sandman week 8

Pin Fish · 10-17-11, 04:08 PM

I agree.....going with the points....also think FIU a better team....better QB and skill players

sandman0713 · 10-17-11, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by Pin Fish

I agree.....going with the points....also think FIU a better team....better QB and skill players

yeah i think you are correct man. asu does have a really, really good wr...but it shouldn't matter. the games where asu has played teams with any d at all their running game has been shut down. 2 even teams...i always gotta go with the team that can run the ball, and fiu looks like they can run it on anybody this year. gonna go small because there is a ton of excitement on the asu side. was reading their team page and it was "the first time this" and "the first time that"...they will be juiced up. fiu small for me.

fiu +3 for 1 unit

brahmabull117 · 10-17-11, 05:50 PM

I'm debating doing a 13 point teaser on all 4 sides of this game

just seems like one of those games that will be 27-24 nearly every time they play each other because they're so evenly matched up

sandman0713 · 10-17-11, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

I'm debating doing a 13 point teaser on all 4 sides of this game

just seems like one of those games that will be 27-24 nearly every time they play each other because they're so evenly matched up

will they let you do that? if so it might be good...lol. these teams are really even when you start looking at it. i am actually looking foward to watching it because i think it will be a great game.

brahmabull117 · 10-17-11, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by sandman0713

will they let you do that? .

yea I did it when tampa and colts played

sandman0713 · 10-17-11, 07:40 PM

thursday...

arizona -3 for 3 units: not going to dig deep on this one. arizona with the new coach additude against a ucla team that knows they will be losing theirs most likely at the end of the year. wish i knew for sure about the wr, but i don't think it matters either way. arizona has played one of the most brutal schedules in the nation, if not the most brutal, and i think they were just beaten down as a team. kind of a wake up call, and kind of a new start now. i just feel like they win this game, so no amount of talking about it or looking at stat's will change it.

uab +16 for 2 units: ucf d is great and all, but these guys don't even score 16 points often. i am almost certain from all i have read that ellis will play for uab, not that it matters much. this is a grind it out game with both teams struggling to score. i have watched uab twice and the d is not as bad as you might think by looking at the numbers. the stat's are skewed by a couple of games where uab was behind and had to pass, but they are pretty balanced on o and can run the ball. i liked what i saw against tulsa, and i think they are good for AT LEAST 10 points here. if ucf is gonna score 26+ then i will just have to see it to believe it, considering they are averaging like 15 the last 4 games. prolly on the "square" side here, but that hasn't been a bad thing thus far this season.

sandman0713 · 10-18-11, 05:10 AM

ok...time for friday.

w virginia -14 for 2 units: i look at this game and see cuse just getting clobbered. i started out looking for reasons to take the points, but couldn't find any. the wv d has held bg and uconn each to well under 300 yards in their last 2 and an average of 13 points...and cuse is a bad o that struggles to move the ball. cuse pass d is one of the worst in the country, and they are gonna get ripped. they can't load the box to slow down the run with a pass d like that, and i think this wv o is tougher for them to defend than the usc o that ripped them up...these guys put on almost 550 against lsu and cuse is gonna slow them down? may be close and emotional for a while, but no way cuse can score enough to keep up imo.

rutgers +2 for 2 units: i am completely thrown by this spread. i am sure someone will come and tell me what a square i am, but this looks simple. louisville can't score on anyone, and they will be facing one of the best d's in the big east friday. yes the louisville d is good, but the very best you could say about it is that the d's in this game are real even and cancel each other out. on the other side of the ball nobody can even make a realistic claim that the lu o is better than rutgers. square play or not, rutgers it is.

sandman0713 · 10-18-11, 01:50 PM

ok...weeknight i got...

fiu +3 for 2 units...added another unit, or another 20 bucks just so nobody thinks i am claiming to be a high roller...100 bucks tops for me on any single game.

arizona -3 for 3 units
uab +16 for 2 units

w virginia -14 for 2 units
rutgers +2 for 2 units

starting on the weekend today, tho so far all 3 i like are totals...so i guess i need to go research the weather since nobody responded to me weather thread. also, gonna post these totals here that i am watching instead of writing them in a notebook. not totals that i am betting, but just watching to see what they do...win or lose i mean. all they are is totals that have been moved by more than a point, early in the week before people start betting, and the only reference i am using at this point is the sbr lines. there aren't many totals that move like that so early in the week, and i am just curious.

clemson over 58 ** big mover
utah state over 58.5
florida state over 55
minnesota over 56.5
nevada over 59
tulsa under 58
houston over 59.5 ** big mover

like i said, i am not betting these. well i may end up on one or two, but not because of this. just curious about the early moving totals and how they do.

ok...weekend plays from now on.

sandman0713 · 10-18-11, 05:07 PM

penn state under 47.5 for 4 units: just get this one out of the way first. i have posted all the penn state d stats several times with these unders, so i am not posting them again. soon it will go over and i will lose 4 units...but until the i gotta keep riding.

