Front Page NCAAF Picks (Sat., Aug 30)

**Willie Bee** · 08-26-08, 12:31 PM

Oklahoma State -6½ to crack whip at Washington State

Game Time: 08/30/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

It's a Big 12, PAC-10 showdown in Seattle when Oklahoma State travels to meet Washington State. Look for the Cowboys to have too much firepower for the Cougars.

There are some key mismatches in this non-conference tilt featuring Oklahoma State and their hosts Washington State . One of the most glaring comes via the Cowboys' offensive line and the Cougars' defensive line.

With four key starters back for Oklahoma State, I expect this big experienced group will step over and dismantle their opposition play after play, making for big gaping holes up the middle that running backs Kendall Hunter and JUCO transfer Beau Johnson will exploit . I also expect lots of time for QB Zac Robinson to sit in the pocket and pick apart an extremely vulnerable Wazzu secondary. There is not doubt in mind that the Cowboys are going to score points in bunches.

Meanwhile Washington State, under new head coach Paul Wulff, comes into his first game ready to fire back behind a shotgun offense that is gearing up to play wide open football this season, in part because of their obvious defensive deficiencies. Oklahoma State's pedestrian defense has proven itself to be equally inept, but with this tilt being so early in the season, the Cougars, who are still learning a multitude of new schemes, will be unable to consistently take advantage of the situation, which I believe will have them on the wrong side of the score when the final whistle blows.

Final Notes & Key Trends: This is not a true home game for Washington State, as this contest will be played in Seattle. WSU has lost 25 of their last 37 SU against Big 12 opposition. The Cowboys, when they have scored 28 points or more in a road game, are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six, winning those games by an average of just under 20 PPG.

Projected score: Cowboys-38 Cougars-30

Free Pick: Oklahoma State -6½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 08-28-08, 10:36 AM

Cornhuskers -14½ break Broncos

Game Time: 08/30/2008 07:00 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

Husker Nation is prepping for a blowout win to kick off the Bo Pellini Era. Lay the points on Nebraska at home in Lincoln Saturday night against the Western Michigan Broncos.

The Bo Pelini era kicks off in Memorial Stadium in Lincoln on Saturday to the delight of Husker Nation, who filled the same stadium for this past spring's game with close to 75,000 people.

Expectations are high in Huskerland, but also managed somewhat by a level headed new head coach with Husker ties. Actually, Pelini is 1-0 as Husker head coach, as he led the Huskers to victory in 2003 in the Alamo Bowl after the firing of Frank Solich, thus an era of disappointment and downslide under Bill Callahan began. The order in Lincoln Nebraska is about to be restored under AD Tom Osborne and his new hire.

Nebraska will be sky high and return intact a great deal of the ninth-ranked offense in the country last year with Joe Ganz at the helm, a very capable QB who threw for 16 TD and 1400 yards in four starts. Running back Marlon Lucky is a Top 3 back in the Big 12, and the offensive line returns all five. The problem is defense, and they were deplorable in 2007. With Pelini running the show, and proving his prowess at calling defenses as head man at LSU when his defenses dominated the SEC and won titles, expect a renewed vigor for the once proud Blackshirts at Nebraska. Expect a monster effort this Saturday in all phases as winning needs to be established early and in convincing fashion.

Western Michigan is no patsy, but is in a real tough spot here. Tim Hiller at QB threw for 267 yards per game in 2007 and returns, as well as top RB Brandon West who pounded out 848 yards last year, as the Broncos ended up 5-7 overall, but just 2-8-1 ATS in lined games last year, which is a concern. The defense of WMU allowed over 400 yards per game last year and that is the key to this game. Nebraska's offense is a Top 5 offense in the Big 12 this year, mark my words. They will move the chains all day long. The defense will be improved vastly and the home opener will be one big coming out party, as Pelini will drop the hammer and make the natives very happy in Husker Nation this Saturday.

PREDICTION: Nebraska-41 Western Michigan-17

Free Pick: Nebraska -14½ (+100)

**SoonerBS** · 08-28-08, 10:39 AM

I absolutely love the Oklahoma State play . . . .

**accuscoresucks** · 08-28-08, 10:59 AM

willie im starting to think your up to no good

**Red Man Spit** · 08-28-08, 04:07 PM

I like the Wyoming play.

**manny24** · 08-28-08, 04:12 PM

front page couldn't handicap a wheelchair last year.

**Willie Bee** · 08-29-08, 10:26 AM

USC Trojans, Virginia Cavs Under 43

Game Time: 08/30/2008 03:30 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Virginia has a suspect offense last year, and they are now breaking in a new quarterback vs. a USC defense that is one of the best in the nation. Defense is also the Cavs’ strong suit, so go Under.

