Pags' Plays 9/20

[Mr Handicapable]

Pags,

Take your word for it on Tulsa? Phil Steele has NM barely covering but he has Tulsa w/the #7 offense in the country? Didn't they make Paul Smith leave? I love San Jose St! They really battled Nebraska and Reed is a very good QB....transfer from Cal and better athlete than SJS can usually recruit! Wake has really treated me well in the past but they didn't defend too well vs Ole Miss? All the same...new QB Ponder for FSU hasn't seen speed like this! Do you like Notre Dame +9? The road team seems to roll in this matchup (visitor 7-0 SU) & Ringer doesn't strike me as a game-breaking RB....maybe 4th-5th round NFL talent imo? Thanks again for your time!

[Sina]

im going big on the over hopefully when it comes out on san jose state vs stanford.

but pags watch out, stanford might win.

[pags11]

etothep,

I think the line seems about right in the Va. Tech vs. UNC game...I have no interest in either side...GL to you this week...

mrhandicapable,

thanks for your thoughts on these games...I agree with a lot of what you are saying...there is NO way I could play MSU laying those type of points in a series that the home team has lost straight up 7 years in a row...that being said, I'm not sure I could take Notre Dame either...better games on the board IMO...BOL to you this week...

sina,

I'm not a totals player, but wish you luck on that...yes, Stanford could very well win...if they do, let's not hope it's by much...it wouldn't surprise me to see SJSU win the game though either...GL to you...

[detroit71]

Pardon me as a rookie, but since I follow Big Ten Football religiously, any true fan knows that MSU will dominate the ND defensive line. The only reason people are sceptical of their passing game is because thay haven't had to unleash it based on Ringers production. Hoyer only has to be average for the team to get it done. And I will add that based on who ND has played so far it hasn't been something to write home about,come on San DIEGO st and U of Scum. That is all.
I will gladly eat my words Sunday.

[pags11]

detroit,

I'm not on the game bud...was just asked my opinion and gave it...GL...

[masr]

I like your picks....im on Miss St. and Tenn
Good luck this week

[LT Profits]

San Jose State line is nuts, I give them a great chance of winning outright.

I also agree with Arkansas.

[jackpot269]

GL Pags, card looks good 2 me, lets all cash in !!!!!!!!!!!!

[SoonerBS]

Pags, it looks like another winning week for you, dude . . . . I may join up with you on that San Jose St play. I actually had this game as a "play on" game for Stanford back in July, but Stanford is a little banged up right now and San Jose St has been performing well. The only thing that scares me is that everyone seems to be talking about it and getting on it all over these boards.

I love the Wake Forest play and am playing them SU on the ML . . . . .

[pags11]

masr,

thanks very much...good to hear we are on those two together...BOL to you this week...

jackpot,

thanks for stopping by...for sure man, let's do it this week...

soonerbs,

always a pleasure to have you in my thread...thanks for your thoughts on the SJSU and Wake Forest games...keep up the good work my friend...

[Alry45]

Pags, good to see your picks this week! Tailing you on the AF & SJST picks (got AF @ +9, but SJST @ +8.5). Best of luck to you this week! First week im not playing my rebels either but hopefully we pull it out against a good vandy team.

[HAPPY BOY]

Love the Hogs to give Bama all they can handle. this game goes to the wire and won't be surprised if Arkansas wins out right.

[laxdjock]

Death, Taxes, and Pags' picks. I tend to drift from here after Fball season ends, but its good to see familiar names still around.

[STEELCURTAIN3288]

Pags Thanks For The Plays

Pags,
Thanks again for the plays do you see anyone of these dogs winning straight up this just curious thanks again for the help!!!! Also do you still like San Jose State at +8 vs. the early line of 10?

Thanks

[laxdjock]

I saw SJS +8 too.....not comfortable with that, buy who knows. I'm in on WVU -3 -105 and -1 -110 1st half.

[STEELCURTAIN3288]

I hear you I want to hear what Pags thinks!!!! I am thinking of just betting the over tonight in the WV game!!!!

