Machine Choice: Thursday Night Football

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Machine Choice
    SBR MVP
    • 12-12-08
    • 3997

    #1
    Machine Choice: Thursday Night Football
    MACHINE CHOICE FOOTBALL: 23-10
    Current Win Streak: 10-0

    I couldn't settle on a side with the points for either game, so I've cooked up a 2-team ML parlay that I feel very confident about.

    In the UCF game, I feel that UCF winning SU is a lock based upon their defense and UAB's abysmal offense. My models show UCF winning by 16, so I couldn't find value in the spread. IF UCF doesn't win SU then I deserve to lose my bet. The more interesting game is...

    Arizona/UCLA. If Breuhaut started for UCLA I'd predict a 3-point Arizona win at home. But he's not starting due to injury, and Prince is. So that points in UA's favor, and sure enough the line sits at -4. Bottom line, just like the UCF game, the line appears to me to be very sharp. I am going to take Arizona on the ML in what I think will be a close game. UCLA with their god-awful defense is not going to blow out Arizona. Criner has now been listed as good to go, and Foles is going to eat UCLA's lunch through the air. Arizona's loss to Oregon State was flukey due to four turnovers, including two uncharacteristic INT's by Foles. Now that Stoops has been fired, I think UA is going to be loose, relaxed with a nothing-to-lose, go for broke mentality. In their home stadium I look for them to get their second win of the season, especially facing the injury-prone, fumble-prone, INT-prone Prince at QB for UCLA. On paper UA's defense looks horrible, but consider that they have faced 3 of the top 5 offenses in the nation (Stanford, Oklahoma State, Oregon). UCLA does not compare.

    2-team ML Parlay: UCF/ARIZONA
    $1,142 to win $877 (-128)
  • Wrestler31
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-26-11
    • 136

    #2
    taking this 100%. good look!
    Comment
    • ram1502
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-26-08
      • 822

      #3
      I like UCF/UCLA parlay better.....1.9:1 but good luck machine. Stay on fire...
      Comment
      • Tanko
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-19-09
        • 5143

        #4
        Damn. You are lit... Gotta go with this one.
        Comment
        • SilverTongueFox
          SBR MVP
          • 11-23-10
          • 2338

          #5
          Machine - local doesn't have ML for heavy favs. What do you think about 6.5 tease:
          UCF -9.5
          Zona +2.5
          (-120)
          Comment
          • ddavidson1173
            Restricted User
            • 10-18-11
            • 14

            #6
            So is 1142 your next step on the heavens gate?
            Comment
            • Machine Choice
              SBR MVP
              • 12-12-08
              • 3997

              #7
              Originally posted by SilverTongueFox
              Machine - local doesn't have ML for heavy favs. What do you think about 6.5 tease:
              UCF -9.5
              Zona +2.5
              (-120)
              Looks good to me.
              Comment
              • rtiet1
                SBR Rookie
                • 09-22-11
                • 25

                #8
                hmmmm
                Comment
                • Machine Choice
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-12-08
                  • 3997

                  #9
                  Originally posted by SilverTongueFox
                  Machine - local doesn't have ML for heavy favs. What do you think about 6.5 tease:
                  UCF -9.5
                  Zona +2.5
                  (-120)
                  But just so you know, I have played teasers in the past but I don't like them. If you're asking what I would personally do if it was my money, I wouldn't play this teaser. I should have made that clear
                  Comment
                  • Machine Choice
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-12-08
                    • 3997

                    #10
                    I don't expect to get alot of support for this play, and I understand that. People are skeptical of parlays, and they should be! People are skeptical of backing a 1-win team, and they should be. I wouldn't blame anyone for saying "pass." But just remember: I have over $1K on this. I don't take chances with money that large. I fully expect to be counting cash tomorrow at midnight.
                    Comment
                    • Primetime2125
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 02-26-11
                      • 109

                      #11
                      Couldn't agree with you more. May hop on the train with you if there's room.

                      GL!!!
                      Comment
                      • Machine Choice
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-12-08
                        • 3997

                        #12
                        I stand corrected. Arizona has beaten Northern Arizona this year. I edited my write-up. I don't factor FCS wins into my handicapping, but maybe in this case I should have. Northern Arizona is 5-1 and ranked higher in the computer rankings than Syracuse, Air Force, and NC State. So this is even more ammunition for backing Arizona IMO.
                        Comment
                        • Elysee26
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 10-12-11
                          • 173

                          #13
                          Ucla

                          I'm a SEC guy but I've followed AZ and was sad to see Stoops fail, which he did. But regarding UCLA, nothing would thrill me more than to see NewHouseAL get schooled. If you check out their media guide they "promote" their 2009 win against Tennessee with the incredible tag "the Bruins registered a huge win vs. the University of TN on the road..." This is a TN team that finished 7-6 in Kiffin's only year at the helm. If that is all you have to crow about.......just shut up. Going with you Machine on this one with a grudge.
                          Comment
                          • ddavidson1173
                            Restricted User
                            • 10-18-11
                            • 14

                            #14
                            My $17.72 1/11th bankroll bet is with you bro. Knocking on wood and hopefully heavens door.
                            Comment
                            • TheBetBuysDanK
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-15-09
                              • 1998

                              #15
                              Placed this bet last night. Stoked to see you select it for this. I may even DD. My only concern is that there is no way of knowing which U of A team shows up. Still ucla is rubbish.

