DBLDOWN'S plays for Saturday the 18th

artie81 · 10-14-08, 06:23 PM

what i tell u about ur picks last week, below 50 %

Dbldown11 · 10-14-08, 11:11 PM

Good work artie!!!! Only problem is no one knows how you did cause you refused to post any picks. Do me a favor if you want to come in here look at my picks then post that you think my picks are bad WITH reasons as to why they are bad please do so. I encourage people to give me reasons why I'm wrong, it may help me look into the picks a little more and make a change if necessary. But there is nothing worse than someone who critisizes other people and dont provide any info or backup for what they say. Didnt your mother ever teach you that if you dont have anything nice to say you shouldnt say anything at all?!?!?

By the way keep in mind that I still have a killer record for the season. Last week was bad, and I think I may have been a little complacent after the previous killer weeks. This week I am buckling down and will turn it around. I have not posted any picks as of yet because I want to study each and every game as much as possible before making my decisions. But when I do post my plays please feel free to critisize any or all of them, but please only do it in a constructive way. That's one of the positives about this forum. It enables people to give their opinions on certain games. If you have a lean one way, tell me why, dont just say "You're an idiot you will go under 50%"

abc · 10-15-08, 03:35 AM

Don't listen to the haters, Dbl. Waiting to see what picks you got this week.

Superman455 · 10-15-08, 08:53 AM

Keep up the good work DBL. I enjoy you insights to the games. I just get tired of reading the haters that pop-up when you have a bad weekend..everyone had / has a bad weekend, but what gets me is that those are the same ones that sing your praises when you have a great weekend which you have done in the past many times. I would just like to see these "haters" post there picks so everyone can see exactly what is what. Again...Good work and I look forward to reading your insights for the remainder of the year

Dbldown11 · 10-15-08, 08:56 AM

thanks abc, and superman. I've had a really busy week. I'm hoping to have at least a few of my plays up tonight, and then the rest up tomorrow.

Sushkillah · 10-15-08, 09:04 AM

Good Job DBL, everyone has a bad week, ready to see what u got this
week

MaurySline · 10-15-08, 10:15 AM

yeah, i know you can do it , prove to that guy how good you bounce back off a bad week... ypu can do it!

Tigers1230 · 10-15-08, 10:22 AM

Everyone had a bad week last week. It was the first time I missed the BIG PLAY in 5 weeks. I know we each have been playing each others picks so I'll also be posting mine later today or tomorrow. GL to ya.

artie81 · 10-15-08, 10:54 AM

Ur right Ddown i am not hating on your picks but I will definitely give you some feedback, gl and no hard feelings

Dbldown11 · 10-15-08, 12:12 PM

thanks sushkillah, Maurysline, and tigers for the well wishes. Good luck to all of you as well, and lets have a nice bounceback week this week!

Artie: Sounds good man no hard feelings, and I look forward to your CONSTRUCTIVE feeback, haha.

Dbldown11 · 10-15-08, 01:49 PM

Ok, I'm going to post my picks kind of spiradically this week, since I'm so busy, but here's my first play.

Memphis +8 @ East Carolina:

This line is too high for a couple different reasons. First of all East Carolina has prove that they were in fact WAAAAYYYY overrrted after beating VA. Tech, and West Virginia in the first two games of the season. They have lost three straight games, to a BAD N.C. State team, a pretty good Houston team destroyed them @ home, and last week at a bad but improving Virginia team. East Carolina just does not seem to be very good right now. They have not been very dominant in any games (excluding the pathetic W. Virginia game) and that includes a 4 point come from behind win at Tulane.

Memphis on the other hand has shown they are a pretty decent team with losses to louisville, rice, and Marshall all at 7 or fewer points which would win this bet. Their one loss that was greater than this 8 point number was in the first week of the season on the road against a very solid Mississippi team. My play here is Memphis, I think it'll be hard for them to win straight up, but if they lose it will not be by more than a touchdown.