sandman0713 · 10-19-11, 03:20 PM

arizona under 62 for 4 units: odd to find a weeknight game i play for more than 2 units, but i like this one. this game would have went under this total any of the last 5 years...and not much has changed really. ucla wants to run the ball, and the zona run d is not nearly as bad as some think. arizona wants to throw it all over and can't rush the ball for anything...and the ucla d hasn't allowed a 300 yard game thru the air since the first game against houston. nothing i see would lead me to thinking this game even makes it to 50.

sandman0713 · 10-19-11, 03:35 PM

oklahoma -29 for 3 units: tech giving up 40 points per game since big 12 play started, and doing so against 3 teams inferior to the ou o. this is all day domination in my opinion with tech turning the ball over and ou just piling on. 2 things i am almost certain of...no way is tech scoring more than 21 on ou, and no way is ou putting up under 50 on that d. lot of people getting busted on this game.

sandman0713 · 10-19-11, 03:46 PM

air force +31 for 2 units: just one that i have to play. boise has never even played against this o before, and i do believe that makes a huge difference. it takes time to get ready for, and it is not easy to simulate either. yes boise will score in bunches, but i see air force tearing that d up for at least the first half. this leads me to my favorite play on saturday and my first play over 5 units this year...

boise over 65 for 7 units

sandman0713 · 10-19-11, 03:50 PM

okstate over 68.5 for 4 units: osu going to score, no doubt. i also think we are going to have issues with the mobile qb from mizzou...meaning i think mizzou is gonna score as well. with both teams scoring this should fly over that.

sandman0713 · 10-19-11, 03:59 PM

ok...i am gonna leave it there for this week. i don't have much of a cushion after getting smacked last weekend, and i have more than normal riding on the weeknight games...and i already dropped 2 units last night. maybe if the weeknight games go really well i add one more saturday...but i doubt it. 43-39-1 and +6.6 units.

zona -3 for 3 units
zona under 62 for 4 units
uab +16 for 2 units

w virginia -14 for 2 units
rutgers +2 for 2 units

penn state under 47.5 for 4 units
oklahoma -29 for 3 units
air force +31 for 2 units
boise over 65 for 7 units
okstate over 68.5 for 4 units

gonna go about finding the best lines and betting these today and tomm, and then i am done for the week. hope everyone has a wonderful weekend.

sandman0713 · 10-21-11, 12:11 AM

crazy how this works. last week it was a fumble going in for the covering td by tulsa to screw me, but tonight an 8 point 2nd half in a game that had 49 at the half goes my way...lol. i will take it after the way i got bitched around last week tho. 46-39-1 and +14.7 units

w virginia -14 for 2 units
rutgers +2 for 2 units

penn state under 47.5 for 4 units
oklahoma -29 for 3 units
air force +31 for 2 units
boise over 65 for 7 units
okstate over 68.5 for 4 units

thinking i will prolly take the oklahoma 1st half line for 3 or 4 units, but i will post for sure after the line drops tomm night or saturday morning. wish i had done this in the 1st place instead of the game spread, but already bet it. gl all this weekend.

sandman0713 · 10-22-11, 12:11 AM

46-40-2 after a 0-1-1 night. guess i am lucky this was my smaller bet night and that i got rutgers when i did. 2 points seem so useless when you look at a spread...but nights like this is why i never turn down points. almost 20 years at this has taught me something at least...lol. +12.7 units on the year...or just over $250 for those that wonder. not the year i was hoping for so far. i am going after it tomm tho. posting a little extra as far as early games, then back later for more if it is going well.

iowa over 54.5 for 2 units: almost took this one early for a little more. i think it goes way over.

kansas state -10 for 2 units: i guess it is a rivalry and all, but people are way overthinking this.

okie state -7 for 2 units: spent so much time looking at this to post in other threads that i actually talked myself into action on my team.

also from before...
penn state under 47.5 for 4 units
oklahoma -29 for 3 units
air force +31 for 2 units
boise over 65 for 7 units
okie state over 68.5 for 4 units

sandman0713 · 10-22-11, 02:50 PM

4-0 morning making it 50-40-2 and +21.7 units this year.

penn state under 47.5 for 4 units
oklahoma -29 for 3 units
air force +31 for 2 units
boise over 65 for 7 units

adding a few smaller plays again.

penn state -4.5 for 2 units
usc +9.5 for 2 units
so miss -3 for 2 units
laffy -3 for 2 units

gl all.

sandman0713 · 10-22-11, 10:44 PM

lol...8-4 and i only made .2 units today. lost every big play and hit the small ones. 54-44-2 and +12.9 units...what a waste of a day...lol. 23.5 look like sucker points. i will lay that with hawaii back on the island and try to make some sort of gain on the day.

hawaii -23.5 for 2 units