Purdue +5.5 and Northwestern +4

[No coincidences]

I just want to pound the living shit out of these two games.

Anyone want to talk me out of it?

They look so tasty.

[brahmabull117]

nothing to like about that purdue line at all, they have been blasted in nearly all of their games over the last 2 years against halfway decent teams



lost by 28 at home to notre dame this year
lost 6 games last year by 10 + points (including by 34 @ Illinois)


not much of a homefield advantage there either, Purdue is winless at home in big 10 games last 2 seasons except for games against a terrible minnesota squad



ILL should win that game by 10+ points

[No coincidences]

Illinois coming off an emotional home game where they laid an egg in vintage Zook fashion. They're nothing special.

Purdue was solid at Penn State. They're not as bad as people think.

I don't think the gap is as wide here as you're assuming.

[brahmabull117]

Illinois coming off an emotional home game where they laid an egg in vintage Zook fashion. They're nothing special. Purdue was solid at Penn State. They're not as bad as people think. I don't think the gap is as wide here as you're assuming.

the close game at penn state shows nothing to me. Penn State would play a close game with our local YMCA football team filled with fat guys in their 40s


There's just nothing to really like about Purdue - Illinois is better at nearly every position with a huge advantage on the offensive side of the ball. In the only game against a decent offense this year, Purdue gave up 38 points and 550 yards to Notre Dame. I think Sheelhaase and that Illinois offense will have a big game here


With that being said, I'm probably not gonna play this game because of what you said with the terrible emotional loss last week against OSU. You just don't know how a team will react after that. On pure talent, Illinois is 14 points better on a neutral field than Purdue, but you just don't know how focused Illinois will be in this game



The Northwester play is solid tho

[Seaton420]

[quote=brahmabull117;11932667]the close game at penn state shows nothing to me. Penn State would play a close game with our local YMCA football team filled with fat guys in their 40s


There's just nothing to really like about Purdue - Illinois is better at nearly every position with a huge advantage on the offensive side of the ball. In the only game against a decent offense this year, Purdue gave up 38 points and 550 yards to Notre Dame. I think Sheelhaase and that Illinois offense will have a big game here


With that being said, I'm probably not gonna play this game because of what you said with the terrible emotional loss last week against OSU. You just don't know how a team will react after that. On pure talent, Illinois is 14 points better on a neutral field than Purdue, but you just don't know how focused Illinois will be in this game





Great writeup and very true. Why would you want to pound the shit out of purdue playing a ranked team and your getting less than a TD. Illinois by 10.

Hahhahaha they hung with Penn st

You know who else hung with penn st and loss by less than a TD? INDIANA!!!

[Ice House]

I am not very impressed with Penn State but why does everyone like Northwestern so much? I'm looking at the schedule/results and i'm not impressed.

[grizzlies1]

I hit NW+4 for a couple of units. I just simply cannot see Penn State blowing anyone out, especially away from Happy Valley. NW not a great team but solid enough and I do rate Persa highly as a passer.

[No coincidences]

Look at the Illinois/Purdue line now:

Pinnacle
Line History:
Illinois vs Purdue


POINTSPREADS
10/16 19:38 -6½ -102 / +6½ -108
10/16 22:20 -6½ +102 / +6½ -113
10/17 08:39 -6 -102 / +6 -108
10/17 09:59 -5½ -105 / +5½ -105
10/17 17:11 -5½ +102 / +5½ -113
10/17 17:48 -5½ +105 / +5½ -116
10/18 07:37 -4½ -105 / +4½ -105
10/18 11:56 -4½ -101 / +4½ -109
10/18 13:10 -3½ -105 / +3½ -105
10/18 13:11 -3½ -107 / +3½ -103
10/18 13:14 -3½ -111 / +3½ +101
10/18 14:14 -3½ -107 / +3½ -103

[suicidekings]

Look at the Illinois/Purdue line now:

Pinnacle
Line History:
Illinois vs Purdue


POINTSPREADS
10/16 19:38 -6½ -102 / +6½ -108
10/16 22:20 -6½ +102 / +6½ -113
10/17 08:39 -6 -102 / +6 -108
10/17 09:59 -5½ -105 / +5½ -105
10/17 17:11 -5½ +102 / +5½ -113
10/17 17:48 -5½ +105 / +5½ -116
10/18 07:37 -4½ -105 / +4½ -105
10/18 11:56 -4½ -101 / +4½ -109
10/18 13:10 -3½ -105 / +3½ -105
10/18 13:11 -3½ -107 / +3½ -103
10/18 13:14 -3½ -111 / +3½ +101
10/18 14:14 -3½ -107 / +3½ -103

This particular 3 point swing is not worth that much. Less than a TD to more than a FG. Purdue has a weak passing game, and Illinois has a stellar rushing defense (allowing only 2.7 ypc). How is Purdue going to score here?

[No coincidences]

This particular 3 point swing is not worth that much. Less than a TD to more than a FG. Purdue has a weak passing game, and Illinois has a stellar rushing defense (allowing only 2.7 ypc). How is Purdue going to score here?