[taurus]

I am thinking, and hoping, this is a big Dog week that we get once or more a year. Altho your AF and Arizona St picks surprise me a bit, I'll admit they are out of my geographic comfort zone. The others were no surprise, and I'm joining you on all of them.
Have agreat week and thanks for the wonderful effort you put into this.
t the b

[Akins]

Pags',
I was curious about these plays? Thanks! GL!

Pags',

Interesting pick with TN. Would you care to comment on this game? Also, do you have an opinion about the Navy +4 v. Rutgers; ECU -7.5 v. NCSt. I really do enjoy reading your thread every week. Thanks Again!

[pags11]

alry,

thanks bud...good to hear we will be on those two games together...GL to you this week...

happy boy,

that'd be alright with me...BOL to you this week...

lax,

appreciate it very much...good to have you back...GL this week...

steel,

I like SJSU at anything over 7.5...I tried to post sooner but I didn't have an opinion on the WVU total...

taurus,

always a pleasure to have you in my thread...glad we will be on the majority of the games together...thanks for recognizing my hard work and GL to you this week ol' pal...

akins,

thank you...I have the slightest of leans to both dogs in those games...GL...

[pags11]

Tennessee +8

These in-conference SEC games always seem to end up being hard-fought battles. I think we will see a similar type of game between Florida and Tennessee this weekend. Everyone is still talking about Tennessee’s loss to UCLA in week one and saying that they will get their doors blown off by Florida. I think it’s that type of thinking that can end up diminishing a lot of people’s bank rolls. Tennessee is a much different team at home, where they routinely draw over 100,000 fans. I’m as impressed with Tennessee RB Arian Foster (7.8 ypc) as I am with any running back in the country. He has a chance to finish the season as the all-time leading rusher in Tennessee football history, which says a lot considering all of the talent they have had come through the program. RB’s Montario Hardesty (4.9 ypc, 3 TD’s) and Lennon Creer (11.6 ypc, 2 TD’s) are also very capable backs and should help take the pressure off the Tennessee passing game. Much has been made of QB Johnathon Crompton’s ankle, but this is an injury he has been dealing with much of the fall. Crompton, while not Eric Ainge, is still a very serviceable signal caller. He has played in big games in the past and has been in the system for a number of years. He has a handful of pass catchers back from last year’s team, led by WR’s Lucas Taylor (12 receptions, 169 yds.) and Gerald Jones (2 TD’s). A key component of Phillip Fulmer’s teams is their usage of the tight end, and this year’s squad is no different as TE Brandon Warren does a great job. The Florida defense is definitely much improved, but this is by far the most talented offensive unit they have faced thus far this season, and on the road to boot. The Tennessee defensive unit always seems to play better at home, and they’ll need to this week facing Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin and crew. Florida is still searching for a go-to back and I feel that their offensive line has yet to gel, which should allow Tennessee to keep their running game in check and also put some pressure on Tebow. I give the Florida special teams unit the edge in this game, but intangibles go to Tennessee anytime they play in their home stadium. Tennessee will give a great effort against a talented Florida squad in what should be a great game.


Air Force +7.5

Is there a more underrated coach in the country than Troy Calhoun? The guy has taken a program from the doldrums and made them into a perennial bowl team. He’s done this despite working with athletes who are at the Air Force Academy to further their education first and play football second, which is a rarity these days. The good thing about the type of athletes he does coach is they possess a great deal of discipline. This is extremely important to note since they run an option attack and they understand how to play team defense as well as any team in the country. Do they have a bunch of guys that run 4.4’s? No. Do they have 6’4” WR’s who can pluck balls out of the air? Nope. Do they have five star, highly touted, recruits who got recruited by Alabama and USC? I can’t say they do. The bottom line, though, is that this team finds a way to stay in ball games and over the last two years is one of the best teams ATS in the entire country. Much has been made about Air Force not completing a pass in last week’s game vs. Houston. In case most people didn’t notice, Houston didn’t complete a whole lot of passes either since the wind gusts from the hurricane were making their way up to Dallas. One of the most important statistics, as I discussed last week with BYU, is a team’s ability to convert third downs. Air Force is always at the top of the MWC in successful third down conversion percentage, and this year’s team is no different. As much as I’m impressed with Air Force’s offensive attack, I’m even more impressed with their defense. They may be undersized, but they have a lot of team speed with many guys that can run sideline to sideline. A key technical trend in this game is that the majority of games in the last 13 years of the series between Utah and Air Force have been decided by single digits. This can not be ignored because these two squads are close in proximity, are usually well coached, and know each other well. Look for more of the same this week when both squads take the field in Colorado Springs. The Air Force players are early risers and I anticipate them jumping on Utah early and withstanding the punches Johnson and crew will throw at them throughout the game. Not naming a single player on the Air Force squad in this write-up is by design, as they will play great team football yet again this week.


