Sweetpete's Week 6 Picks/write-ups 10/4

**casper** · 10-01-08, 01:02 AM

Dude, like your thinking on all fronts......But, you are free to leave that table when the first moron splits 10s or stops on 14 against a 10-showing. (The craps equivalent is the ass whose hand hits the dice, inevitably producing a 7 when you have $130 out on the felt.)

At least sports betting doesn't want to make you hit your fellow gambler, just the mopes on the field.

UConn has been very plucky this year, decent play. But love the Notre Dame pick. (Stanford only beat Washington in Seattle by a touchdown, even after Jake Locker broke his thumb.) Love the BYU pick. Those BYU 25-year-olds know they have to stomp fools to bust the BCS.

I also like Georgia Tech reminding Duke that it's a basketball school. Duke comes back to earth big time.....How about Florida pulverizing Arkansas or Oklahoma pounding Baylor?

**pags11** · 10-01-08, 01:18 AM

GL pete...

**AMBlai01** · 10-01-08, 10:23 AM

I really like the Notre Dame and BYU picks but I am really hesitant of that UConn/UNC game.

I really don't think the UConn offense can do anything in the air without Lorenzen who is out for the foreseeable future. North Carolina is going to put 8 and 9 in the box every down. Also UNC seemed to find its stride offensively in the second half of the Miami game. It seemed like once they finally decided on which QB (Sexton) he could get into a rhythm. My only concern with UNC is if Davis continues to go with a a two QB system in Paulus and Sexton again.

Just some things to think about!

GL!

**jackpot269** · 10-01-08, 10:31 AM

Pete I like all 3 picks im on them to GL and lets cash these in pal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**sweetpete57@** · 10-01-08, 11:37 PM

thanks pags, GL to you too.
let's make some money on these Jackpot!

casper-- I'll be all over Florida (will probably add it as an official selection) and will make a nice play on Oklahoma. BYU will be my biggest play. I get nervous betting on all these huge Road Favs, but all 3 teams have a shot the BCS Title, all 3 play terrible teams, and all 3 know that running up the score won't hurt them in the rankings

AMBlai01--Those are good points about UConn/UNC. I tend to like nice-sized 'dogs in quality Non-Conference games like this. I'm trusting that UConn will assume that NC is focussing solely on stopping Brown during practice this week, and will derive plays to get around that. QB Frazer looked relaxed against Louisville and I think he may surprise people now knowing he's 'the guy' with Lorenzen out. The HC seems to confident in him too.

**SportNut** · 10-02-08, 12:14 AM

I like your ND pick, Goodluck!!

**sweetpete57@** · 10-02-08, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by SportNut

I like your ND pick, Goodluck!!

I'm liking this game more and more. ND is starting to hit their stride, especially at home

**themajormt** · 10-02-08, 04:55 PM

Did anyone watch the UConn game after Lorenzen went out?? I think their back up looked BETTER than Lorenzen. He had more zip on the ball and did not look green at all. I believe he is a Notre Dame transfer??

I think UNC will cover if they do not bring Paulus into the game... I am from Syracuse and have watched him play since he was in 9th grade along with all of his brothers...I do not feel like he is a good NCAA QB

**sweetpete57@** · 10-02-08, 06:54 PM

I agree--Paulus is bad, I'm not sold on Yates either. It takes more than a good half to convince me that he can lead his team past a decent opponent. This is my least favorite of my 5 picks, but there are too many questions about whether Yates will lead, and whether Donald Brown will be stopped. Seven points seems generous.

**sweetpete57@** · 10-03-08, 12:00 AM

Just made 6th and final pick. I had a great thursday and am ready to kick ass this weekend and get some SBR Forum respect back! GL guys

**Lout84** · 10-03-08, 02:00 PM

I hit up OU hard! Put 25% of my roll on it. That is how confident I am.

**sweetpete57@** · 10-03-08, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by Lout84

I hit up OU hard! Put 25% of my roll on it. That is how confident I am.

Everything thinks this is a look ahead trap game for OU, but when you're #1 you need to impress every week. They should cover, but then again Iowa St. almost beat 'em last year. Even still, OU is worth a shot. Careful betting that much of your bank roll!

**Lout84** · 10-03-08, 02:25 PM

I know I shouldn't have done that, and I have a little bettor's remorse. But, I am sure that will go away after I am up 25%! I have not been this confident on too many games. The way they have handeled everyone this season, including TCU.. wow.. Baylor should be a piece of cake. Not worried about Griffin at all.. he will have a tough time getting anything going against OU's fast defense. He won't be throwing for 3 TDs against OU. The toughest defense Griffin has faced is UConn. This will be a "Welcome to the Big 12 Freshman!" type of game.

I agree with you on people thinking this is a trap game because of what happened in Colorado last year. But, that is fresh in this Sooners mind, and it will not happen 2 years in a row. Stoops is going to run this score up as much as he can. And look for Bradford to be airing it out several times to get those Heisman voters talking. Bradford is already #1 in the Heisman polls, and there are not too many GIMME games like this one left on the schedule.

