2 for 2nite USC & a Kent State Parlay

[GameSaver33]

After a lovely start to my illustrious career as a sports gambler
You may want to fade these as the career has only been for 2 days and has not been very illustrious starting off with a 2-5 record but still salvaging +2 Units. Lets hope this improves over time as I learn the ropes.

USC -20 SU 2 Units
Kent State -1 1/2 and the Under @44 for a 1 Unit Parlay

I have looked at this USC game trying to talk myself out of it but when the line dropped to -20 (-110) I felt that the price was right so I stepped up to the plate lightly for 2 Units. Just hard for me to see Colo staying with in 3 TD's against the boys from USC.
The Kent State game is an absolute tail on the heels of LTA and is not something that I would have picked just looking at the numbers, but after reading his take on this a couple times and reanalyzing the game abit I can see this working out. Hope your right about this LTA but as a tail I will only go 1 Unit and enjoy the game regardless of outcome.
Any comments are welcome and appreciated,
BOL 2 Ya and thx for the insight LTA still a fan win or lose.

[ebelisle22]

advise you to get rid of kent -1

[Pickem2win]

advise you to get rid of kent -1

Thats what Im thinking too!

Kent state has averaged 9.5 points over the past 4 games and has only averaged 12.8 for the year (they rank 119th in the nation in scoring!!). Furthermore their defense allows 26.4 points. How this spread is -1 Kent State is beyond me!

CMU is averaging 25.5 points over the past 4 games and is averaging 22.8 on the season (they rank 93rd in scoring). Defense is weak and allows 32 points per game. But look at who they have played! Michigan State (45-7 loss), North Carolina State (4-4 in the ACC) which was a 38-24 loss).

Based on those averages I dont see how CMU doesnt win this game by at least a point!

CMU +1 or the under would be my only bet on that game--betting on Kent State and their 9.5 points is asking for trouble!

[GameSaver33]

Thats what Im thinking too!

Kent state has averaged 9.5 points over the past 4 games and has only averaged 12.8 for the year (they rank 119th in the nation in scoring!!). Furthermore their defense allows 26.4 points. How this spread is -1 Kent State is beyond me!

CMU is averaging 25.5 points over the past 4 games and is averaging 22.8 on the season (they rank 93rd in scoring). Defense is weak and allows 32 points per game. But look at who they have played! Michigan State (45-7 loss), North Carolina State (4-4 in the ACC) which was a 38-24 loss).

Based on those averages I dont see how CMU doesnt win this game by at least a point!

CMU +1 or the under would be my only bet on that game--betting on Kent State and their 9.5 points is asking for trouble!

I looked at all those figures also and was then I read LTA's take which I have included and liked his reasoning enough to play it for a Unit. After my dismal record I thought I would follow a man with a good record and reasoning to see if what he was seeing is more accurate than my take on the game and with the payoff of the parlay I thought WTH even though I am still .


Play #4

Central Michigan/Kent State under (43) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to make sure I get at least 43 on this play, so I'm locking it up now. We should have hit the under on Saturday between Kent State and Bowling Green, but KS's defense is so good that they were able to force a fumble with 20 seconds left in the game and took it the house to burn the under. While I think Kent State's defense dominates again, I don't think we see this one approach the posted total. I have this game set 39 and would not be surprised to see a Kent State outright win in a game that stays under the posted total. I also may play Kent State at -1, so stay tuned for another possible play in this game. Kent State is generally ranked top 30 nationally in all defensive advanced efficiency numbers, while CM is in the 90's. Both teams have poor advanced offensive numbers, although CM is a bit better in that category. However, Kent State has the edge is special teams and at kicker (although both teams have reliable field goal kickers). The time of possession numbers show both teams will employ a grind it out game plan in this one, although CM is much more likely to play an uptempo pass game than Kent State, especially if forced into that by game situations. Nevertheless, I just don't see CM scoring more than 17 on this fierce Kent State defense and Kent State has trouble scoring against anyone, so I would not be surprised to see a 20-17 Kent State win. This game opened at 43.5 and was bet down immediately and now sits at 42.5 or 43, despite 65% of all bets on the over while Kent State went from a 1 point dog to a 1 point favorite. There is a correlation here between KS for the win and the under. I really like the under and therefore I also like Kent State for the win. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.


