Miami vs. Virginia Preview Thread

paranoyd androyd · 10-24-11, 01:57 AM

like uva in the dog role being able to run the ball

luckyutah · 10-24-11, 01:00 PM

Short week for both teams. Miami with a few injuries, but UVA has to travel. Although they have a new coaching staff, Miami should be looking for revenge after losing to UVA last year. I wouldn't be surprised if Miami doesn't let up all game. Miami's Thursday night win percentage is ridiculous and at home on Thursday nights, their record is something like 10-1. Not sure of their Thursday ATS record though. I like Miami to cover especially if it's under 14.

spladle08 · 10-24-11, 01:27 PM

Thursday: UVA vs Miami: UNDER (hoping for mid 50’s)
Virginia (24.9/23.0) 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS, 1-5 O/U
Miami (29.4/21.3) 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Looks like Miami and the Under is the play at a glance, but I always dive deeper.
Everyone knows UVA beat GT, but has struggled with some pretty terrible teams. Miami has looked good at times and not as good at others. They lost to Maryland, beat OHST, lost to KSU, and then beat Gtech. Miami has definitely had the more difficult schedule.
Now that we have that established, let’s look at some stats. As far a team totals (yardage), UVA appears to be better on offense and defense but they have played a very soft schedule. To further elaborate on this: UVA’s toughest opponent was GTech. Besides that game they have losses to NCST (28-14), Southern Miss (30-24) and UNC (28-17) if you take out their opening week win over William and Mary, they have won over Indiana, Idaho, and GT by a combined 7pts. If we look at Miami, we see their losses have come to Maryland (32-24), KSU (28-24), and VaTech (38-35), while their wins have come against some notable competition (outside of Bethune Cookman) they have beat OHST (24-6), UNC (30-24) and GT (24-7). Sooo not only their wins, but their competitiveness against fairly tough competition has me leaning towards Miami.
Over the last 3 seasons, Miami is only 1-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. They are also 4-12 O/U, when playing on a Thursday (since 92’)
Virginia is 1-5 O/U in all games this year, with the lone over being a 34-31 win over Indiana in week 2.

2010- UVA-24-19 @ Home
2009- Miami 52-17 @ home

The spread isn’t huge and Miami is obviously the better team, but with recent history against me on that bet I would lean towards the Under and hopefully its mid 50’s

Thunders77 · 10-24-11, 01:55 PM

G.Tech is in their 8th straight week and have really run out of gas IMHO.
I think Virginia can keep things close as Miami is pretty beat up in the interior D-line.
Low scoring, close game with both teams running the ball frequently.

EPote14 · 10-27-11, 05:26 PM

uhhh maybe I'm wrong last time I checked to o/u was 48 n if ur hoping for mid 50's that would be an over not under lol

ExperienceWins · 10-27-11, 05:38 PM

Miami rolls in this game. Don't over think it. I have watched most of Miami's games and they simply are turning the corner here. A lot of people have been burned by Miami the last few years bc of their ability to play DOWN to comp with recent coaches like Randy. UVA is a decent team but their offense is too slow against Miami's defense. The teams are similar in stats and all that but what TRULY matters is matchups, UVA does not at all match up in this game and at some point tonight it will show big time.

nomar122977 · 10-27-11, 05:42 PM

love miami -14 both favs should kill tonight.