How much stock do you guys put in the conference match up for these early bowl games? I know it's "any given Saturday..." but when teams seem somewhat evenly matched, it's hard for me not to compare their schedules. Betting against the MAC or Sunbelt seems like a decent philosophy to me. Not saying it is law, just another factor to consider. Thoughts?
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I think the location of the early games can be just as important as Conferences. You have an Ohio team who lost a heart breaking Conference Championship game going to Idaho to play Utah State. That is a big advantage for Utah State. You have a San Diego State team from the MWC, a much better Conference than the Sun Belt, going to New Orleans to play La. Lafayette. Lafayette is not that far from New Orleans. Will the San Deigo players concentrate on the game, or party time in the Big Easy? FIYU get what amounts to a home game in St. Petes against Marshall. Temple get to gtrudge across the country to go to New MExico to play Wyoming, who has played in that stadium before. I think that things like this have to be considered ahead of conferences. It is not like we have a SEC team playing a Sun Belt team here.Comment -
A LOT.
Examples, Mountain West does well in early games, WAC, too, Conf USA does poorly, MAC does poorly, though it depends on matchups, who is happy to be there, who is disapointed.
And in the MIDDLE bowls, watch out for SEC teams that do NOT want to "be there", they can be big favorites and overvalued by the books and lay an egg against a lower tier team. Last yr, GA lost to UCF straight up as 7 pt favorite. But like those SEC dogs later in the bowl season!
AND Bigdaddy is right... whoever is closest geographically has an advantage if it is VERY close, so location is big. So though I like SD ST conference, UL Lafayette is going to be jacked up in the Super Dome with a TON of fans... not just close followers, but fans that live in the area will come to root for UL Lafayette..
And weather / location is a big issue sometimes, like last yr Fresno comes from sunny California and gets beat in the cold of Boise by Northern Illinois.
A few yrs ago it was 18 degrees in Memphis, U Conn came in and beat a heavilyfavored Arkansas team. TOO COLD for the Hogs.Comment -
Yeah... as stated more than a few times... I am playing the Grizzlies tonight @ +5.5
You're right... my Jaguar play went down the crapper. However, my halftime bet @ +4.5 (that was posted) basically juiced me out.
Are you on the Bearkats tonight?Comment -
Sam Houston State is about an hour-and-a-half from me... gets a lot of Houston press. Last week, the line had a lot of value. In my opinion, their television performance against Montana State is why the line is as high as it is. I think the value is with Montana tonight.
Then again, the Bearkats could blow the Grizzlies out of Bowers stadium. If they do, I'll have another bet go down the crapper.Comment -
mac and big 12 awful ats every year.
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I will pass unless something comes up... have not followed these at all.
Thanks, though, you might be right, overvalued home favorite after blowout.
Line down the 4.5... so l guess the line went up over the scare about the Grizzlies 3 players. Still nothing official, are they out? IOf so, who are they, key players?
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