Play #11

Kent State (-1) 1x (Locked)

I love Kent State and the under as a strong correlation so I am playing that game accordingly. 1x each on KS, the under and teasing them both. Busy day at work, but I will try to post my plays as I lock them in. Good luck.


Maybe I should have mixed his and mine for a parlay like USC -20 and the Under on Kent vs CM
Oh well we will see its too late to jump out now.
Thanks for the response and BOL @ Ya

[ebelisle22]

I looked at all those figures also and was then I read LTA's take which I have included and liked his reasoning enough to play it for a Unit. After my dismal record I thought I would follow a man with a good record and reasoning to see if what he was seeing is more accurate than my take on the game and with the payoff of the parlay I thought WTH even though I am still .


Play #4

Central Michigan/Kent State under (43) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to make sure I get at least 43 on this play, so I'm locking it up now. We should have hit the under on Saturday between Kent State and Bowling Green, but KS's defense is so good that they were able to force a fumble with 20 seconds left in the game and took it the house to burn the under. While I think Kent State's defense dominates again, I don't think we see this one approach the posted total. I have this game set 39 and would not be surprised to see a Kent State outright win in a game that stays under the posted total. I also may play Kent State at -1, so stay tuned for another possible play in this game. Kent State is generally ranked top 30 nationally in all defensive advanced efficiency numbers, while CM is in the 90's. Both teams have poor advanced offensive numbers, although CM is a bit better in that category. However, Kent State has the edge is special teams and at kicker (although both teams have reliable field goal kickers). The time of possession numbers show both teams will employ a grind it out game plan in this one, although CM is much more likely to play an uptempo pass game than Kent State, especially if forced into that by game situations. Nevertheless, I just don't see CM scoring more than 17 on this fierce Kent State defense and Kent State has trouble scoring against anyone, so I would not be surprised to see a 20-17 Kent State win. This game opened at 43.5 and was bet down immediately and now sits at 42.5 or 43, despite 65% of all bets on the over while Kent State went from a 1 point dog to a 1 point favorite. There is a correlation here between KS for the win and the under. I really like the under and therefore I also like Kent State for the win. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.


Play #11

Kent State (-1) 1x (Locked)

I love Kent State and the under as a strong correlation so I am playing that game accordingly. 1x each on KS, the under and teasing them both. Busy day at work, but I will try to post my plays as I lock them in. Good luck.


Maybe I should have mixed his and mine for a parlay like USC -20 and the Under on Kent vs CM
Oh well we will see its too late to jump out now.
Thanks for the response and BOL @ Ya

man i wish you the best of luck. If you teased the game a bit i think you have a shot but kent -1 isn't looking great in my eyes. if anything id take cmich +1 or stay away. i was going to stay away but figured i'd keep the night interesting and put a SMALL bet on it tonight. Don;t get me wrong though, the teams are both pretty sloppy so it could go your way but the way i see it, cmich has a slight edge above 50%

[GameSaver33]

What is ur take on this as a parlay
Maybe I should have mixed his and mine for a parlay like USC -20 and the Under on Kent vs CM

[GameSaver33]

Well 2 Bets were not enough I guess. Went ahead and did the parlay.
USC -20 Kent vs CM Under for 2 units
This may right the ship on earlier parlay that is questionable.

[GameSaver33]

Well looks like the Parlays are shot to hell in a hand basket. What I thought was the safe side of each turned into my undoing Kent State finally brings Offense and leaves the D at home. Gotta love the MAC.