Mississippi St. +7

Another game I hear people say, “How is Mississippi State going to cover this week when they only scored two points last week?” Well, first off they aren’t going to be facing Auburn’s defense, which could quite possibly be the best defensive unit in the country. Even though Georgia Tech has a great front four; they have some injuries to their line backing and secondary corps. It should actually be a little easier for Mississippi State to move the football this week. I thought that Wesley Carroll did a good job last week managing the game. The only interception he had was on a play where the Auburn defensive back made one of the more spectacular interceptions I’ve seen in a long time. With the injury to RB Tony Dixon’s groin, who’s listed questionable this week, back-up tailback Christian Ducre emerged to run the ball pretty well last week. Brandon McRae and Aubrey Bell will have to do a better job moving the chains on third down, as that is where MSU really struggled last week. This game isn’t going to be about offense for either team though; it’s going to be about defense. Mississippi State’s defensive unit has played extremely well so far this season and I expect more of the same from them on Saturday. SS Derek Pegues does a tremendous job in coverage and also on run support. As I mentioned last week, this is a unit that returns 9 defensive starters from last year and that the majority of these guys have been together for several years. You can’t underestimate the importance of a group of guys knowing each others responsibilities and trusting each other as this unit does. Georgia Tech also has some injuries on the offensive side of the ball. RB Johnathon Dwyer was banged up in last week’s game, and WR Demaryius Thomas is coming off a concussion. Also, QB Tyler Nesbitt told reporters he had a tough time getting out of bed the day after last week’s game because of the pounding he took from Virginia Tech. Look for PR Pegues to make a play or two in special teams, as field position will play an extremely important role in this game. This is Georgia Tech’s third tough game in a row and anytime you can get two well-coached, defensive minded teams and I can get a TD or more with one of the teams it sparks my interest. Both teams are coming off difficult defeats and may start slow, but that’s fine with me.


Arkansas +10

Most people don’t have very long memories and don’t have a clue about the type of success Bobby Petrino had at Louisville before he left for the NFL. Not only was he successful at winning games, but he is probably the single most spread conscious coach I’ve ever seen in college football. This week is his team’s first true test and I think they will be ready, and should benefit from their week off when their game last week vs. Texas was moved to later this season. Petrino can coach up his quarterbacks as well as any coach in the country and it should be noted that he has senior QB Casey Dick playing some outstanding football. Arkansas has implemented a short passing game that keeps the chains moving regularly and keeps opposing offenses off the field. Dick is aided by an up and coming running back, Michael Smith (7.1 ypc, 2 TD’s). Smith has good explosion through holes and will be challenged by a stout Alabama run defense. Look for Arkansas to open up their running game by first establishing their passing game. Petrino always puts an emphasis in using his TE’s and this year’s team is no different. TE DJ Williams leads the team in catches and will play an important role as the Alabama LB’s look to creep up and stop the run. Petrino wasted no time in recruiting two talented freshmen WR’s in Joe Adams and Greg Childs, who have made an immediate impact. Arkansas will have to step up its defensive intensity this week vs. John Parker Wilson, Julio Jones and crew. Arkansas will have to get a pass rush on Wilson and force him to check down on his throws. If they can keep plays in front of them and force Alabama to get in some long third down situations, they have a shot to stay in this game as Alabama has struggled on third down the last couple of weeks. This is Alabama’s first true road game of the season and while talented, they are still a very young squad. Going on the road in the SEC is no easy task, especially when you are a young football team. It’s also important to note that lately in this series most of the games have been very tightly contested. That trend can’t be ignored. Many people are questioning Arkansas and loving Alabama which has provided some line value. Arkansas will not roll over this week, in fact expect a terrific effort that will help put them back on the map in the SEC.


