I've been breaking down the LSU-Bama GOTC, and I have found the obvious play for anyone caring to look below the surface of this matchup.
Bama has the phenomenal defensive stats, but they haven't faced an offense remotely resembling what LSU brings to the table with the dual QB threat (bomb and bullet), power rushing attack, Mad Hatter trick plays, Jarrett Lee bomb down the sideline on a 3rd and 1 play, LSU special teams magic, etc. They are going to have their hands full unlike anything they have seen this year, including the game against Arkansas where they gave up a season-high 14 points.
On the flip side, LSU has faced a couple of offenses operating at a similar high level to what Bama brings: Oregon and West Virginia. In those two games LSU gave up 21 and 27 points. Those game environments do not remotely simulate what they will face in Tuscaloosa, and Trent Richardson is the X-factor. Saban will have some gadget magic cooked up, probably early in the game, that will cause a cheap TD for Bama. LSU will give up the second-most points this year.
LSU 27
Alabama 26
LSU/BAMA over 41.5
$228 to win $207
Bama has the phenomenal defensive stats, but they haven't faced an offense remotely resembling what LSU brings to the table with the dual QB threat (bomb and bullet), power rushing attack, Mad Hatter trick plays, Jarrett Lee bomb down the sideline on a 3rd and 1 play, LSU special teams magic, etc. They are going to have their hands full unlike anything they have seen this year, including the game against Arkansas where they gave up a season-high 14 points.
On the flip side, LSU has faced a couple of offenses operating at a similar high level to what Bama brings: Oregon and West Virginia. In those two games LSU gave up 21 and 27 points. Those game environments do not remotely simulate what they will face in Tuscaloosa, and Trent Richardson is the X-factor. Saban will have some gadget magic cooked up, probably early in the game, that will cause a cheap TD for Bama. LSU will give up the second-most points this year.
LSU 27
Alabama 26
LSU/BAMA over 41.5
$228 to win $207
Why only $200?
