Machine Choice: Ariz State at Oregon

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  • Machine Choice
    SBR MVP
    • 12-12-08
    • 3997

    #1
    Machine Choice: Ariz State at Oregon
    MACHINE CHOICE FOOTBALL: 21-10

    Last year when these two teams met in Tempe, ASU outgained the National Title contenders by 212 yards but lost the game due to 7 turnovers. Consider that last year's ASU team only had 8 returning starters for that matchup. This year's team is clearly better, not only as seen by their record but also by the fact that they returned 17 starters this year. In contrast, Oregon's team was dismantled in the offseason and now tonight: no LaMichael James. The loss of James is obviously serious, and let me just point out that he was averaging 8.7 ypc!! He is not replaceable.

    Tonight's Game: Osweiler regrouped after the rough start at Utah last week and ended up throwing for 325 yards and 3 TDs! The dirty little secret is that Utah actually has a better defense than Oregon's. I'm expecting Osweiler to erupt again tonight, as he has become better with each passing week. ASU's defense will give up some scores but they are far superior to Oregon's D-unit. ASU will cover on the strength of Osweiler and Gerrell Robinson, as well as at least three timely defensive stands.

    Concerns: Oregon had four additional days to prepare, ASU is down one OL and the center is gimpy, ASU has no rushing attack. However, the loss of LaMichael James and ASU's far superior defense means that 14 points is way too many.

    Predicted score:
    Oregon 33
    ASU 29

    ARIZONA STATE +14
  • numismatist
    SBR MVP
    • 10-02-11
    • 2192

    #2
    I love it, and was leaning on ASU myself. Best of luck Machine, looks like a really solid choice.
    Comment
    • Tanko
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-19-09
      • 5143

      #3
      Thanks. Great analysis. Can't argue with your pick.
      Comment
      • figue
        SBR MVP
        • 07-23-10
        • 2524

        #4
        Comment
        • brahmabull117
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-08-10
          • 8622

          #5
          no way in hell will it be that low scoring



          if it's a close game, it will be more like Oregon - 45, ASU - 38
          Comment
          • tokio
            SBR MVP
            • 03-30-10
            • 2150

            #6
            No James = No running up the boards.
            Comment
            • Machine Choice
              SBR MVP
              • 12-12-08
              • 3997

              #7
              One final thought on this game: after seeing USC blast Cal, which win was more impressive: ASU over USC, or Oregon over Cal?

              $761 to win $692
              Comment
              • brahmabull117
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 11-08-10
                • 8622

                #8
                Originally posted by tokio
                No James = No running up the boards.

                James' backups barner and thomas are both awesome....
                Comment
                • Machine Choice
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-12-08
                  • 3997

                  #9
                  Originally posted by brahmabull117
                  James' backups barner and thomas are both awesome....
                  They may be. Talk to me after they average 8.7 ypc.
                  Comment
                  • brahmabull117
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 8622

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Machine Choice
                    They may be. Talk to me after they average 8.7 ypc.

                    barner has averaged around 7.5 in 2 games against Cal and Arizona...


                    not much of a drop there really at all. If anything, it will be a more emotional loss
                    Comment
                    • ZBOIZ
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 06-22-08
                      • 21464

                      #11
                      This game will be wierd
                      Comment
                      • WoopTdo
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 09-18-09
                        • 269

                        #12
                        If this was being played in Tempe I'd be on it, and be smart about it (took the ML last year) but there in Oregon. I think there going to hang with them but I think Oregon is going to take it to them late in the game. Might see a backdoor cover but I'm putting my money on ASU +8 at the half so I can "enjoy" and hopefully watch them skewer the ducks with my money already won.
                        Comment
                        • Stevedore
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-10-10
                          • 1218

                          #13
                          Do you like ASU first half +7.5?
                          Comment
                          • Machine Choice
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-12-08
                            • 3997

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Stevedore
                            Do you like ASU first half +7.5?
                            I don't like these kinds of plays. No opinion.
                            Comment
                            • Lunatikz
                              Restricted User
                              • 09-26-11
                              • 28

                              #15
                              Got it at 14.5
                              BOL!
                              Comment
                              • WoopTdo
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 09-18-09
                                • 269

                                #16
                                Got my money, although ASU is still lookin good, may do some live bets
                                Comment
                                • Glitch
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 07-08-09
                                  • 11795

                                  #17
                                  oregons going to win for sure. theyve gotten some favorable calls and now ASU is about to get ed hockelied on what should be a fumble recovery.
                                  Comment
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