San Jose St. +10

Anyone know how many first downs Stanford had last week in their game vs. TCU? Six. How about guessing the amount of third down conversions they had in the game? One. Stanford is an offensively challenged football team and while they have a couple of good running backs, they are having problems finding playmaking pass catchers and QB Tavia Pritchard continues to struggle with his decision making. It doesn’t help that the Stanford offensive line has underachieved so far this season, but it ends up putting a lot of pressure on their veteran defense. That being said, anytime I can get an equally talented defensive unit, that has a comparable coach, and I’m getting double digits I have to give the team a look. San Jose State is quietly flying under the radar in the WAC and could end up emerging as one of the top teams in the conference. While I’ll admit the conference is down this year, one can’t argue with the great effort SJSU displayed week one at Nebraska, nor can they dispute the comfortable victory last week vs. San Diego State (who gave Notre Dame a heck of a game the week before). Dick Tome’s teams are always built around their defense and this year’s team is no different. They have an especially stout run defense, which will help them match up well this week vs. Stanford. RB Yonus Davis (7.1 ypc, 1 TD) is back to his 2006 form where he was one of the top RB’s in the WAC and the leadership he brings is immeasurable. QB Kyle Reed, a junior college transfer, has made an immediate impact and is a legitimate dual threat quarterback. He’s completing over 76% of his passes and has been able to distribute the ball to a variety of receivers. While WR Kevin Jourovich will miss this week’s game while still recovering from mono, WR’s David Richmond and Jalal Beauchman have emerged as guys who help move the chains. Both of these teams possess good special teams units and are very well coached. This is a big rivalry game as it pits the “poor kids” from the Bay Area against the “rich kids”. Both teams will be fired up to play this one. Expect a defensive battle decided by field position in which I’ll take the more balanced offensive team and the ten points.


Arizona State +7

You might call me crazy but I honestly think from a handicapping standpoint the best thing that could have happened last week to ASU was for them to lose against UNLV. Had they not, I probably wouldn’t have been on the game as the line would have been 4ish. I feel we are now getting some significant line value in what could be a very difficult trip for Georgia. In the last decade, the farthest trip Georgia has made for a road game is when they travel to South Carolina. It’s been a very long time since they’ve traveled out west and it will definitely play a role this week. Going back and watching the tape of the UNLV vs. ASU game I can tell you that UNLV, who is a much improved team, played lights out and had a lot of breaks. I can also tell you that ASU wasn’t very motivated as they were obviously looking ahead to this week’s game. I don’t think Dennis Erickson will allow his team to come out two weeks in a row unmotivated, as he has been under the national spotlight being scrutinized on a daily basis. I listened to his press conference this week, and while I admit he’s not my favorite coach of all-time, the guy has a track record of having his team ready for big games and I think that will be the case this week. QB Rudy Carpenter is as good as any quarterback in the country, when he has time to throw. His receiving corp. has continued to get better every week. Mike Jones, also the centerfielder on the baseball team, has emerged as the big play guy. Chris McGaha is their position guy, and Kerry Taylor and Kyle Williams are also threats. I’ve yet to see a team this year with four wide receivers that all average over eighteen yards per catch. This amount of playmakers will put a strain on the Georgia secondary, one that South Carolina was able to throw on regularly last week without their top WR. The ASU running game will miss RB Keegan Herring, who appears to still be out still with a hamstring injury. However, Dimitri Nance (4.0 ypc, 3 TD’s) has started the past year and is a tough runner. The big key will be ASU’s offensive line giving Carpenter enough time to throw vs. Georgia’s strong defensive line. Everyone is knocking ASU’s line, but it’s an improved unit from last year and Carpenter is more mobile in the pocket than people give him credit for. ASU’s defensive unit is headlined by their defensive line which has continued to improve each week as they have gotten healthier. They should be able to pressure QB Matthew Stafford regularly, who was sacked numerous times last week due to an inexperienced Georgia offensive line. Containing RB Knowshon Moreno will be a difficult task, but expect ASU to be up for the challenge. I see the special teams units being a wash, as is the coach match-up. This isn’t Erickson’s first rodeo and he will battle Richt toe-to-toe in a game that could go down to the wire.

