Machine Choice: FIU at Arkansas State

[Machine Choice]

Machine Choice Football: 22-10
Current Win Streak: 9-0

Arkansas State is going to throw all over FIU tomorrow using their up tempo offense. Aplin is averaging 274 yards per game, and that's despite the fact that he had to go on the road to face Va Tech and Illinois. He hung 290 yards on Illinois in their own house. He'll hang 300 yards+ on FIU. He's thrown some picks, but they've all been on the road. People see that FIU beat UCF and Louisville, and they respect that. I don't respect that. First of all, Louisville is worse than Arkansas State, secondly UCF's offense has gone in the tank this year and FIU caught them at home and UCF looking ahead to BYU. This game will be FIU's toughest road test by far, and they will not win it.

What we'll see: FIU will get the ground game going early but ASU will lock it down by the 2nd quarter. ASU: no mystery...through the air. X-factor #1: Aplin is a great scrambler and will break runs for first downs to keep drives alive. X-Factor #2: ASU head coach Hugh Freeze is a wizard genius who somehow coaxed 30 ppg in his first year as OC last year at ASU despite the fact that ASU only had five returning starters on offense. Now he's promoted to head coach for good reason, and the fans love him, but he will not be there long. He'll end up in a better conference. He was Ole Miss's interim head coach ater the Ed Orgeron firing.

Riding the Red Wolves here under the lights. Another big payday coming. They're 5-1 ATS, 2-0 ATS at home.

Red Wolves: 27
FIU: 21

ARKANSAS STATE -3
$761 to win $692

[CBASS]

I like it! Nice write-up Machine.

[Mr. Doughnut]

Well I was going to do a write-up about this tomorrow afternoon after classes, but this pretty much sums up what I thought about this.

FIU's two losses have come against the two best passing offenses they have faced (Duke and UL-Lafayette). Arkansas State's game through the air is far better than either of these team's. Liking Arkansas St here quite a bit. They have been a covering machine for me this year. Only game I haven't bet them was WKU, but FIU doesn't have a back nearly as talented as Bob Rainey.

Let's tear it up tomorrow night

[artist]

Will follow you I was hoping to see that lock so I have more confidence in the play. Let's hope this hit machine

[Wrestler31]

With you on this one! ARK will easily cover.

[las8]

you are leaving out a pretty large factor......... T.Y Hilton. will ark state be able to contain this play maker????

[Jago2008]

Btw its going to be cold and rainy there, doesn't exactly favor a high-flying offense, I have a small amount on the FIU ML @ +140. I think they will keep it close, and FIU run game is great, just saying. I have a lot less on the ML so for ur sake I hope you win. I just see too much value in the FIU given the conditions to NOT take this line. BOL

[ridims]

you are leaving out a pretty large factor......... T.Y Hilton. will ark state be able to contain this play maker????

Hilton was playing last game against Akron and yes he got some nice catches/yardage but they only won by a TD ..... Since some nice opening wins FIU has not really played very well.

You got to like Arkansas State here especially with the revenge factor from last year.

[Ice House]

home field is usually huge... ahhhh i don't know a damn thing about this game but for some reason I will probably bet on it

[SugarDaddy]

Btw its going to be cold and rainy there, doesn't exactly favor a high-flying offense, I have a small amount on the FIU ML @ +140. I think they will keep it close, and FIU run game is great, just saying. I have a lot less on the ML so for ur sake I hope you win. I just see too much value in the FIU given the conditions to NOT take this line. BOL

Not supposed to rain til after midnight. Temp should be in upper 50's low 60's. At least that is what accuweather is predicting. However, we all know weathermen are the only people allowed to be wrong and keep a job!

[kcburg]

-3 seems too easy..be careful.

[Seaton420]

-3 seems too easy..be careful.

Na i see alot of people of FIU

should be good im on ark st -3



$255 to win $225

[Time2Score]

I really liking FIU +10/Under 61 and ArkSt +4/Under 61 for a nice middle...thoughts?

[Time2Score]

This of course on top of a straight bet on ArkSt. -3

[saints1856]

I put Ark State in a teaser to get them +3.5 at home... They've won the last two on the road, and I think coming back home with 10 days to prepare for a natioanlly televised game will have them primed for a good game.

[tokio]

It's cold and still wet from yesterdays rain from what my guy in ark is telling me.

[Machine Choice]

Btw its going to be cold and rainy there, doesn't exactly favor a high-flying offense

Only 30% chance of rain at kickoff, decreasing to 0% by halftime.

[GREGREEK]

Only 30% chance of rain at kickoff, decreasing to 0% by halftime.

