it went from arkansas -10 to -8.5 whats the deal?
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Arkansas vs Vandy: I would lean Vandy +10
I’m sure I will have a decent opinion about this game
This one will come down to a stout Vandy defense vs a talented Ark offense. A lot of the public was let down last week when they didn’t cover against Ole Miss, I am concerned this line may have that factored in. My initial lean was towards Vandy but the more I think bout it the more I lean Arkansas. Let’s have a deeper look.
Vandy is 5-2 ATS, with the 2 non-covers coming to Alabama and South Carolina, they are historically terrible but their defense has made them a competitive team this year, ESPN thinks this switch to Aaron Rodgers’s younger brother gives them offensive hope, but I think that is more a function of Army being terrible. Anyway they had decent performances in a victory over Uconn, a 30-7 trouncing of Ole Miss, and a close loss to a very strong Georgia team 33-28… (not bad). Their 2 worst losses have come @ Bama and @ South Carolina but I am not too worried about those 2 games because this game is @ Vandy. Their defense is their biggest strength and though they do give up 21 per game there aren’t a lot of “Inflation numbers” (I mean some teams give up an average of 10 points per game but you see they gave up 0 to Eastern State, William and Thomas Prep Academy, and Kent State, but they also gave up 35 to Western Kentucky, and Eastern Michigan … I mean realistically that’s 35x2=70/5=14pts per but who cares you get the point) They are a tough D and can contain strong offenses, but I can still see Arkansas making it to 30, the next question is: Do we think Vandy can get in the end-zone. Outside of the Bama and SC games they have topped 24 in every game, and on the other side of the ball Arkansas has allowed 28 to offensively intept TROY, 38 to a tough A&M team, 38 to Bama, 14* to Auburn, and 24 to terrible Ole Miss. I think Vandy gets their points and keeps the game within 10.
Arkansas on the other hand is obviously known for their potent offense but they have had problems over the last few games. They do average 321 yards per game pasing, but this Vandy defense is only giving up 191, so that could be an interesting matchup. ESPN brought light to an interesting fact:
“The Razorbacks have faced first-half deficits in each of their last three games, trailing by an average of 14.0 points, but have managed to come away unscathed as they've outscored their opponents 64-10 after halftime.”
If they get a slow start here, this may be a SU loss for them, the Vandy Defenses isn’t going to be easy to come from behind against, and though Arkansas does average 13points more per game, beating this scrappy Vandy team is going to be a difficult task. Im not going to go too much more in depth but if I was forced to play this game I would lean Vandy +10, I don’t like the 52 total, but there could be a play. I can see a final like 28-21 or something like that. Good Luck with whatever you guys decide to play.
Note* Vandy has only given up over 300 yards passing this year 1 time (Georgia)
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Summary, Vandy plays well at home, and Arkansas has shown some signs of inconsistency, 10points was too much... Big Money came in on VandyComment -
hawgs win by 17Comment