Week 7 Spladle08 Write ups

Outhouse Tim · 10-11-11, 05:53 PM

Thank you, and good luck to you as well.

grizzlies1 · 10-11-11, 06:15 PM

Thanks Spaddle!

Ice House · 10-12-11, 09:50 AM

what up spaddle

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 12:22 PM

Chillen ice house..working nights, just woke up bout to finalize my ticket for this weekend... u got any locks for me

Bucky buck · 10-12-11, 01:35 PM

nice write ups! thanks

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 01:38 PM

Thanks Bucky... and no problem! Good luck this weekend

Bucky buck · 10-12-11, 01:57 PM

BOL to you as well!

any thoughts on miss st/s.car??

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 03:47 PM

[COLOR=#000000 !important] USC vs CAL, USC-3 and Over 58.5
Note I made this bet without much research which I already frown upon, but maybe research will confirm my previous thoughts.
USC (30/26) 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS and 3-2 Over/Under
Cal (34/28) 3-2 SU, 2-3ATS and 3-2 O/U
Ok well those don’t say much, basically mirror images, let’s keep looking.
Fun fact, in all October games over the last 3 years USC is 8-1 Over/Under J I like that stat. As many people have said USC has kind-of “released” the offense over the past 3 games, Barkley going for 468 in their last outing but that was against a Zona team that is horrible against the pass. In the previous game the offense didn’t have much to brag about (but ASU has a pretty decent defense,) the USC D however gave up 43 (which will factor in to our over conversation later) anyways in the Syracuse game (final of the last 3 I will be citing) Barkley went crazy through the air going for 324 YDS, 5 TDs. Ok now that the stage is semi-set let’s look at the numbers. (I have to cite certain games because I can’t exactly value the 48yrds they held Presbyterian to because yeah) Cal has let Colorado go for 474 through the air 108 on the ground, Wash 292-117, and Oregon 365 on the ground and 198 through the air, as said before they did have decent outing against fresno and Presbyterian but lets not put to much weight into those games, between the Colorado/Oregon/Washington (1 poor, 1 middle of the road, and one good team) they average giving up 35pts per… and trust me USC is more than capable of putting up offensive numbers similar to Colorado/Washington. Now for Cal’s Offense vs USC’s Defense. Cal is averaging 147 on the ground and 300 through the air, conversely USC is allowing 112 on the ground and 267 through the air so don’t expect those numbers to change much. USC has given up over 40 in their last 2 games, while Cal has only managed to put up 23 and 15, I think you can count on Cal for 21+ here as they should have had more against Oregon meh look for them to rebound after their fail offensively last game, and obviously USC has a porous D. I would give you more number but girlfriend is still pouring out emotional baggage so I have to go, I will leave you with some generic stats and I hope this helped but I like both my plays, I hope you do to.
USC is 2-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
USC is 2-0 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Last 2 years totals,
2010 USC 48 Cal 14
2009 USC 30 Cal 3[/COLOR]

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 03:47 PM

I dont got much time now but I will get to South Carolina game before tonight

Cris_from_Europe · 10-12-11, 04:19 PM

Good Quality Write-ups Congrats !!! I would like to know your thoughts on Oh St @ Illinois this week. Also I'm looking for a good ML parlay or even a 4-6 team 7 point teaser. What would you suggest ? Had a very good ML parlay last week but got burned by Florida State ... grrrr .... So far for my ML parlay I got LSU + Washington + Oregon + Cincinnati .... trying to play decent home favs as I've learned for the past 2 weeks anything can happen on the road ... 1st I got burned my No Illinois then by Florida ST .... Would really appreciate your 0.02 on this. BOL

sovann80 · 10-12-11, 04:23 PM

please post your play as soon as you decide, interested to see

OptionsAddict · 10-12-11, 06:10 PM

First off, nice analysis. On the Penn State v. Purdue, I thought the same thing when I first saw the line but then I had a couple hesitations. There has to be inherent value in Penn State, as they are 1-4 ATS and 0-5 O/U. The betting public hates them for the reasons you laid out. That coupled with Purdue coming off a rout of Minny, with > 200 yds rushing, makes them look even worse laying this many pts. However, looking back at Purdue's schedule, that same running game that did that to Minny last week put up less than 100 yds rushing against a good defense and Purdue scored their only TD in the 4th quarter after ND had the game won and put it on cruise control.

