Season Record 5-2-0 +26.1u
Hey SBR Forums! Hoping to get an early one in here before the line changes. Had a great finisher to the weekend hitting a complete guess pleaser so I could watch the NFL with some friends. Feeling like a gambler right now, so let's get rockin' with a game that's going to slip through a lot of radars:
Arizona St. @ Utah
Arizona St. Wow! Look at all those injuries! Eleven total injuries (four of which are questionable, six on defense, five on offense) could hamstring any team in the NCAA. Unless of course they don't ever see the field anyway. I know the formatting looks awful (sorry about that), but I'm going to try my best to list each injury and the relevant stats:
Brandon Magee (LB sr.) Out For Season (achilles) 2010 Stats: 75 Tack,1.5 Sack 2011 Stats: None
Omar Bolden (CB sr.) Out For Season (knee) 2010 stats: 52 Tack,3 Int 2011 Stats: None
Ezekiel Bishop (S fr.) Out For Season (ACL) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
J.J. Holliday (WR so.) Out For Season (shoulder) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Devan Spann (CB fr.) Out For Season (shoulder) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Nduka (Junior) Onyeali (DE so.) Out Indefinitely (knee) 2010 Stats: 18 Tack, 6.5 Sack 2011 Stats: 5 Tack, 1 Sack
Joita Te'i (DT fr.) Out Indefinitely (foot) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
T.J. Simpson (WR sr.) Questionable Week 5 (knee) 2010 Stats: 29 Rec, 481 yards 2011 Stats: None
Aderious Simmons (T sr.) Questionable Week 5 (ankle) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Deantre Lewis (RB so.) Questionable Week 5 (hamstring) 2010 Stats: 92 ATT, 539 yards, 4 TDs 2011 Stats: None
Adam Tello (G, sr.) Questionable Week 5 (back) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Breaking it down further Arizona State has lost a great linebacker, a great cornerback, a pass rusher and a back-up running back. Going even further only one of those players has seen any action this season. The key idea I would like to convey here is that we can judge Arizona State's performance this year without taking into account this intimidating menagerie of names. Arizona State is 4-1 only losing to Illinois by 3 points this season. The Sun Devils have impressed in every game this year, most notably against Mizzou in week 2. Arizona State's primary offense is the aerial attack and preys on weak secondaries.
Statistics
Brock Osweiler (QB jr.) is 6'8" and uses every inch of it. He has completed 117 passes out of 172 attempts (68% completion) boasting an impressive passer-rating of 146.3. He is a pocket passer, but will abandon the pocket when necessary and is not easy to bring down having only been sacked 12 times in 5 games and rushing for two TDs. Osweiler has a 1.7 TD:INT ratio. Cameron Marshall (RB jr.) is not stellar, but is playing for a much better season this year. Marshall has 81 attempted rushes for 374 yards averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but can catch the ball as well recording 12 receptions for 123 yards and averaging 10.3 yards per catch. He is improving week-by-week moving from 2.8 yards per carry against Mizzou to 5.3, 5.6 and 5.7 yards per carry in the last three weeks. I see don't see Marshall having a career day here by any means, but to have consistent gains and to gain the hard fought yards on third down. Aaron Pflugrad is where the fireworks will be in this one. Aaron Pflugrad (WR sr.) and Gerell Robinson (WR sr.) will be looking for big numbers against a very soft Utah secondary. Combining for 7 TDs this season, Pflugrad will burn by safeties and Robinson will be towering over cornerbacks. Look for Osweiler to be connecting with Pflugrad for 15+ yards and taking the underneath to Robinson very often in this one. The Sun Devil defense forced 1 fumble and 4 interceptions last week against Oregon State, 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions the week before against the USC Trojans and 2 fumbles and 1 interceptions against the Illini. This is a team that will force good offenses to make mistakes and bad ones to look silly.
Utah looks bad. I wish I would have gotten the time to write them up last week, they never stood a chance against a very middle-of-the-road Washington team. Utah is receiving a good deal of attention this year for downing BYU. Wynn Jordan (QB jr.) is hurt. It hasn't shown up officially anywhere I have come across, but in a quote from Kyle Whittingham "We'll know more tomorrow and a lot more Monday, but it doesn't look good." Wynn missed the second half of last weeks games with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Jon Hays (QB jr.) was the back-up quarterback on Saturday and is assumed to get the start next week. Hays is hard to get much of a feel for only having 1 career attempted pass prior to last weeks game. Other than Hays, no quarterback has any collegiate stats for Utah. The one positive thing I have to give Utah is that they are very disciplined. Arizona State will not get much help in the way of penalties.