Wake Forest +4.5

I’m totally fine that the public doesn’t truly respect teams like Wake Forest and also alright that people continue to be in love with teams like FSU. This type of heard mentality has allowed me to make a lot of money over the years. Wake Forest is not the same Wake Forest that your dad used to know. No longer do they have lesser-skilled athletes and have to hide behind misdirection and trickeration. Jim Grobe has established his program as one of the top teams in the ACC and he is now getting top recruits who can run with the rest of the conference. The combination of the athleticism of his players and the discipline he instills in them makes Wake a threat to win a ballgame every week out. Rarely do I ever mention a kicker first in my write-up, but it’s apparent to me that K Sam Swank is the top kicker in the entire country. He will play a huge role in a game where there may not be a whole lot of touchdowns scored. He’s extremely accurate and has great range. Anytime Wake reaches the FSU 35, they will be in scoring range. QB Riley Skinner has also quietly emerged as the most consistent quarterback in the conference. He is completing over 74% of his passes and has a five to zero touchdown to interception ratio. RB Josh Adams was a pre-season All-ACC selection and has done well so far this year, but Brandon Pendergrass has also emerged as a reliable running threat. WR D.J. Boldin (18 receptions) has quickly become Skinner’s favorite target and has picked up the slack for graduated WR Kenny Moore. TE Ben Wooster (12 receptions) has also been a very reliable pass catcher and helps balance out the offense. Grobe has been able to red shirt a lot of his younger players, who in year’s past would have had to play right away. This has allowed them to get a year under their belt learning the Wake Forest system, and also get stronger in the weight room. Wake has been able to step up in class and compete with programs like Florida St., who appear to be headed in the opposite direction. Florida State has beaten two opponents rather handily, but take a look at the competition. They start a young quarterback and their offensive line is always a question mark. They will also be playing this game without six defensive starters who are still suspended from last year’s pre-bowl fiasco. Wake will not be intimidated in this game and matches up very well with Florida State. As the game goes on the points expect the points to become very valuable. Give me Grobe and his boys off a bye week vs. a Florida State team that still has to prove something to me.

[madworld]

Pags, been following you for a little while now, and have to say you are one of the best handicappers I have seen. This week I was a little upset when I noticed your Air Force pick. I am a huge Utah fan and I usually don't bet on them because I think too much emotion gets involved in the decision process, but I figured this would be a perfect week. I decided to wait for your write-up and make my decision. I think that I am going to trust your mad skills and just watch the game and cheer for a 1 touchdown win, that way we are all winners. Thanks for the write-ups and great insight. I love it when I look at the numbers for the week on Sunday and see plays I like, log into SBR and see you like some of the same plays. Those are always definite bets. Anyways, hope to see you around for awhile.

[shrax4]

Pags, you weren't Sun Tzu in a former life were you?

Great write ups. 6-1 this week.

[pags11]

madworld,

I appreciate you posting and also thiank you for your kind words...you as a Utah fan know how heated this series is...thanks again and feel free to chime in anytime...

shrax,

I was always wondering why I like Chinese food so much!...thanks man...thanks for your support...

[bosterosoy]

As always, great write-ups pags. Do you see value in San Jose and Arkansas -9?

Thank you

[odusmykal]

Pag's, i see another winning weekend!! I agree 100% with Wake, Miss St, and Tenn.. Great write ups on all your games.. Some teams i don't follow closely, but your write ups tell me all i need to know.. Time to win some more money!!

[wsw]

Pags, I'm new to this forum and I have just started checking out your plays this season and I'm very impressed so far. I agree with almost all of your picks as I mostly play dogs as well with a rare favorite here and there. You seem to be one of the most knowledgeable cappers I've seen on any forum.

One question for you. Does the line movement in the Air Force game worry you at all? It's up to 9 at most books and 9.5 at some.

Thanks in advance and good luck this week.