He does his homework boys!

[mp5070]

[vietstuh]

I really liking FIU +10/Under 61 and ArkSt +4/Under 61 for a nice middle...thoughts?

I like teasing the over more. they scored 55 points last year and I'm expecting atleast that if it doesn't rain.

[GREGREEK]

I found this on another site. Hope it helps.

Overall Team Offense

• The Arkansas State Red Wolves are ranked 28 on offense, averaging 444.2 yards per game. The Red Wolves are averaging 140.7 yards rushing and 303.5 yards passing so far this season.
• The Florida International Golden Panthers are ranked 52 on offense, averaging 406.3 yards per game. The Golden Panthers are averaging 157.7 yards rushing and 248.7 yards passing so far this season.

Home and Away

• The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 2-0 at home this season, 2-0 against conference opponents and 2-2 against non-conference opponents.
• At home the Red Wolves are averaging 50.0 scoring, and holding teams to 13.5 points scored on defense.
• The Florida International Golden Panthers are 2-0 while on the road this season, 1-1 against conference opponents and 3-1 against non-conference opponents.
• On the road, the Golden Panthers are averaging 25.5 scoring, and holding teams to 17.0 points scored on defense.

[Machine Choice]

Chance of rain is now down to 10% at kickoff. It would not have affected my play either way. My predicted game score is geneated by a spreadsheet, it is not a guess.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

the work you do is much appreciated, machine.

keep the $$$$ TRAIN rollin'.

[Jago2008]

Only 30% chance of rain at kickoff, decreasing to 0% by halftime.

I got this from ESPN and the weather channel. Not trying to undermine your argument because FOOSBALL is meant to be played in inclement weather, regardless- I'm not so sure where u guys are getting the reports from but it rained last night and today it was updated on ESPN and the weather channel:

ASU STADIUM
JONESBORO, AR
Updated: 10/18/11 5:45 AM E Lo: 41°F Hi: 53°F
Precip: 80%

Either way, this game is pretty much a toss-up right? I'M GOING ALL IN HERE!

Ticket Number:140861258Accepted Date:10/18/2011 - ESTGraded Date:1/1/0001Wager Type:Money LineWager Status:PendingRisk:$34.59 (USD) To Win Amount:$48.43 (USD) Description: Football - NCAA - FIU vs. Arkansas State - FIU ML +140.

I'm being sarcastic obv.

[riffraff24]

That was updated at 5:45 am. Maybe the forecasts showing the rain to slow down later on are more recent?

[grzftbl]

Only 30% chance of rain at kickoff, decreasing to 0% by halftime.

1st half under a play?

[riffraff24]

Chance of rain is now down to 10% at kickoff. It would not have affected my play either way. My predicted game score is geneated by a spreadsheet, it is not a guess.

I wish I would have paid more attention to your predicted score! Does your predicted score necessarily mean you would lean on the Under?

I took Ark -3 straight up and Ark -3/Over parlay with a small play

[Jago2008]

That was updated at 5:45 am. Maybe the forecasts showing the rain to slow down later on are more recent?

We'll just have to wait and see, regardless I don't think the weather is going to affect the defense or run game, it will be windy apparently, but it remains to be seen. BOL

[slowdown]

I really liking FIU +10/Under 61 and ArkSt +4/Under 61 for a nice middle...thoughts?

I think you would rather play ARK St. -3, then Play Teaser FIU +10 and Under 61.(If you have strong feeling of UNder 61)... to my opinion, this game will be OVER 47pts.

I have a feeling that ARK. St. will play "flying high" tonight and FIU can't catch up.

this game will be 31-24 ARK. ST ( reverse of the last match up)

BOL

[Ericg320]

I decided to have some fun:



3 Team - Teaser - Classic 3 Team Special

#301 - Florida International +13

#301 - Florida International/Arkansas State o42½

#328 - Clemson -½


3 Team - Teaser - Classic 3 Team Special

#301 - Florida International/Arkansas State o42½

#302 - Arkansas State +7

#328 - Clemson -½

[Tigers1230]

I am in Memphis which is an hour east of the stadium in Jonesboro, AR. It is going to be around 41 tonight and has been raining all day. Not pouring but a light drizzle. Curious to see how this can effect the passing game.

[Dime Time]

I agree that Ark. St. will cover tonight and I really like the over as I see a high scoring second half. Ark. St.34 - 27

[riffraff24]

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!!

[Jago2008]

[mrlegend28]

GL in your play but I feel bad for people blindly following you. You make no reference to Ty Hilton in your little write up, shows how misinformed you are.