I don't agree. Plenty of games end with 4-point spreads and 6-point spreads.

Purdue had 18 points vs. Penn State against the Nittany Lions' stout defense in Happy Valley. They ran the ball pretty well and were overall balanced. I don't think Illinois' run D is that much better than Penn State's -- at least not from what I've seen.

I'm just never overly-impressed with Zook's teams. I think he's a poor game-day manager. I'll take Purdue with the points at home.

Also like Notre Dame, Missouri, Iowa State and possibly Kansas, Syracuse and Ole Miss to cover this week.

[brahmabull117]

I don't agree. Plenty of games end with 4-point spreads and 6-point spreads. Purdue had 18 points vs. Penn State against the Nittany Lions' stout defense in Happy Valley. They ran the ball pretty well and were overall balanced. I don't think Illinois' run D is that much better than Penn State's -- at least not from what I've seen. I'm just never overly-impressed with Zook's teams. I think he's a poor game-day manager. I'll take Purdue with the points at home. Also like Notre Dame, Missouri, Iowa State and possibly Kansas, Syracuse and Ole Miss to cover this week.

I warned you about Uconn and Fresno last 2 weeks, I'll warn you about Syracuse this week


WVU has beaten Syracuse by a combined 62 points in the last 2 matchups @ SU and this version of the mountaneers is arguably the best in the last 5 years or so. Geno Smith and that offense has been phenomenal this year with Dustin Harrison giving WV a more balanced run game by running for nearly 300 yards last 2 games


WV - 38
SU - 17

[suicidekings]

Also like Notre Dame, Missouri, Iowa State and possibly Kansas, Syracuse and Ole Miss to cover this week.

Notre Dame and Southern Miss are my two favourite plays of the week. There are a few other interesting lines but I'm not sure how I feel about them. Leaning USF over Cincy, Washington +21 over Stanford, and Wisconsin -7.5 over MSU.

[PAULYPOKER]

I know Penn state very well actually I bet on them the only time they covered the spread this year against Iowa..(my only play involving PS this year)

They own North Western in the last couple seasons.

I say Penn state will probably cover the spread this week but not confident enough to make a play..

Penn states offense is putrid but their defense makes up for it against mediocre teams.

However NW plays great against PS in the 1st half in last two match ups> 21-7 on 11/6/2010 and 13-10 on 10/31/2009 but got shut out in both 2nd halves with the final scores being PS 35-21 and PS 34-13

[Hilljacademics]

I just want to pound the living shit out of these two games.

Anyone want to talk me out of it?

They look so tasty.

No opinion on Purdue, but definitely a play on NW....bol

[Seaton420]

I know Penn state very well actually I bet on them the only time they covered the spread this year against Iowa..(my only play involving PS this year)

They own North Western in the last couple seasons.

I say Penn state will probably cover the spread this week but not confident enough to make a play..

Penn states offense is putrid but their defense makes up for it against mediocre teams.

However NW plays great against PS in the 1st half in last two match ups> 21-7 on 11/6/2010 and 13-10 on 10/31/2009 but got shut out in both 2nd halves with the final scores being PS 35-21 and PS 34-13

Penn st cannot score into the 30's this season at all. Not the same offenses and NW looks alot better

[Kufta4]

Penn st cannot score into the 30's this season at all. Not the same offenses and NW looks alot better

I'd 100% stay away from the PSU game. If Penn State can run the ball they'll cover. If they cannot they may lose. The defense is good enough to keep them in any ball game but the offense is bad enough to lose any ball game. It's too much of a tossup.

If McGloin gets the start they have a better chance to cover than if Bolden starts. How nuts is that? You have no idea who will start. If McGloin starts and plays the whole game, Penn State wins by 2 TDs. If Bolden starts and they split time, Penn State wins by 3. Just stay away because if you bet it, all you are doing is guessing. You may get it right you may not but in the end, that's how you lose money.

[Hall2Collie]

[quote=Seaton420;11934075]

the close game at penn state shows nothing to me. Penn State would play a close game with our local YMCA football team filled with fat guys in their 40s


There's just nothing to really like about Purdue - Illinois is better at nearly every position with a huge advantage on the offensive side of the ball. In the only game against a decent offense this year, Purdue gave up 38 points and 550 yards to Notre Dame. I think Sheelhaase and that Illinois offense will have a big game here


With that being said, I'm probably not gonna play this game because of what you said with the terrible emotional loss last week against OSU. You just don't know how a team will react after that. On pure talent, Illinois is 14 points better on a neutral field than Purdue, but you just don't know how focused Illinois will be in this game





Great writeup and very true. Why would you want to pound the shit out of purdue playing a ranked team and your getting less than a TD. Illinois by 10.

Hahhahaha they hung with Penn st

You know who else hung with penn st and loss by less than a TD? INDIANA!!!

Ranked means nothing

Illnois is not a top 25 team in the nation.

[mission]

Just take the under 47.5 psu/nw