Statistics Despite holding a despicable BYU team to 10 points, Utah allowed 343 yards through the air. Other than BYU, Utah has only been able to hold Montana State to less that 400 total yards, giving up 543 to Boise, 416 to USC and 411 to Washington. In the most recent game, Washington scored in every quarter as Utah turned the ball over 5 times with 3 fumbles and two interceptions. John White IV (RB jr.) had 14 attempted rushes last week for 35 yards, averaging a sub-par 2.5 yards per carry. White has been completely unpredictable this season; averaging 7.9 yards per carry in both Utah wins over Montana State and BYU and a dismal 2.8 and 2.5 yards per carry in Utah's losses to USC and Washington. White is averaging 1 reception per game for an average of 4 yards per catch. Utah boasts a few very good receivers in DeVonte Christopher (WR jr.), Josh Gordon (WR jr.) and Dres Anderson (WR fr.), but with an inexperienced back up quarterback against a tenacious Sun Devil secondary its going to be hard to get into any sort of rhythm. Dropped passes and misunderstood routes will be the name of the game for the Utes.
Personal Notes
Arizona State will be coming away with interceptions and fumbles, if the offense can avoid making the same mistakes they should enjoy a three-score lead.
The Utah running game is weak at best. With an inexperienced Utah quarterback in the pocket, Arizona State is going to have an easy time forcing 3-and-outs.
As far as an O/U, the books haven't released any numbers yet. I will likely be updating to take the Utah TT under unless it is unreasonable. I'll hopefully be updating when this information becomes available.
My Picks
Arizona St. -3 @ 5u
and likely more to come
Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use, but not all for the sake of time. I appreciate everyone for reading and hope this information is useful, whether it is followed or something inspires the opposite bet. Again, Thank you for reading!
Hey SBR Forums! Hoping to get an early one in here before the line changes. Had a great finisher to the weekend hitting a complete guess pleaser so I could watch the NFL with some friends. Feeling like a gambler right now, so let's get rockin' with a game that's going to slip through a lot of radars:
Arizona St. @ Utah
Arizona St. Wow! Look at all those injuries! Eleven total injuries (four of which are questionable, six on defense, five on offense) could hamstring any team in the NCAA. Unless of course they don't ever see the field anyway. I know the formatting looks awful (sorry about that), but I'm going to try my best to list each injury and the relevant stats:
Brandon Magee (LB sr.) Out For Season (achilles) 2010 Stats: 75 Tack,1.5 Sack 2011 Stats: None
Omar Bolden (CB sr.) Out For Season (knee) 2010 stats: 52 Tack,3 Int 2011 Stats: None
Ezekiel Bishop (S fr.) Out For Season (ACL) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
J.J. Holliday (WR so.) Out For Season (shoulder) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Devan Spann (CB fr.) Out For Season (shoulder) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Nduka (Junior) Onyeali (DE so.) Out Indefinitely (knee) 2010 Stats: 18 Tack, 6.5 Sack 2011 Stats: 5 Tack, 1 Sack
Joita Te'i (DT fr.) Out Indefinitely (foot) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
T.J. Simpson (WR sr.) Questionable Week 5 (knee) 2010 Stats: 29 Rec, 481 yards 2011 Stats: None
Aderious Simmons (T sr.) Questionable Week 5 (ankle) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Deantre Lewis (RB so.) Questionable Week 5 (hamstring) 2010 Stats: 92 ATT, 539 yards, 4 TDs 2011 Stats: None
Adam Tello (G, sr.) Questionable Week 5 (back) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Breaking it down further Arizona State has lost a great linebacker, a great cornerback, a pass rusher and a back-up running back. Going even further only one of those players has seen any action this season. The key idea I would like to convey here is that we can judge Arizona State's performance this year without taking into account this intimidating menagerie of names. Arizona State is 4-1 only losing to Illinois by 3 points this season. The Sun Devils have impressed in every game this year, most notably against Mizzou in week 2. Arizona State's primary offense is the aerial attack and preys on weak secondaries.