The USC Trojans are the favorites to win the national championship, thanks in part to a great defense, while the Virginia Cavaliers should also have a good defense even with Chris Long departed.

USC is talented at every position, but for the time being, the defense looks to be ahead of the offense. This is only because they are so deep at running back that no one has emerged as the clear-cut starter yet, so the timing may be a tad out of synch until a go-to guy emerges. The defense was fantastic last year, but even though the unit lost three key starters to the NFL, big things are expected from a prized defensive recruiting class.

Now Virginia was not exactly an offensive juggernaut in 2007, and they are now turning the offense over to quarterback in Peter Lalich, who saw some action as a true freshman. The USC is a daunting task for his sophomore debut though. The Cavaliers will have to rely on their defense to win games this year, and although Long is obviously a devastating loss up front, the Cavs do have veteran linebackers and defensive backs to pick up the slack.

The key to this contest is that only one team will be doing most of the scoring, which usually makes it difficult for a game to go Over.

Free Pick: USC, Virginia Under 43 (-110)

**old threads** · 08-29-08, 11:51 AM

Nebraska and Ok St picks to cover are good ones for me too. GL every one.

**sweetpete57@** · 08-29-08, 02:07 PM

Western Michigan is better than people think and Nebraska has a lot to prove to me before I lay these kind of points

**Willie Bee** · 08-30-08, 09:17 AM

Bowling Green Falcons +13½ cover at Pittsburgh Panthers

Game Time: 08/30/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Pittsburgh is a popular pick to be a solid team in the Big East this year, but the Panthers will struggle to cover the spread Saturday against the Bowling Green Falcons.

The word out of Pittsburgh is that this year’s team is so talented not even head coach Dave Wannstedt can screw things up. Or can he?

Wanny’s Panthers may not have a walk in the park here against the BeeGees, a squad that’s loaded with 17 returning starters and owns a 5-1-1 ATS log in its initial road game of the season. Hey, we like 7-plus win teams taking double digits from losers, a setup that’s cashed nine on the last 13 tickets in lidlifters. And even though Pittsburgh has shown some pointspread success squaring off with the MAC (5-1 at home) and in Game 1 situations (4-1 their last five), they’ll also be buckling beneath the unfamiliar weight of high expectations from a host of preseason pundits.

Pitt could very well be this year’s surprise team in the Big East but we’ll have to witness a few convincing sermons before we go changing religions. Today doesn’t look like the day. Grab the points.

Free Pick: Bowling Green +13½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 08-30-08, 09:20 AM

Play Utah St. Aggies +12½ to cover at UNLV Rebels

Game Time: 08/30/2008 10:00 PM -
By: Larry Ness | experts.covers.com

UNLV is better than they have been, but they had no way to go but up. And the Rebels have no business laying this many points on Saturday to the Utah St. Aggies.

These teams opened against each other last year as well, with the UNLV Rebels coming away with a 23-16 win. UNLV scored with 1:02 remaining in that game, which ended the school's 15-game road losing streak (FYI, the Rebels went on to lose their other five road games last year).

UNLV's only other win in '07 came at home against Utah (27-0 shocker), as the team ended the year on an eight-game losing streak (2-10 overall). That leaves head coach Mike Sanford just 6-29 in his three years at the school and squarely on "the hot seat." Sanford insists there has been improvement with the program since his arrival but it's a "hard sell" when the team has managed just two wins in each of his three years in Las Vegas.

Even more troubling has been the fact that his teams have unraveled in similar fashion. Losing the final eight games last new was nothing new, as the '06 team went 1-10 after winning its season-opener and the '05 team lost eight of its last nine, including its final five.

Now Utah State is not exactly a powerhouse, as the Aggies are just 3-21 the last two years. However, they do open the '08 season on a two-game winning streak, after winning their final two games of the '07 season, 35-17 and 24-19. The back-to-back wins ended a 16-game losing streak and surprisingly, both wins came on the road (at New Mexico St and at Idaho).

I should mention at this time that the Aggies have won their last five visits to Las Vegas and that the Rebels are a pathetic 6-17 ATS as home favorites, a record that stretches back into the 1990s. I'll also mention that UNLV is 0-4 ATS in their last four tries as a double-digit favorite, twice losing outright.

Utah State was reasonably competitive in all but two games in '07 (lost at Oklahoma 54-3 and at home to Boise State 52-0) and was particularly good away from home, covering every road game but the team's trip to Norman (6-1 ATS). Let's take the points.

