Tobys Picks 10/4

**Lout84** · 09-30-08, 03:49 PM

Your first 3 picks are a mirror of pags.

**tobycsh39** · 09-30-08, 06:37 PM

Yes first two picks are the same as pags but I already had those bet Sunday night. However, I'm glad he is betting them as well.

**tobycsh39** · 09-30-08, 06:54 PM

Utah -11

Ok this is turning out to be a great situational bet. Utah is not coming off a bye week as I stand corrected (thank you for the correction), but they were almost in a look ahead spot where they could prepare for Oregon St. And as posted below, they did rest most of their starters by early in the third quarter. They saw what happened last Thursday and know to definitely not let your guard down to a mediocre team or they just might ruin your chances for a BCS bid. In my opinion Oregon State played well over their head against USC, but remember it was in their own house. This week they will be traveling to Utah to go up against a solid Utah team. This is the same Oregon St team that went to Stanford and lost by 8 and went to Penn St and lost by 31. Can the Beavers really come out with the same intensity and play with the same emotion they did last week? The answer is no, I believe Utah comes into this game fired up, not wanting another upset to happen "especially in their own house" , and in my opinion, 11 is more than doable for the Utes.

Prediction: Utah 38-21

**tobycsh39** · 09-30-08, 07:02 PM

Adding 3* Arizona -20

**tobycsh39** · 09-30-08, 07:24 PM

Oklahoma St -24
I have gone 4-0 betting on A&M games this year, and I'm sorry 24 is more than doable for Okie St. I mean, lets look at the facts, A&M barely beat an Army team who had scored 20 points all year, and then gave up 17 to them in one game. Honestly A&M should have lost that game without the fumble return right before half. A&M has no speed on defense and Ok. St's high powered offense will definitely take advantage of this. Everyone saw what happened when Miami took the field in College Station and dropped a 41-23 licking on them. I'm from College Station and everyone has already given up on the team. Sherman has just not had the time he needs to get his type of players for this type of offense. Jerrod Johnson is starting at this point and Jtrain is expected to get more carries this week. People are waiting for this A&M team to finally look decent and its just not going to happen, they are that bad! Oklahoma St has waited years to finally get a conference win over TAMU and it looks like its finally going to happen. Also, if Jerrod goes down, McGee is banged up, and Tanaheel is not ready to step in at qb, so they could be in trouble if something happens. I look for OSU to score early and often, probably going up by 28 in the first half. Only thing that worries me is a late cover by A&M but I think Gundy blows it wide open so early that A&M's possession type offense will not be able to score quick enough to get the cover. The Cowboys are finally getting the respect they deserve and definitely are not going to slip up in their conference opener against A&M. I'm sorry folks, we are bad this year. Our defense will look confused all game and just will not be able to keep up with the Cowboys offense. I look for an early blowout and we just need Oklahoma St to hang on late in the 4th quarter, which shouldn't be hard. I mean we couldn't move the ball against Armys defense and the Cowboys second string has got to be better than them.

Prediction: Oklahoma St 52-17
A first half bet is also looming in the near future.

**tobycsh39** · 10-01-08, 12:53 AM

Man I hope I have a good week so I can atleast get more than 1 comment.

**pags11** · 10-01-08, 01:13 AM

toby,

I believe you are a good young capper, we need more guys like you around here...keep up the good work...

**tobycsh39** · 10-01-08, 01:59 AM

Thank you for the kind words as always pags. I give it my best shot! Just jumped on the Iowa train with you after reading a few articles, from some of the websites you have given me! However, I was not as lucky as you and had to settle at +8, I still think its a winner as I believe Iowa may win straight up. I hope we kill it this week and thanks for the support.

**tobycsh39** · 10-01-08, 02:01 AM

Adding 2.5* Iowa +8

**tobycsh39** · 10-01-08, 07:00 PM

Adding very late 2.5* La Tech +24.5 (no time for write up, sorry)

**unde0087** · 10-01-08, 07:04 PM

LT is going to get destroyed in my opinion but good luck

**tobycsh39** · 10-01-08, 10:23 PM

Not a good way to start the week. I told myself at the beginning of the year to stay away from Wednesday night games. I have bet 2 and have lost both. This will be my last Wednesday night selection of the year, and shouldn't have played it at all.

