyland Stadium history!!! LOL!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdcGJNkdqS0

FREAK OUT!!!

[Lout84]

Good thing I only bet 1 unit. Tennesse kept it close in the first half, and then just fell apart. Good call. On the bright side, I went 4-2 on my 5 unit plays so far (have Tulsa tonight). 0-4 for my 1 unit plays. Which leaves me at +6 units for the weekend. I still have not had a losing weekend yet this year!

[Jimmydafreak]

Good thing I only bet 1 unit. Tennesse kept it close in the first half, and then just fell apart. Good call. On the bright side, I went 4-2 on my 5 unit plays so far (have Tulsa tonight). 0-4 for my 1 unit plays. Which leaves me at +6 units for the weekend. I still have not had a losing weekend yet this year!

After losing big with Auburn during the week, I already had Bama locked in huge. And because Bama was a night game, I was unable to play anything but Bama. That game basically got me even for the week which was by far my worse week of the year.

It's a good thing I didn't bet my other plays because they were horrible. I would have lost my ass. If you made money on Saturday, you did very well because many people lost their asses.

Great job Lout!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

[pags11]

lout,

congrats on a profitable weekend...

[Lout84]

lout,

congrats on a profitable weekend...

Thank ya pags. Got my last game of the week (Tulsa). So that put me at +11 units for the weekend. And 6-6 for the weekend (including the 1 unit plays).

I can still say that I have not been under 50% for the year and have been in the plus every weekend this year.