[taurus]

well, Ive now completed my required Friday morning reading.
Great insight as usual, pags.
One clarification.
Yes, I was surprised by your AF and ASU plays.
But I'm with you on your entire card.
In fact, I see abig big week for the puppies.
GL

[thegeeksheet]

pags

Sat.

All plays for 2.5 units...

Tennessee +8
Air Force +7.5
Mississippi St. +7
Arkansas +10
San Jose St. +10
Arizona State +7
Wake Forest +4.5

one more play to follow...

Pags-
I really love the SJSU play, i almost pulled the trigger but i have a couple no-go indicators i use that showed some worse case scenarios with Stanford in the 400 yd / 26-30 pt range. other thing that scares me here is SJSU has been almost as bad as Stanfords off, but Stanf actually has had a pretty good def (5.5 yppl)...all that said i had a SJSU win 28-20, so i think you got a good one here.

Also love the AF play, especially since its up around 9 now! AF went 0-7 passing last week, so who cares if Utah has a great pass D, still they have to figure out how to be somewhat effective passing the ball or it is going to catch up with them.

Miss St & Ark scare me some until they prove they can score on offense, although i think there is less risk with Pigtrino's crew (i had 3 of my 5 models with outright Ark wins, one of which is a multi-situational simulator which showed an Ark SU win 45% of the time).

Good luck, i don't have a good sense of Wake, UT, or Ariz St, but could make a case for any of them also.

[icemantbi]

Thanks for the writeups again Pags. Love to see you keep riding the dogs. Here's to another great weekend

[WestsidePete]

GL this weekend PAGS,

Let the doggies bite...took 3 myself
Wake +5
Ark +10
Tenn +8

and two favs
UNC -2.5
Tulsa -9.5

[pags11]

boster,

not a problem...I stated above that I'd play SJSU at +7.5 or more...the Arkansas game I'd definitely prefer to have 10...GL to you this week...

odu,

thanks bud...glad that we will be on those games together...BOL this weekend...

wsw,

thanks for posting and for your kind words...I have followed the line in the Utah vs. Air Force game and it's fluctuated from 7.5 to 9.5 all week...I can understand why people are betting Utah, but it doesn't affect my thoughts on the game...

taurus,

thank you sir...

geek,

thank you...appreciate your insight on the games...GL this week...

iceman,

appreciate it very much...thanks as always for bringing around your avatar...BOL to you as well this week...

pete,

thanks man...GL to you this week as well...looks like a pretty good card...

[manofmyth]

Aloha Pags!!

Long time reader, first time posting on your thread. Great write-up. It's clear and pretty straight forward on your picks. Only one is iffy for me, the Miss St game. Other than that, i like the Tenn play and the SJSU, follow WAC out here in Hawaii and this year SJSU looks good, along with Fresno St. Surprised you didn't take Vandy this week, or NC St with ECU LB out and 3 freshman expected to rotate in this week at Raleigh.

Look forward to more insight on the weeks to come. Mahalo.

[crackerjack]

Saying Troy Calhoun has made AF a perennial bowl team is somewhat of an overstatement since this is only his second year, but he has done one helluva job. If I were ranking your picks, this is probably my favorite. I think AF could win this one outright, as long as its defense shows up.

[Djscotts]

This is what i got! GL All!!

Alabama
Arkansas 09/20/08(12:30 ET)
Arkansas +9 (-105) Florida
TennesseeU 09/20/08(15:35 ET)
TennesseeU +7.5 (-105) Georgia
ArizonaSt 09/20/08(20:05 ET)
ArizonaSt +7 (-105) MississippiSt
GaTech 09/20/08(12:00 ET)
MississippiSt +7.5 (-105) SanJoseSt
Stanford 09/20/08(21:00 ET)
SanJoseSt +8 (-105) Utah
AirForce 09/20/08(16:05 ET)
AirForce +9.5 (-105) WakeForest
FloridaSt 09/20/08(19:30 ET)
WakeForest +5 (-105)

[laxdjock]

Saying Troy Calhoun has made AF a perennial bowl team is somewhat of an overstatement since this is only his second year, but he has done one helluva job. If I were ranking your picks, this is probably my favorite. I think AF could win this one outright, as long as its defense shows up.

I'm hoping so! I'm putting 2 units on AF +9.5.