Dbldown11 · 10-15-08, 01:59 PM

Rutgers PK vs. UCONN:

I think it's time Rutgers got their first win of the season against a Division I school. Their last three losses all came on the road and none were by more than a touchdown. I think they will get enough done saturday to get this win. UCONN has a good record but has not proven much to me. They took a schilacking last week at North Carolina, in what was really their first real competition this year. This team only won by a field goal at Temple, and only beat Baylor by a field goal at home. This probably isnt the sexiest of picks, or the most popular, but I like it.

Tigers1230 · 10-15-08, 02:07 PM

you should be able to get a better price than a PK. It is at +1 on a bunch of sites.

Dbldown11 · 10-15-08, 02:31 PM

sounds good tigers, thanks for letting me know, i'll look into that

CaneDawg · 10-15-08, 02:42 PM

Taking a long look at Rutgers too.

Dbldown11 · 10-15-08, 02:51 PM

I'll post the rest of my plays tonight, gotta get back to work

Dbldown11 · 10-15-08, 04:44 PM

Wisconsin +3.5 @ Iowa

Wisconsin will not go 0-4 in the Big10. It just isnt gonna happen. Iowa is not a very good team, and Wisconsin is going to go into Iowa and dominate. I think they will pull away with a straight up victory in this one, but ill take the 3.5 for insurance. Not much explanation for this one aside from the fact that Wisconsin has some pride they need to fight for, and Iowa is not good enough to stop them.

Rice -3 vs. So. Mississippi:

Im gonna keep fading So. Mississippi until the lines adjust appropriately, this line is way too low. Rice has a record of 3-3, and are 2-0 at home. Now their 3 losses are to Texas, Vanderbilt, and Tulsa all on the road. The majority of teams in the country would lose on the road to all three of those teams. Rice has played two home games and won both in drastic fashion, the lesser win margin was 29 freaking points. Now Southern Mississippi isnt as bad as SMU or North Texas, but they are still pretty bad. They are giving up an average of 28 points per game, and have a horrible defense. Rice will move the ball up and down the field on them all day long. So. Mississippi does have a decent offense so they will put up some points in this one. But, not nearly enough to keep up with Rice.

Kansas +20 @ Oklahoma:

I would love for someone to talk me out of this pick, but I cannot do it myself. This line is outrageous for a Big12 conference game involving two of the better teams in the conference. Kansas has a decent defense, and a good offense. Oklahoma is gonna score, but can they really hold Kansas that low to cover a spread like this? Kansas has played two road games this year, they lost @ South Florida by 3, and won at Iowa State in a second half domination after starting the game a little too overconfident. I just cannot justify such a big line. And feel like I have to take my chances with a good team like Kansas getting sooooooooo many points.

Alabama -13 vs. Mississippi:

Alabama has has two weeks to prepare for this game, and correct their mistakes from the last game. And I believe it will show. They are kind of under the radar again with Texas jumping them to number one. I see them coming out and dominating this game from start to finish, and I dont think Mississippi will know what hit them. This is going to be their 3rd straight tough tough tough game, and it's gonna show this Saturday.

Marshall -3 @ UAB:

UAB has one win this season at it's against a DII opponent. They have lost every game this season by double digits with the exception of a 3 point loss at home to Memphis. Marshall is 3-3 with all 3 losses coming against BCS schools. They certainly are not blowing anyone out of the water, but they've had two weeks to rest and prepare, they should come out and win this one handily in preparation for next weeks big showdown with Houston.

Penn St -23.5 vs. Michigan:

Not completely sure if I'm gonna lay this juice or not, will wait for some feedback but my thoughts are this. Any team that can go into Camp Randal Stadium at night at win by 41 freaking points, can cover 23.5 at home against a horrible Michigan team that lost at home to Toledo......

