Ontario University Football Week 5

[dwaechte]

It was a fairly ho-hum week 4 in the OUA, without any real surprises. The McMAster/Guelph game was a doozy, with two fairly even teams who are both fringe contenders going at it. McMAster pulled off two late touchdowns to snatch the victory away from Guelph on their homecoming weekend.

We've learned a lot about these teams so far, but without any parity in the league at all, it's hard to decipher which results are truly meaningful and which aren't.

For instance, the York Lions are so bad that virtually any team that face them can dictate the score. It's not how good a team is that produces the score, it's how much they want to beat them by. We pretty much have to throw all York games out the window when capping.

Common opponents are helpful, but you run the risk of putting too much emphasis on one or two games rather than the entire body of work. If two teams only have one common opponent, and one team played particularily well that day while the other played unordinarily bad, you're running into a trap.

All that said, here's what I came up with this week.


.56* Laurier/WATERLOO over 49(-113)

.525* Ottawa -38 over WINDSOR(-105)
.525* Ottawa/WINDSOR over 55(-105)

1.05* GUELPH -26 over Toronto(-105)

1.05* QUEENS -3.5 over Western(-105)


YTD: 5-3, +1.475 units

[tmlfan4ever]

Great work buddy, I have been looking through other sites to find some opinions on OUA Football or CIS with no luck. I personally like the look of the Western Mustangs which climbed to +7.5 on Pinny. Speaking as a Queen's Alumni, the homecoming party is a big distraction and the "home" crowd is not much of a factor because everyone is so drunk and don't know enough about football to cheer at the right time. IMO giving more than a TD against the #2 ranked team in the nation is silly, but obviously Queens at -3.5 was being hammered. Great observation about York, +56 is tempting this week but it all depends on the temperament of the opposing coach and when they decide to stop scoring.

[dwaechte]

Look at that, a reply lol.

Yeah there's not a whole lot out there about this stuff. Most of the google searches come up with things that are years old rather than any current analysis, recaps, or numbers. Practically the only resource out there for capping is the OUA website itself. But boxscores do tell most of the story in general.

Really, the only reason Pinny offers it is to draw people in. The limits are so low that they don't really care if they get creamed, and then anyone they draw in loses their shirt in other sports.

The biggest problem with actually posting plays on OUA is that if anyone did want to follow, they wouldn't be getting near the same lines. Queen's at -3.5 wasn't being hammered, it was just me lol. It's pretty sad, but that's the truth. If anyone makes a small limit bet they adjust anywhere from 2-5 points within 5 minutes.

I will say that really the only reason Western is #2 is because of that win over Ottawa, at home, that they didn't really deserve. They certainly stayed in the game, but IMO Ottawa played better and put up better numbers. Western's offense, despite having a stud QB like Faulds, isn't anything special. Their #1 receiver has had fumblitis and they lost a tremendous RB from last year. All that being said, there's no way I'd lay 7.5. I actually think Western is a decent bet at +7.5, but I'm very happy with the -3.5 I got with Queen's.

I've heard that Queen's has one of the best homecoming's around. Laurier's was last weekend and it was pretty sick, but I don't think it could compare. I go to Waterloo and our homecoming's coming up too, but it's always pretty lame.

[tmlfan4ever]

Here's hoping the Golden Gaels win by 4 and we can both profit.

I'll be back later and offer some of my opinions on the other games. That one just jumped out at me at +7.5 so I booked it.

The Laurier Waterloo total is already at 55, lol.

[fiveteamer]

gunna put a dime on York +56

let's just say, I have some info on this game...

[dwaechte]

gunna put a dime on York +56

let's just say, I have some info on this game...

Anybody who would book a dime bet on an OUA football game with a spread of 56 points must not like money. May I ask how you plan on placing this?

[fiveteamer]

Pinnacle

[dwaechte]

Pinnacle has $250 limits at game time for CIS football.

[fiveteamer]

limits are for squares.

[fiveteamer]

actually limits are 1.6k spread, $800 ML.

[dwaechte]

Huh? I'm showing the listed limits as 1k spread, $500 moneyline and totals, but with all games circled down to $50 on the openers, gradually sliding up to $250 by gametime. Can somebody else check this and let me know what they're seeing.

[fiveteamer]

Probably because I'm a square, my limits are higher.

Canadian University, Football - Fri 9/26
o indicates a circled "bet type" with a lower maximum. o indicates a circled "bet type" with a higher maximum.
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Maximum Wager: 1,606.77 CAD 803.38 CAD 803.38 CAD
Fri 9/26 9901 York o +56 -105 o OVER 64 -105
04:00 PM 9902 McMaster o -56 -105 o UNDER 64 -105
Fri 9/26 9903 Alberta o +19 -105 o OVER 38.5 -105
05:00 PM 9904 Saskatchewan o -19 -105 o UNDER 38.5 -105
Canadian University, Football - Sat 9/27
o indicates a circled "bet type" with a lower maximum. o indicates a circled "bet type" with a higher maximum.
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Maximum Wager: 1,606.77 CAD 803.38 CAD 803.38 CAD
Sat 9/27 9905 Ottawa o -39 -105 o OVER 58.5 -105
10:00 AM 9906 Windsor o +39 -105 o UNDER 58.5 -105
Sat 9/27 9907 Toronto o +30 -105 o OVER 57 -105
10:00 AM 9908 Guelph o -30 -105 o UNDER 57 -105
Sat 9/27 9909 Western o +7.5 -105 o OVER 47 -105
10:00 AM 9910 Queens o -7.5 -105 o UNDER 47 -105
Sat 9/27 9911 Laurier o -23.5 -105 o OVER 54.5 -105
10:00 AM 9912 Waterloo o +23.5 -105 o UNDER 54.5 -105
Sat 9/27 9913 McGill o +19 -105 o OVER 52.5 -105
10:00 AM 9914 Montreal o -19 -105 o UNDER 52.5 -105
Sat 9/27 9915 UBC o +7 -105 o OVER 38 -105
11:59 AM 9916 Calgary o -7 -105 o UNDER 38 -105
Sat 9/27 9917 Saint FX o -5 -105 o OVER 45 -105
10:00 AM 9918 Mount Allison o +5 -105 o UNDER 45 -105
Sat 9/27 9919 Simon Fraser o -1.5 -105 o OVER 43 -105
01:00 PM 9920 Regina o +1.5 -105 o UNDER 43 -105
Sat 9/27 9921 Sherbrooke o -12.5 -105 o OVER 51 -105
12:30 PM 9922 Bishops o +12.5 -105 o UNDER 51 -105
Sat 9/27 9923 Saint Marys o -18.5 -105 o OVER 45 -105
03:30 PM 9924 Acadia o +18.5 -105 o UNDER 45 -105
Canadian University, Football - Sun 9/28
o indicates a circled "bet type" with a lower maximum. o indicates a circled "bet type" with a higher maximum.
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Maximum Wager: 1,606.77 CAD 803.38 CAD 803.38 CAD
Sun 9/28 9925 Concordia o +27 -105 o OVER 50.5 -105
10:00 AM 9926 Laval o -27 -105 o UNDER 50.5 -105

[fiveteamer]

maybe max's are 160/80

not sure, every game is circled.

I see now, my bad.

[dwaechte]

No big deal, was just curious.

Adding .785* Waterloo +28(-105).