**sweetpete57@** · 10-03-08, 03:40 PM

ANother reason to bet on Oklahoma---Not much of a home advantage. I guarantee Sooner Nation fills 30-40% of the seats.

**letsgoflyers** · 10-03-08, 07:19 PM

Will Iowa cover?

Originally posted by sweetpete57@

Last Week 2-3 (Wins--'Bama, Texas-- Losses--LSU,Auburn, Ohio St.)
YTD 16-14-1, 3-1-1 Best Bets

Just got back from Vegas--and if Ohio St. hadn't allowed that stupid TD to Minn. allowing the backdoor cover, my trip pretty much would have been free. Son of a bitch.

Anyway, assuming people actual read this despite my sudden dip into mediocrity, some quick notes on gambling in Vegas before i make my picks--

DO NOT PLAY BLACKJACK AT $5 AND $10 TABLES!--It's pretty much guaranteed you'll end up with some dumbass tourist at 3rd base hitting 15s vs. a dealer's 6, staying on 12 vs. a King, and splitting 4s against a 10. Ridiculous.

THE SPORTSBOOKS MAKE A KILLING--I think everyone I talked too had some ridiculous parlay of like 8 games to try and make an obscene amount of money. Plus, I heard more about 5 times groans than applause after any TD in any game

DRINK YOUR ASS OFF. The free drinks make those bonehead blackjack players and backdoor covers a little more tolerable

(All Spreads Legendz.com at time of placing bets):

BYU -28 (-120) @ Utah St. BEST BET

Utah St. lost by 48 to Utah and 42 to Oregon. BYU is better than both those teams. BYU--#7 passing off vs. #84 pass. def. No home advantage either. Something tells me Mormon Nation will find ways to get tickets for this one. BYU 52-7

NOTRE DAME -7 vs. Stanford BEST BET

Despite his busted knee and fat ass, Charlie Weis' has this team playing with confidence and Notre Dame has a pretty easy schedule ahead and has it's eyes set on a BCS game. Stanford won at USC LY, and an upset is not out of the question, but Stan. is #105 in pass def., and QB Clausen has all sorts of confidence. N. DAME 42-20

UCONN +7 @ N. Carolina
UConn--#9 rushing off. vs. #65 rush. def. Donald Brown has been unstoppable, and UConn is 2-0 on the road TY. Even if UConn loses, the ground game will control tempo and keep this game close throughout. Roy Williams--er, Butch Davis has his hands full this week. UCONN 20-17

FLORIDA -24.5 @ Arkansas
Despite being stunned by Ole Miss (God punishing Meyer for kicking the FG to cover vs. Miami), Florida can still make it to the title game if they run the table. There's no better SEC team to take aggression out on than Arkansas. I've beaten to death the point about how awful Ark. is, and they've done nothing to prove to me otherwise. Florida won't let up scoring this week, and Arkansas won't let up turning the ball over. FLORIDA 45-14

IOWA +7.5 (-115) @ Michigan St.
Iowa's stunning loss at home to N'wrn gives us line value. Michigan St. isn't just a one trick pony with Ringer, but Iowa's defense has been successful on both sides of the ball too. I think Ferentz is too good of a coach to let his Iowa team collapse for the year. If Iowa doesn't turn the ball over (11 TOs in 5 games), they have a balanced offense too, and should keep it close. Mich St. 20-16

N. ILLINOIS +16 @ Tennessee
How UT is favored by this many points vs. a quality team is simply beyond me. NIU is a covering machine--6 straight. They barely lost to Minnesota and W. Michigan on the road to start the year. UT has Georgia on deck and don't expect a rowdy crowd to help out when your team is underachieving like this. Potential for a major upset here.
Tenn. 23-20

I'm with you on the Tennessee pick. Tennessee sucks. Do you really think Iowa will cover at Michigan State?

**oakas** · 10-03-08, 09:35 PM

I see alot of guys on Iowa this week and I really don't get it.

I have watched every play of every game of the Hawkeyes this year and they are not very good.

I would love to see the Hawkeyes prove me wrong here, but I can not see a cover in this game.

Good luck, pete.

GO HAWKS

**sweetpete57@** · 10-04-08, 12:15 AM

I'm more under the impression that Michigan St. isn't that great. I liked this game a lot more at +7.5 than I do now at +6. Iowa should have beaten Pitt, and and I think their defense is could enough to keep them in this game. MIch St. caught ND before the yhit their stride LW, and played some cupcakes early on. Plus, Cal handled them easily and I'm not sure how good they are

**sweetpete57@** · 10-04-08, 12:18 AM

BYU---24-0 after 1Q.... 34-0 after 3Q. These meaningless late scores and backdoor covers are KILLING me! Argh! I'm still bitter about Ohio St. last week