Northern Illinois -7.5 vs. Toledo:

Now I understand that Toledo went into the big house last week and won, however all that did was solidify how bad Michigan actually is, it did not raise Toledo's stock in my book. NIU is one of the best 3-3 teams you will find. Their 3 losses this year come at a combined 11 points, with no single loss coming at more than 4 points. They were a slight let down last week, but their quarterback went out early so the double digit cover was in jeopardy the whole way. Toledo is horrible, they have two wins on the season, one @ Eastern Michigan and one @ Michigan, lucky for us this game is being played in Illinonis, so we dont have to worry about Toledo winning. Toledo has a below average offense, and below average defense. NIU is solid in both categories. Toledo kept it close with Fresno state....they scored 54 points which is impressive until you realize that Fresno St. has not played defense yet this year, and they gave up 55 points. Of their other three losses their smalles margin of defeat was 19 points, and that was at home to Florida International. NIU should roll in this one.

Western Kentucky -1 vs. Florida Atlantic:

For anyone that saw FAU's game last week you realize just how horrible this team is. Western Kentucky has played an absolutely brutal schedule so, their record is very decieving. Western Kentucky will have ZERO problem winning this game, and this is a play that I intend to bet A LOT of money on.

dont have time for more write ups....so here are the rest of my plays:

Cal -2.5 @ Arizona
Air Force -5 @ UNLV

Dbldown11 · 10-15-08, 07:08 PM

the Western Kentucky line has dropped to a PK.....Not quite sure why thats happening. Has anyone seen FAU play this year? Not sure why this is moving the opposite way but I hope it keeps up so i can hammer western ky on a ML if they ever become the dog. I can't see why in god's name they would ever become a dog though

Jcoz · 10-15-08, 09:53 PM

DD,

All I will say about that PSU game is this: The result at Whisky was at least somewhat predictable, given that Michigan came from behind to win a game they had no buisness winning against Wisky. Then, with a shot at B10 title still there, they cam out fired up yet lost ANOTHER heartbreaker to OSU when they held the lead with 6 min to go. That Whisky team was crushed by the time PSU got to town, a SHELL of the team they were before the michigan game.

Now, PSU has years and years of revenge on its mind and its a home game, so this might be a blow out anyways.

All I am saying is dont over value the performance at Wisky, because IMO, its not possible without the UM and OSU wins the previous two weeks.

Personally I am just staying away, I have a feeling michigan finds a way to cover, and yet I can also see a PSU beating, so I cant put to much confidence either way. Just my two cents.

GL this week.

Jcoz · 10-15-08, 09:59 PM

Also, The only game I have bef with (although when I capped the game it was NOT at 20 pts) is Kansas and Oklahoma. Kansas, if you look at the body of work, is not nearly as formidable a team as last year. Aquib Tlib was a huge part of who they were. Oklahoma should be able to dominate both Offensive and Defensive points of attack. Its a dangerous game and I think a 17-24 point win for Oklahoma is on the way. Kansas is a paper tiger in my mind after watching them much of the year.

I bought it down to 16.5 on Monday so that's full disclosure.

Dbldown11 · 10-15-08, 10:06 PM

thanks for your insights on both games Jcoz. I deffinately do not feel GREAT about either of these picks, and neither will be real big plays for me. I think that you bring up really good points about that wisconsin game, however Penn St. is still pretty good, and Michigan really is that bad.

Oklahoma is deffinately much better than Kansas. However 20 points is a huge amount of points to lay in this game. Especially when it's questionable how Oklahoma will come out after their loss last week. But like I said neither play will be big.

Good luck to you this weekend sir!

Dbldown11 · 10-16-08, 07:46 PM

Wow, all of my lines have moved so much in my favor......not sure how i feel about that......haha, I cannot believe that Western Kentucky is now getting two points at home against FAU for god sakes.

wal66 · 10-16-08, 09:46 PM

Obviously love the Alabama game. Will take a further look at a couple of your other games. Good luck with the card.

Jcoz · 10-16-08, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

Wow, all of my lines have moved so much in my favor......not sure how i feel about that......haha, I cannot believe that Western Kentucky is now getting two points at home against FAU for god sakes.

I'll tell you what I know what that feels like...so far I have been burned in that scenario this season....Hopefully that doesnt happen to you....