**pags11** · 10-02-08, 12:43 AM

toby,

that was tough with the whole first and goal for La. Tech late in the game...I thought the reffing was pretty damn fishy...not saying I thought La. Tech was the right side, but I felt the final should have been a lot closer...not sure if I told you but I never put more than one unit on any week night play...weird shit like that always seems to happen...

regarding the Iowa game, the number I got from bookmaker was +8 (although I posted my matchbook number), so I still think Iowa +8 is a solid play...GL...

**tobycsh39** · 10-02-08, 01:23 AM

Thanks pags, that is a great idea from now on!

From now on my week day plays will only be 1 unit. Good luck this week bro.

Adding
3.5* Tulsa Over 80
2.5* Oklahoma Over 63

**madworld** · 10-02-08, 02:35 AM

Go Utah!

Originally posted by tobycsh39

Utah -11

Ok this is turning out to be a great situational bet. Utah is coming off a bye week and has had time to prepare for the Beavers. They saw what happened last Thursday and know to definitely not let your guard down to a mediocre team or they just might ruin your chances for a BCS bid. In my opinion Oregon State played well over their head against USC, but remember it was in their own house. This week they will be traveling to Utah to go up against a solid Utah team. This is the same Oregon St team that went to Stanford and lost by 8 and went to Penn St and lost by 31. Can the Beavers really come out with the same intensity and play with the same emotion they did last week? The answer is no, I believe Utah comes into this game fired up, not wanting another upset to happen "especially in their own house" , and in my opinion, 11 is more than doable for the Utes.

Prediction: Utah 38-21

Just wanted to state that Utah is not coming off a bye week, but was able to rest starters pretty much after 3 quarters. (Played Weber State and was up 34-7 after 3). I am not betting anything on this game, but will be cheering for you. Good Luck. Go Utes!

**atxshsu** · 10-02-08, 08:43 AM

I like alot of your picks, what do you think about mizzou -12

**tobycsh39** · 10-02-08, 11:21 AM

Madworld,

You are correct! Sorry I looked passed that, I even remember watching the scoreboard on ESPN on the Utes because they were struggling early. Thanks! and Good luck

**tobycsh39** · 10-02-08, 11:25 AM

atx,

whats up bro, you could have just called an asked

. Um....this is one of those damn games where Missouri hasn't won in Nebraska in a long time, but Mizzou also hasn't been this good in forever. My gut tells me that Missouri is going to roll them! I talked to the DE and he made it sound like Nebraska doesn't look very good on film. Either way I'm probably going to lay a small bet on Missouri.

**khoale2004** · 10-02-08, 11:39 AM

if i would you i'll put 6 units on Iowa +8 that's one of my strong game on Sat.

**atxshsu** · 10-02-08, 02:22 PM

Another one i like is is Penn state +14 ...Purdue is weak this year. They just got rolled by a avg joe Notre Dame team and lost all hope for the season. I see Penn St. hammering Purdue

**tobycsh39** · 10-02-08, 02:52 PM

If you get Penn St at +14 you better bet your house, your farm, your car, your girlfriend, and everything else on it.

lol na I like that game to, Penn St will roll them.

**atxshsu** · 10-03-08, 02:00 PM

Tough way to start a weekend Toby...i noticed that you did not have the Great Notre Dame team on your bet list. Notre Dame -6.5 a little much for you

**tobycsh39** · 10-05-08, 12:27 AM

Ok, sorry I did not come through and finish my write ups guys. I am very superstitious and after I started the week 0-3 I vowed to not come back to this page until the day was over. Luckily, my superstitions helped and had a lot of luck on Saturday. Next week there will be write ups for every game. Sorry about the slow start and congrats to everyone this week! Lets kill the books again next week! Lots of potential games to bet so lets see how the lines play out.

Week Day games 0-3 (need a little practice here)
Saturday 9-1

Week 6 Totals: 9-4 +18.9 units
Documented YTD Totals: 9-4 +18.9 units

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 03:02 AM

toby,

good job this week...

**tobycsh39** · 10-05-08, 12:02 PM

Pags,

Thanks man. Great week for you brother! I'm not gonna lie, I did call my local 5 minutes before the tulsa game and laid a nice bet on Tulsa.

. So thanks for steering me the correct way man. I really owe a lot to you this season from what I have learned and the success I am having. Hopefully next week will be big for both of us again.

**Jesse Black** · 10-05-08, 02:18 PM

Hey Toby,
Nice job, thanks for sharing.