                              Bol to all on this play!

                              Machine, youre a hero.
                              Comment
                              • dcmoney52
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 10-08-11
                                • 56

                                #16
                                1st half UCF $ over for the game

                                ucf -9 1st half and over 45/5 parlay of the day!
                                Comment
                                • hubie69
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-16-10
                                  • 7329

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Machine Choice
                                  I don't expect to get alot of support for this play, and I understand that. People are skeptical of parlays, and they should be! People are skeptical of backing a 1-win team, and they should be. I wouldn't blame anyone for saying "pass." But just remember: I have over $1K on this. I don't take chances with money that large. I fully expect to be counting cash tomorrow at midnight.
                                  Get it Machine! Just wanted to say thanks for the pics, you've been on fire lately!
                                  Comment
                                  • AceKingHigh
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-23-09
                                    • 3888

                                    #18
                                    gooing with you machine good luck!
                                    Comment
                                    • mp5070
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-13-08
                                      • 5446

                                      #19
                                      Comment
                                      • cesar8000
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 09-14-11
                                        • 234

                                        #20
                                        i cant get the moneyline for ucf should i still take them at -16.5.....do you guys think it will go over
                                        Comment
                                        • jakeloftin2186
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 10-06-11
                                          • 595

                                          #21
                                          if you where to take the over/under in both games what would you
                                          Comment
                                          • cesar8000
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 09-14-11
                                            • 234

                                            #22
                                            arizona over for sure...uab game dont know
                                            Comment
                                            • Machine Choice
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-12-08
                                              • 3997

                                              #23
                                              Predicted Scores:

                                              UCF 28
                                              UAB 12

                                              Arizona 34
                                              UCLA 28
                                              Comment
                                              • Machine Choice
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-12-08
                                                • 3997

                                                #24
                                                I feel that these are also great bets, for anyone who wants to bet the World Series instead:

                                                Cardinals ML (this is what I would bet tonight if there was no football)
                                                Cardinals / Rangers under 8
                                                Comment
                                                • asdfghasdfgh
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 01-27-11
                                                  • 359

                                                  #25
                                                  Best of luck man. I'm probably playing a teaser of the UCF/UAB UNDER 53 and Arizona +3. I don't normally like teasing across zero, but I'm an action junkie and don't like any other side for tonight's games. Keep killing it bro.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • WinningIsKeY
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-17-11
                                                    • 1200

                                                    #26
                                                    GL i used it to hedge my teaser ( UAB -9 1/2 & UCLA + 11)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ddavidson1173
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 10-18-11
                                                      • 14

                                                      #27
                                                      The Zona line was -180 at my book last night and is -200 now. Does that mean we're on to something?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • WinningIsKeY
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-17-11
                                                        • 1200

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by ddavidson1173
                                                        The Zona line was -180 at my book last night and is -200 now. Does that mean we're on to something?
                                                        i think so i say a 35- 31 ARI
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dime Time
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 10-29-10
                                                          • 263

                                                          #29
                                                          I am taking UCLA tonight, they will win outright and I love the over for the parlay. GL
                                                          Comment
                                                          • michiganct
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 10-20-11
                                                            • 49

                                                            #30
                                                            UCF has done nothing to warrant them to win by 16, let alone on the road.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • riffraff24
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 04-20-11
                                                              • 7234

                                                              #31
                                                              Hey Machine - I locked in your College Football parlay pick on my investment account on 5dimes. I also wanted to make the same play with my entertainment account on Bodog, but as of right now they don't have the CFU Moneyline open. If they don't open one before game time; do you think an Arizona/Cards ML parlay is a good look? Thanks again and good luck today!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • killersweet
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-02-08
                                                                • 1483

                                                                #32
                                                                that was a sick loss by ucf, unreal
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Betn247
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 12-24-10
                                                                  • 622

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Machine Choice
                                                                  I don't expect to get alot of support for this play, and I understand that. People are skeptical of parlays, and they should be! People are skeptical of backing a 1-win team, and they should be. I wouldn't blame anyone for saying "pass." But just remember: I have over $1K on this. I don't take chances with money that large. I fully expect to be counting cash tomorrow at midnight.
                                                                  tough loss.....was on uab +17.5 seeing as how they covered the last few games......good thing is you got the rest of the weekend to get em back....keep your head up you
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  Search
                                                                  Collapse
                                                                  SBR Contests
                                                                  Collapse
                                                                  Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                  Collapse
                                                                  Working...