Free Pick: Utah St. +12½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 08-30-08, 09:32 AM

Minnesota Golden Gophers -8 vs. Northern Illinois Huskies

Game Time: 08/30/2008 07:00 PM -
By: Ross Benjamin | phoenixsports.com

With his freshman season under his belt, look for Golden Gophers QB Adam Webber to be primed to lead Minnesota to a win and cover over the Northern Illinois Huskies.

I look for the Minnesota Golden Gophers to be much improved in 2008. The difference in this game will be the Gophers quarterback Adam Webber, a poor man’s version of Tim Tebow. Webber started all 12 games as a frosh in 2007. He threw for close to 2900 yards, threw for 24 touchdowns, and rushed for over 700 yards.

The experience factor for the Northern Illinois Huskies has been damaged a bit as their projected starting QB Dan Nicholson is not 100% healthy, creating a bit of instability at the position. Minnesota needs to win these types of games at home to get the program back on track after an embarrassing 2007 season. They will come up big in this one with a huge effort.

Free Pick: Minnesota -8 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 08-30-08, 09:34 AM

Utah & Michigan Under 40½

Game Time: 08/30/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Bryan Leonard | experts.covers.com

Michigan's offense is having to learn a new system under first year head coach Rich Rodriguez while Utah has a very strong defense. Play the Utes and Wolverines on the Under.

The Utes are loaded this year with fifth year senior QB Brian Johnson returning fully healthy. A win here and a victory over rival BYU could set up a possible BCS Bowl for Utah with an undefeated season. While the offense gets most of the credit, defensively the Utes are well stocked. They could be the most balanced team in the Mountain West Conference.

There has been a great deal of change in Ann Arbor as the Wolverines welcome in former West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez. He was one of the innovators of the popular spread option offense which worked so well for the Mountaineers. The problem is that none of these players were recruited to run this offense. The team brings back just three starters on offense which is probably a good thing considering the change in scheme. But they did lose not only graduation losses but also multiple offensive line deflections as well as a quarterback transfer.

It's easy to say that this scoring unit will be a work in progress all season for the Wolverines. While the offense tries to get the system learned the defense will have to carry the load. Michigan brings back a very talented stop unit who should fare much better than in the past vs the spread attack. Keep in mind that these players will face the spread everyday in practice, and the team has recruited more defensive speed the past two seasons.

With Michigan changing offensive schemes we can really see them struggling to score on Saturday. Look for Rodriguez to be very conservative offensively as he lets the defense keep them in the game. Utah will have a tougher time moving the ball on a much improved Wolverine defense which is much more accustomed to the spread than in last years opener against Appalachian State.

The host doesn't have the offensive firepower to compete here so we expect Michigan to take as much time as possible in keeping the ball on the ground. Less plays equal less scoring as this game stays under the posted total.

Free Pick: Utah-Michigan Under 40½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 08-30-08, 09:56 AM

Oregon Ducks -13½ vs. Washington

Game Time: 08/30/2008 10:00 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | phoenixsports.com

In their last five season openers against fellow PAC-10 schools, Oregon is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS. Back the Ducks Saturday night at home against the Washington Huskies.

If you’re going to fade Oregon in Eugene, you better have a darn good reason. In their last 86 games at Autzen Stadium, the Ducks have quacked their way to an impressive 68-18 SU and 47-34 ATS record, including a blistering 14-6 SU and ATS in this role in conference play.

Oregona skipper Mike Bellotti won’t have quarterback Dennis Dixon on the sidelines. That will certainly hurt a little. However, the Ducks won’t be lacking in talent. Oregon has five experienced seniors on the offensive line and senior running back Jeremiah Johnson in the backfield. Defensively, the Ducks return seven starters from a unit that surrendered an average of 23.6 points per game. Injuries took their toll on UO’s “D” last year especially at linebacker. That unit is healthy now and the “D” will show significant improvement.

With a 10-26 SU (15-19-1 ATS) record in its last 36 on foreign soil, a visit from the University of Washington won’t scare anyone. To make matters worse, the Huskies have struggled as big dogs in this role notching a dismal 7-11-1 ATS mark when priced at +9 or more.

History won’t favor UW here either. In their last four meetings against Oregon, the Huskies are a stiff 0-4 SU and ATS with all four losses coming by at least 20 points.

Dating back to the 1985 season, the Ducks have played five season openers against Pac-10 competition and cashed them all posting a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS record. Chalk up another win and cover here men. Take Oregon!

Free Pick: Oregon -13½ (-110)