CFB reverse line movement plays

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  • BadBeatBodog
    SBR MVP
    • 06-05-08
    • 1006

    #1
    CFB reverse line movement plays
    RLM seems to be coming up a lot on these boards recently so I went ahead and took note of all the plays that fit the criteria at the moment. Side percentage and lines from http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

    Colorado State:23% | +23 => +22
    Missouri:::::::::40% | +6.5 => +5
    SD State::::::::33% | +14.5 => +14***
    Baylor:::::::::::37% | +17.5 => +16
    Boston College:42% | -2.5 => -3 (Not 40% or below but it moved onto 3 which I think is significant)***
    South Carolina:30% | +3 => +2.5 (30% AND moved off 3?)***
    SMU:::::::::::::34% | +14 => +13
    TCU:::::::::::::30% | +1.5 => -2
    Duke::::::::::::31% | +5.5 => +3
    Syracuse:::::::39% | +25 => +24
    Georgia:::::::::31% | -15.5 => -15***
    USC:::::::::::::40% | -42 => -42.5***

    Question to those smarter than me: does it have to be less than or equal to 40% AND at least a one point move? If so Georgia, USC, SD St, BC, and SC don't qualify but I would argue BC and SC would fit because they moved onto and off the three, respectively.

    Edit #2: Turns out those five teams don't qualify, but because SC has only 30% and the .5 point move was onto three (which is significant, obviously) I like it as a pseudo-RLM play. Helps that I like SC in the matchup, anyway.
    "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

    "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
  • roasthawg
    SBR MVP
    • 11-09-07
    • 2990

    #2
    I'm on SDSU even though they killed me last week. The rest are no plays for me.
    Comment
    • Masu485
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-14-08
      • 7700

      #3
      Originally posted by BadBeatBodog
      RLM seems to be coming up a lot on these boards recently so I went ahead and took note of all the plays that fit the criteria at the moment. Side percentage and lines from http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm:

      Colorado State:23% | +23 => +22
      Missouri:::::::::40% | +6.5 => +5
      SD State::::::::33% | +14.5 => +14
      Baylor:::::::::::37% | +17.5 => +16
      Boston College:42% | -2.5 => -3 (Not 40% or below but it moved onto 3 which I think is significant)
      South Carolina:30% | +3 => +2.5 (30% AND moved off 3?)
      SMU:::::::::::::34% | +14 => +13
      TCU:::::::::::::30% | +1.5 => -2
      Duke::::::::::::31% | +5.5 => +3
      Syracuse:::::::39% | +25 => +24
      Georgia:::::::::31% | -15.5 => -15
      USC:::::::::::::40% | -42 => -42.5
      thanks a lot, i'm also trying out wagering based on reverse line movements tonight, on TCU.

      is it possible you could maybe do the same for NHL, becasue i can't really find a reliable place to get the info. sports dotcom doesn't seem to have it, and vegas insider's current lines seem to add 20 cents vig, so i don't really know.
      Comment
      • Masu485
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-14-08
        • 7700

        #4
        and also, i wouldn't play a game unless there was a full point move AND at least 60% action on one side.
        Comment
        • BadBeatBodog
          SBR MVP
          • 06-05-08
          • 1006

          #5
          Anyone that missed the edit I made to the original post take note because some of the plays I posted might not actually be RLM.

          Masu look at the website I gave in the original post http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

          Edit: Thanks for the info about RLM requirements Masu
          "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

          "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
          Comment
          • Masu485
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-14-08
            • 7700

            #6
            Originally posted by BadBeatBodog
            Anyone that missed the edit I made to the original post take note because some of the plays I posted might not actually be RLM.

            Masu look at the website I gave in the original post http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

            Edit: Thanks for the info about RLM requirements Masu
            thanks a lot, one stupid question though. in the pie chart, the red represents the away team, right? and blue the home team?
            Comment
            • BadBeatBodog
              SBR MVP
              • 06-05-08
              • 1006

              #7
              lol I had the same exact problem the first time using this. You are correct.
              "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

              "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
              Comment
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