Point being, although I don't disagree with the pick, I'd be careful of making it a big play.

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 06:36 PM

Bucky Buck, I couldn't convince myself one way or the other on that SC write-up and feel it would waste everyone's time, both QBs are new and the teams haven't played in awhile, I am just going to leave it be and assume you can get much better info from the thread dedicated to it (sorry I couldn't be any help)

Cris_From_EU I will look at Ill vs OHST, just know I think the Illini are pretenders and dont give them much credit, I was starting to think about jumping on the bandwagon but with Boom Herron and Braxton Miller both playing, Im hesitant to make any moves I will personally be staying away.
I cant argue with that 4team ML parlay but I'll see if I can find you one I like, here in a bit. and yeah NIU lost me an 8 teamer and a 7u 3 teamer that week against CMU... so irresponsible playing them in both parlays (mine were ATS) sigh

OptionsAddict thanks for the post, i wish I would have looked at that before I locked in my plays, I have them for 2u +11.5 and I just now (1 minute before I read your post) added them to a 4teamer, sigh hopefully they just cover and I get by with not doing enough homework.

spladle08 · 10-13-11, 12:32 AM

Illinois vs TOSU: OHST +4
Well I have said Illinois is a pretender since day 1 and haven’t seen too much reason to change my mind but let’s break this down. My early lean is Ohio State.
TOSU (24/17) 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 Over/Un
Ill (34-17) 6-6 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 Over/Under
So obviously Ill is averaging 10pts a game more and Ohio State’s offensive woes have been very publicized but do we assume we will see the offense from the first half of last week or the offense we have seen in every other game (point Illini). We all know Illinois can put up numbers; they are an extremely well balanced team putting up 210 on the ground and 224 through the air at home, while TOSU is giving up 236 on the ground and 157 through the air on the road. At home against a team they haven’t beaten since 07, (haven’t beaten at home since 91) and ranked as high as they have been in years… the offense should be ready to go. The big question mark in this game is whether or not their defense can contain Boom Herron and Braxton Miller. Herron has been suspended while Miller has seen limited playing time but looked phenomenal against Nebraska before his injury. This offensive unit averages 208 on the ground and 71 through the air in road games this year (169-146 in all games) and Illinois’s defense has looked solid, holding opponents to 79 on the ground and 217 through the air so that’s another thing Illini fans can cheer about. However with their star running back returning as well as having a great dual threat QB under center, look for OHST to put up one of their better offensive outings of the year. I can’t throw a ton of relevant stats at you because this isn’t the same OHST team that only loses a game or 2 each year. A stat like TOSU is 13-3 in all conference games over the last 3 season’s makes you have confidence in them, until you hear 2 of the losses were in the previous 2 games. Meh as far as this season goes, they beat Colorado by 20, Lost to a good Mich St team by 3, should have beat Nebraska had they not lost their QB (IMO), and are just a better team than people give the credit for. Illinois on the other hand, won 3 games in a row by 3 points before getting down by 10 early last week in a game against Indiana before coming back and winning by 21 but meh I’m unimpressed. True ASU is good, Western Mich is underrated, and NW is extremely unpredictable and plays some good teams very well, but they’ve been flirting with fire for weeks now, they haven’t beaten OHST in 8 tries at home, OHST is embarrassed from last game and with their star running back returning look for them to come out with a lot of enthusiasm, trying to avoid starting off their conference schedule 0-3 and simply winning this game. Im not calling it a 4 star pick but I definitely feel it gets 3. TOSU +4.
***Don’t forget the added pressure an undefeated record brings****

Cris_from_Europe · 10-13-11, 06:54 AM

Appreciate your time for this write-up. Think I'll stay clear of Illinois this week, I might consider teasing OHST above 10, like you said this one should stay pretty close with OHST have a real chance at a SU win.