Statistics
Brock Osweiler (QB jr.) is 6'8" and uses every inch of it. He has completed 117 passes out of 172 attempts (68% completion) boasting an impressive passer-rating of 146.3. He is a pocket passer, but will abandon the pocket when necessary and is not easy to bring down having only been sacked 12 times in 5 games and rushing for two TDs. Osweiler has a 1.7 TD:INT ratio. Cameron Marshall (RB jr.) is not stellar, but is playing for a much better season this year. Marshall has 81 attempted rushes for 374 yards averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but can catch the ball as well recording 12 receptions for 123 yards and averaging 10.3 yards per catch. He is improving week-by-week moving from 2.8 yards per carry against Mizzou to 5.3, 5.6 and 5.7 yards per carry in the last three weeks. I see don't see Marshall having a career day here by any means, but to have consistent gains and to gain the hard fought yards on third down. Aaron Pflugrad is where the fireworks will be in this one. Aaron Pflugrad (WR sr.) and Gerell Robinson (WR sr.) will be looking for big numbers against a very soft Utah secondary. Combining for 7 TDs this season, Pflugrad will burn by safeties and Robinson will be towering over cornerbacks. Look for Osweiler to be connecting with Pflugrad for 15+ yards and taking the underneath to Robinson very often in this one. The Sun Devil defense forced 1 fumble and 4 interceptions last week against Oregon State, 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions the week before against the USC Trojans and 2 fumbles and 1 interceptions against the Illini. This is a team that will force good offenses to make mistakes and bad ones to look silly.
Utah looks bad. I wish I would have gotten the time to write them up last week, they never stood a chance against a very middle-of-the-road Washington team. Utah is receiving a good deal of attention this year for downing BYU. Wynn Jordan (QB jr.) is hurt. It hasn't shown up officially anywhere I have come across, but in a quote from Kyle Whittingham "We'll know more tomorrow and a lot more Monday, but it doesn't look good." Wynn missed the second half of last weeks games with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Jon Hays (QB jr.) was the back-up quarterback on Saturday and is assumed to get the start next week. Hays is hard to get much of a feel for only having 1 career attempted pass prior to last weeks game. Other than Hays, no quarterback has any collegiate stats for Utah. The one positive thing I have to give Utah is that they are very disciplined. Arizona State will not get much help in the way of penalties.
Statistics Despite holding a despicable BYU team to 10 points, Utah allowed 343 yards through the air. Other than BYU, Utah has only been able to hold Montana State to less that 400 total yards, giving up 543 to Boise, 416 to USC and 411 to Washington. In the most recent game, Washington scored in every quarter as Utah turned the ball over 5 times with 3 fumbles and two interceptions. John White IV (RB jr.) had 14 attempted rushes last week for 35 yards, averaging a sub-par 2.5 yards per carry. White has been completely unpredictable this season; averaging 7.9 yards per carry in both Utah wins over Montana State and BYU and a dismal 2.8 and 2.5 yards per carry in Utah's losses to USC and Washington. White is averaging 1 reception per game for an average of 4 yards per catch. Utah boasts a few very good receivers in DeVonte Christopher (WR jr.), Josh Gordon (WR jr.) and Dres Anderson (WR fr.), but with an inexperienced back up quarterback against a tenacious Sun Devil secondary its going to be hard to get into any sort of rhythm. Dropped passes and misunderstood routes will be the name of the game for the Utes.
Personal Notes
Arizona State will be coming away with interceptions and fumbles, if the offense can avoid making the same mistakes they should enjoy a three-score lead.
The Utah running game is weak at best. With an inexperienced Utah quarterback in the pocket, Arizona State is going to have an easy time forcing 3-and-outs.
As far as an O/U, the books haven't released any numbers yet. I will likely be updating to take the Utah TT under unless it is unreasonable. I'll hopefully be updating when this information becomes available.
My Picks
Arizona St. -3 @ 5u
and likely more to come
Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use, but not all for the sake of time. I appreciate everyone for reading and hope this information is useful, whether it is followed or something inspires the opposite bet. Again, Thank you for reading!
