Big Ten weekend offers betting tripleheader
Big Ten weekend offers betting tripleheader
The Big Ten is taking a beating in the media, and the lashings won't let up here for a conference that is just 13-17-1 against the numbers and still reeling from the whipping the Ohio State Buckeyes suffered at USC a couple of weeks back. But now that the non-conference portion of the schedule is up, we should start to see some cream rise to the top while the dregs begin to settle on the bottom.
The Big Ten Conference sucks.
There, I said it. And the proof is right there in the numbers: As we mentioned in our Week 4 recap, the Big Ten went 3-5 ATS on the betting odds to fall to 13-17-1 ATS on the season. Michigan lost to Miami-Ohio. Indiana was beaten up by Ball State. But the signature defeat for the Big Ten was the 35-3 shellacking Ohio State suffered at the hands of USC. It hangs over the conference like a dark cloud ready to dump acid rain on the Midwest.
That doesn’t mean every team in the Big Ten sucks. And now that the non-con schedule is mostly out of the way, we’re going to find out in pretty short order who rules and who drools. Handicappers will be looking very closely at the quality of opposition the Big Ten clubs have faced up to this point. For this article, I will refer to the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and the Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) Top 30 power rankings.
Minnesota at No. 14 Ohio State (-18, 47)
Saturday, Sep 27, 12:00 p.m. (ET)
The Buckeyes (3-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) are languishing at No. 39 FEI and a more forgiving No. 8 LVSC. Minnesota (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) checks in at No. 29 FEI, but sits outside the LVSC Top 30. The Golden Gophers built their superior FEI ranking with crushing wins over Bowling Green (-4) and Florida Atlantic (+6). Ohio State failed to reach the pay window versus Ohio (+33½) and Troy (+21).
Chris “Beanie” Wells hopes to save the day for the Buckeyes after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury. And he could very well be the difference between OSU salvaging at least a trip to the Rose Bowl or not. Wells should get a lot of work on Saturday, too, with freshman Terrelle Pryor (155.1 passer rating) taking over behind center. If Pryor has a strong game and Wells is healthy, it’s safe for Buckeyes fans to come out of hiding.
No. 8 Wisconsin at Michigan (+6, 42)
Saturday, Sep 27, 3:30 p.m. (ET) ABC
It turns out we do need some Badgers after all. They’re one of the good guys in the Big Ten at 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, capped off with a tough 13-10 win at Fresno State (+2). Wisconsin is No. 7 in FEI and No. 14 LVSC; Michigan is No. 47 FEI and off the LVSC charts after going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS to start the season.
Wisconsin almost never gets any respect – not even from Vegas. This is the No. 13 rushing club in the nation at 238.7 yards per game, and No. 21 in plays allowed on defense at 194. The Wolverines offense is in total rebuild under Rich Rodriguez, dropping to No. 106 in the country at 290.7 yards per game. Mystique and Aura have both hightailed it out of Ann Arbor for now.
No. 23 Illinois at No. 15 Penn State (-14½, 57½)
Saturday, Sep 27, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC
Penn State (4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) looks and cooks like the best team in the Big Ten at No. 6 FEI and No. 7 LVSC. No argument there. Illinois, meanwhile, is No. 63 FEI and nowhere to be found in the Vegas charts, thanks to a 2-1 SU and 0-2 ATS record that includes a narrow 20-17 win over the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (+25). The Cajuns are No. 98 FEI out of the 120 FBS teams.
There’s a major disconnect between perception and reality when it comes to the Fightin’ Illini. They only got into the Rose Bowl last year because the game’s organizers wanted to maintain their Pac-10 vs. Big Ten tradition – and Illinois happened to beat Ohio State as a 15½-point road dog in Week 11. Even a blind dog finds a bone now and then. One more bad game on national television Saturday night, and the Illini will be ready for the glue factory.
The Big Ten is taking a beating in the media, and the lashings won't let up here for a conference that is just 13-17-1 against the numbers and still reeling from the whipping the Ohio State Buckeyes suffered at USC a couple of weeks back. But now that the non-conference portion of the schedule is up, we should start to see some cream rise to the top while the dregs begin to settle on the bottom.
The Big Ten Conference sucks.
There, I said it. And the proof is right there in the numbers: As we mentioned in our Week 4 recap, the Big Ten went 3-5 ATS on the betting odds to fall to 13-17-1 ATS on the season. Michigan lost to Miami-Ohio. Indiana was beaten up by Ball State. But the signature defeat for the Big Ten was the 35-3 shellacking Ohio State suffered at the hands of USC. It hangs over the conference like a dark cloud ready to dump acid rain on the Midwest.
That doesn’t mean every team in the Big Ten sucks. And now that the non-con schedule is mostly out of the way, we’re going to find out in pretty short order who rules and who drools. Handicappers will be looking very closely at the quality of opposition the Big Ten clubs have faced up to this point. For this article, I will refer to the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and the Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) Top 30 power rankings.
Minnesota at No. 14 Ohio State (-18, 47)
Saturday, Sep 27, 12:00 p.m. (ET)
The Buckeyes (3-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) are languishing at No. 39 FEI and a more forgiving No. 8 LVSC. Minnesota (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) checks in at No. 29 FEI, but sits outside the LVSC Top 30. The Golden Gophers built their superior FEI ranking with crushing wins over Bowling Green (-4) and Florida Atlantic (+6). Ohio State failed to reach the pay window versus Ohio (+33½) and Troy (+21).
Chris “Beanie” Wells hopes to save the day for the Buckeyes after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury. And he could very well be the difference between OSU salvaging at least a trip to the Rose Bowl or not. Wells should get a lot of work on Saturday, too, with freshman Terrelle Pryor (155.1 passer rating) taking over behind center. If Pryor has a strong game and Wells is healthy, it’s safe for Buckeyes fans to come out of hiding.
No. 8 Wisconsin at Michigan (+6, 42)
Saturday, Sep 27, 3:30 p.m. (ET) ABC
It turns out we do need some Badgers after all. They’re one of the good guys in the Big Ten at 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, capped off with a tough 13-10 win at Fresno State (+2). Wisconsin is No. 7 in FEI and No. 14 LVSC; Michigan is No. 47 FEI and off the LVSC charts after going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS to start the season.
Wisconsin almost never gets any respect – not even from Vegas. This is the No. 13 rushing club in the nation at 238.7 yards per game, and No. 21 in plays allowed on defense at 194. The Wolverines offense is in total rebuild under Rich Rodriguez, dropping to No. 106 in the country at 290.7 yards per game. Mystique and Aura have both hightailed it out of Ann Arbor for now.
No. 23 Illinois at No. 15 Penn State (-14½, 57½)
Saturday, Sep 27, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC
Penn State (4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) looks and cooks like the best team in the Big Ten at No. 6 FEI and No. 7 LVSC. No argument there. Illinois, meanwhile, is No. 63 FEI and nowhere to be found in the Vegas charts, thanks to a 2-1 SU and 0-2 ATS record that includes a narrow 20-17 win over the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (+25). The Cajuns are No. 98 FEI out of the 120 FBS teams.
There’s a major disconnect between perception and reality when it comes to the Fightin’ Illini. They only got into the Rose Bowl last year because the game’s organizers wanted to maintain their Pac-10 vs. Big Ten tradition – and Illinois happened to beat Ohio State as a 15½-point road dog in Week 11. Even a blind dog finds a bone now and then. One more bad game on national television Saturday night, and the Illini will be ready for the glue factory.