Cris_from_Europe · 10-13-11, 11:49 AM

spladle08 please help me out with something: help me find 3 games where I can add 7 points to the existing total, so that I can parlay them for a crazyyy payout

for example Western MI @ NO Illinois right now is at 68 and I want to add another 7 to that and play it @ 75

I've already read your thoughts on Baylor @T A&M, OU@KS and OSU @ Texas but I was wondering if there are other games flying under the radar in the 50ish range that could easily go for an extra 7 points.

spladle08 · 10-13-11, 01:16 PM

hmmm lol I mean I think all of those could use an extra 7, but let me glance. Florida vs Auburn 49 seems suspect. Florida will put up points and I think both teams get their offense back on track after a disappointing last 2 weeks and less then impressive defensive units on the field look for mid 50's here (at least)
Look for the LSU over to be flying under the radar, they have only scored under 40 twice this year (35 vs Kentucky and 19 vs MissST) No reason to think Tennessee will slow them down. Total is at 43.5 could definitely stand 7

Lastly TT vs K-state, Tech has no team total less than 60 all year and that was their first game, their second and third game was 69, and in their last 2 games they have gone 79 and 85. Kstate has a scrappy team and a decent defense look for them to hang close but both teams should be in the 30's with tech possibly making mid 40's... this is no lock but at 60, I think you have a good shot of covering the extra 7.

Hope you win, good luck man

Bucky buck · 10-13-11, 01:46 PM

BOL spadle...thanks for the write ups....very good info.....i still ended up getting on sc, as well as bama, okla, and LSU......square as hell, but so be it....

spladle08 · 10-13-11, 01:48 PM

Lol you got this Bucky, good luck man.

king3chaz · 10-13-11, 03:35 PM

Thanks spladle! Can you post all final picks briefly when you get a chance? Thanks. Appreciate all the write offs!

spladle08 · 10-13-11, 03:37 PM

yeah I did in my other thread: http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...st-season.html
but here (i'm playing way to many games to show much profit but I got caught in the moment and feel fairly confident about every one)
New Ticket
SDSU/AF OV 59
USC -3
USC/CAL OV 58.5
Hawaii -5.5*
Toledo -7
Purdue +11.5
Baylor OV 75.5
Temple -21
OSU -7.5
OSU OV 64.5
NIU/WM OV 68.5
Clemson -9
Stanford -21
OU/KU OV 72
Oregon/ASU OV 66
TT/KSU over 60

DigBick86 · 10-13-11, 03:54 PM

nice thread

Can you please make it a little easier to read next write up talking about the USC-California game to blubby now

spladle08 · 10-13-11, 03:59 PM

Sorry its difficult to read BD86.... I have a short attention span so i get all the info I can out as fast as I can....

spladle08 · 10-14-11, 09:03 AM

Guess I'll do some of these for NFL games (tomorrow morning) if anyone is interested.

Cris_from_Europe · 10-14-11, 01:18 PM

Just pulled the trigger on the following ML/Teaser parlay:

LSU + PIT Steelers + GB Packers + Stanford -14 + Alabama -20.0 + Cincinnati + Washington.

What do you think ? which one will screw me this week ? Now i'm looking for a classic 4 team parlay what would you recommend ?

spladle08 · 10-14-11, 01:29 PM

I like it, u seem golden...
4 team Parlay
OU/KU over
TT/KSU over
Toledo -7
NIU/WM OV

Pelt · 10-14-11, 05:18 PM

Spladle, been tailing your picks for two weeks now. Thank you for the extra $$. I am not a capper just like the excitement of gambling. Your picks have made it somewhat profitable all the better. One question I need answered...what is "meh"

Mw1264 · 10-14-11, 05:28 PM

What's your thoughts on VT at -6.5 against Wake, I'm lean in on VT here with Josh Harris doubtful

spladle08 · 10-15-11, 04:29 PM

I didnt see that this thread had any new posts sorry for missing them guys. Today has started off well. 5-2-1 for football so far this week...
lol "meh" I say it often just like... indifference...meh *shoulder shrug*

MW1264 Im not sure what I think, sorry such a delayed response. I am busy again at work but will glance at the numbers real quick I know Wake is scrappy but not capable of blowing anyone out. Im going to read the espn breakdown then look at some stats.
OK well coming off the emotional win against Miami, VaTech is in a nice let-down spot. Look for a sub-par performance from Thomas after that video game outing last week. Tech needs to get the run going to have any success in the passing game, they average 192 a game but Wake has only been giving up 102. I think the Wake Defense and the Wake Passing game are what this game hinges on. They can both score and both will, but Wake is 4-1 ATS while VaTech is 1-5. And I dont think VaTech will add to the win column here. I think Wake has the momentum and nothing to lose. Vatech should win but it wont be by 7+ and it wont surprise me if Wake wins SU.

Im not playing it but if you are good luck!