Seriously, how does this lose??

Romanov · 10-06-11, 12:29 PM

(3000/3100)*(1500/1600)*(7000/7100)*(1250/1350)*(1050/1150)*(1100/1200) = 69.3%
I didn't take the dog side into account so 69.3% is overestimating, probably is in the low 60's.

So the lines are roughly telling you that this play will hit ~63/100 times. You are only getting $440 for $1000 bet. that won't be profitable over the long term unless you know more than the books and are picking these games with great accuracy (which would change the %). You would need this parlay to hit at least 69-70% of the time for it to be profitable. The books say you are losing ~5% of your bet with each play.

Hopefully this is one of the times it hits.

Good luck

sandman0713 · 10-06-11, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by upscope

I've been getting pounded last couple weeks. I've never tried this before. I just desperately need to pick UP a win or two. Thinking is there is simply NO CHANCE any of these teams lose outright. Just want to take the "free" $$ & (hopefully) get back on track.....6 team ML chalk parlay: Oregon -3000 (-24) Boise -1500 (-21) Alabama -7000 (-29) Clemson -1250 (-21) WV -1050 (-20) Rice -1100 (-20.5) $1,000 to win $440 Is this a "free" $440 or am I am I pressing w/ a disaster thought process??

i would say that desperation in general leads to trouble. most likely you hit that...but look at what you are risking. every year we have that one saturday at least where everything turns upside down. of course before the games it looks like easy money...but you just never know. if you are trying to make a certain number before a certain time for like a bill or something then i would say stop. if it is just to turn around your betting luck, and you are actually just fine in life with your financial situation, then i would say slow and steady man. you don't need to win it all back on one weekend...that is a recipe for trouble in my opinion. good luck though man with whatever.

MTek · 10-06-11, 12:49 PM

I hate to be the doom & gloom guy, but I've tried several of these types of parlays and there always seems to be 1 major upset in the bunch.
I do think its easy to see this as easy money but IMO the fewer teams the better

GL

letsgo · 10-06-11, 12:57 PM

The real question is, how often this year has 20+ favorites lost straight up?

ebbearsfb1 · 10-06-11, 01:14 PM

Take out rice if anything.. rice doesn't deserve to be a 20 point favorite over anybody... your better off putting mtsu tonight in there... and that will increase the pot a little bit.. good luck

spladle08 · 10-06-11, 01:17 PM

same way NIU got beasted by lowly CMU last week... = fail me

robinhood · 10-06-11, 01:20 PM

WOW! You are risking money on Rice? Rice is probably one of the worst D1 schools in football. Hate to say it, but you're in some trouble.

Duby · 10-06-11, 01:54 PM

I think only 2 or 3 teams lost this year as a -20+ fav

Coach Jake · 10-06-11, 01:55 PM

1st, if you've never tried this kind of bet then why so much? This season I have killed on my money line bets, and I agree with everyone on why Rice? I would much rather play Toledo!!! even South car with a ? quarterback is better I think. Either way, good luck!

Duby · 10-06-11, 01:57 PM

This is my ML parlay this week I believe around -130 odds: GT,Boise,WV,Clemson and Giants on Sunday.

Little advice on ML parlays...Stay away from Crap teams even if fav by 20.

GL hope you nail yours!

TheCommish · 10-06-11, 02:18 PM

I like it... just as long as the amount you risk won't kill you if it loses.

I do one each week, and have done well so far. I tend to look at the quality of the teams and not just the spread (see Rice above). I risk it a little further to get my odds a bit higher. This week I booked:

Oregon Ducks
Boise State Broncos
West Virginia Mountaineers
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Oklahoma Sooners
Florida State Seminoles
LSU Tigers
Baylor Bears

Just under 2 to 1 odds overall - $1000 to win $1915.

Definitely not "Free Money", but I like my chances. It's been profitable so far.

BigdaddyQH · 10-06-11, 02:23 PM

These wagers are basically losers. You are giving away too much. This is a poor wager because of that. The house is really gouging you. For every success story, there are 5 stories about people who lost.

Coach Jake · 10-06-11, 02:23 PM

Im going to play that same bet right there + toledo, and maybe a $10 bet, haha

Coach Jake · 10-06-11, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

These wagers are basically losers. You are giving away too much. This is a poor wager because of that. The house is really gouging you. For every success story, there are 5 stories about people who lost.

House wins the odds on parlays, but if you're good at picking winners than you shouldn't have problems. 20+ pt moneyline bets have been good for me this year, but I like betting straight ML or parlay just a few teams

Thien Co · 10-06-11, 02:58 PM

* Stay away from ML on Rice team. The other teams will hit. The last three weeks, I've tried ML on 10 to 12 teams ML. I got them all, except one time I had on Midd. Tennessee = failed.

* My recommendation is study carefully all the big points favored teams and play like this.

Ex: If u like Oregon -23.5 tonight, then play parlay Oregon + other strong teams . If u loose tonight, u don't have to pay $-10 extra. If u win, you will get paid a lot more than 100. I've been doing that for the last three weeks. I picked out about 5 or 6 teams, sometimes I add upto 10 teams

. I've been very patient and wait until the end on every Saturday to get big paid

from the plays on Mondays, Thursday, and Friday

. This week, I played Colt +11.5 + Over and with ML teams like Oregon, Boise, Ala, Clemson and W.V. You can check out and see how much you will get paid if you win.

I play like that because I don't like to pay extra if I lost. Everybody have different opinion, I respect that. I just want to share the way I play.

Tell me what u think , be nice

Good Lucks.

Vin_vermillion · 10-06-11, 03:05 PM

didnt rubber ducky go like 60-0 last year on games like these? Where is the rubber ducky when you need him?

upscope · 10-06-11, 03:50 PM

I appreciate the input especially the % breakdown by Romanov. I think we all know this isn't the way to go for the long run if you're a consistent gambler. It was just a change of pace. I can't seem to hit a strait bet right now so having 20 point favs strait UP & watching the blowouts roll in can do wonders for your confidence physiologically. And that's the goal. I generally bet anywhere from $100-$1000 per anyhow so $1000 wont bust me if it tanks. I'm not gonna lie, it will sting though

As far as Rice goes.....It was more going against Memphis more than anything. I mean they are fuggin' horrid!! Rice isn't great but they can @ least score. They put UP 31 on Baylor & 24 vs Southern Miss. They also beat Purdue on the road. They can't be that bad can they?? Memphis on the other hand scored just 3 on Arkansas St & got shut out vs SMU. No reason Rice shouldn't win on their home field?? I do agree however that if any of these teams lose it's Rice. In hindsight, maybe there were better 20+ point favs on the board?? But some of you guys are talking as if this game can go either way?? Any way you look @ it they're still a 20 point fav & sometimes you just have to trust that the books know what they're doing??