Auburn @ South Carolina - Fawkes Write Up

DennisT · 09-30-11, 06:13 PM

Very good report. Will give some serious thought!

Sabear · 09-30-11, 08:13 PM

Question: Have you personally watched Auburn play an entire game this year?

Boxer300 · 09-30-11, 08:35 PM

Auburn's D will not stop Lattimore... that's all you need to know.

CBASS · 09-30-11, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by Boxer300

Auburn's D will not stop Lattimore... that's all you need to know.

This ^^^^

Semper Fidelis · 09-30-11, 08:55 PM

I actually like Auburn as well in this one. I believe South Carolina, as good as they are, are very prone to inconsistencies. And I also believe Auburn is better than a lot of people give them credit for. Sure, they've played some pretty close games, but I think you can agree with with that if their defense can limit Lattimore (they certainly won't be able to stop him), SC will be in trouble if they flying themselves down early and have to rely on Garcia. We all know how horrible he looks sometimes-look at last weeks game against Vandy. That being said, so long as Auburn limits the ground game, I believe their offense can score against SC's defense. I feel this game will be a lot closer than people will expect, as Auburn has had their number over the years, just as they have had Florida's as well. Being a Dawg myself, I can truly say this without any bias at all lol

SimonSayz · 09-30-11, 08:57 PM

This will be very high scoring....auburn cannot stop anyone. I do see them putting up 30+ points though. Take the over.

brewcrew2k · 09-30-11, 09:39 PM

Big revenge game for the cocks...

MoneyLineDawg · 09-30-11, 10:02 PM

Your main fallacy in this write-up is believing that Auburn stacking the box= stopping or even slowing down Lattimore.......Auburns's defense has no talent and no one on the field can tackle. This is a recipe for disaster for Auburn. Lattimore has averaged almost 6 yards a carry on the year and every defense SC has played has stacked the box. He has 9 TD's in 4 games and ran for 112,176, 246, and 77 yards in each game.

On defense, South Carolina has what I believe to be the best D-line in the country, atleast from a pass-rushing standpoint......They really do have talent all over the field on D overall but have made a ton of mental mistakes early in the year, atleast the 1st 3 games of the season. If they put it all together, like they did last week, they will be a great defense the rest of the way......They are also a big play defense and have scored an amazing 4 TD's on defense and 2 special teams TD's while forcing 13 turnovers in 4 games.

I really feel like South Carolina will roll here, and I usually don't feel that way as a USC alum and fan. The Gamecocks are really starting to play up to their potential and if Garcia can atleast play similar to how he did last season and cut down on the turnovers and make a few more plays, they will be that much tougher to beat. Auburn's offense should be able to score some, but SC will be able to force turnovers and could shut them down if they play like they have the ability to. Lattimore will basically run over Auburn on D and if they cheat up too much, they have A TOP 3 WR in the country, in Alshon Jeffrey, to deal with

The crowd will be crazy tomorrow as this is the SEC game of the week on CBS and you better believe the Gamecocks are thinking payback from last year. Steve Spurrier would love to run up the score tomorrow and there will be extra motivation in the air as the Gamecocks will be having a ceremony for the Under Armour Wounded Warrior project. They will be wearing these tight jerseys:

South Carolina: 41 Auburn: 20

Jive · 09-30-11, 10:26 PM

Love when you guys give in-depth opinions on a game. I don't trust Auburn to stop Lattimore and I don't trust Garcia EVER enough to lay that many points against a decent team. I would love to take Auburn +10.5 but I might end up passing.

MoneyLineDawg · 09-30-11, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by Jive

Love when you guys give in-depth opinions on a game. I don't trust Auburn to stop Lattimore and I don't trust Garcia EVER enough to lay that many points against a decent team. I would love to take Auburn +10.5 but I might end up passing.

Fair point on Garcia....he is in a slump right now, but if he can just play decent the Gamecocks will roll. Even if he plays like he has been I still think the Gamecocks win by 6-9. Lattimore is going to absolutely run over Auburn, you'll see

JT OZ · 09-30-11, 10:31 PM

Those are real nice, looking forward to seeing them. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Auburn hanging around for awhile mainly because of how mistake-prone the Cocks can be but I still think SC wins by 10+

mstone897 · 10-01-11, 01:10 AM

MLD is on the money on this one. I also am a USC alum and am NEVER confident in USC EVER. This week I am. No offense Fawkes but it seems like you've done more box score reading than watching. I also think you're giving Utah State more credit than they deserve. That game never should have been close. They beat a TERRIBLE FAU team by 16 last week at home at night. Their offense struggled and so did their defense. It was a game to correct things and get momentum but for me it was yet another warning sign for a struggling team. FAU was held to 3 total points by Michigan State and Florida. They had 1 first down all game against MSU. After last season it's safe to say USC fans HATE Auburn. Williams Brice is going to be much louder than the fake Death Valley they played at in Clemson 2 weeks ago. USC players and coaches won't admit it but the 2 losses to Auburn last year were humiliating. USC will have no shame in taking that out on Barrett Trotter tomorrow afternoon.

WarEagle43 · 10-01-11, 01:28 AM

Well, as an Auburn fan and bama grad, I feel you must be a true fan of my "Heartatackids". That being said our defense is not unlike a bowlegged fellow trying to catch a hog in a dicth! While I give our offense credit and Trotter for being above average I feel like this will be a whipping that, because of Ted Roof and his complex defensive plans that will smart for a year or two, or at least until he is replaced, which will be after this season. I hope that my Tigers can keep it close, but if our D plays as it has...there is no way we stay close..BOL

CBASS · 10-01-11, 02:12 AM

Originally posted by guy Fawkes

Posted picks 2-0-0 +15.5u

Hey SBR Forums! I looked for my dog this week and I found it. Not expecting many people to agree with me today, but information is always good; agree or otherwise. As always, feel free to post anything and everything and thanks for taking the time to read!

Auburn @ South Carolina

Auburn is 3-1. I think that's a statistic a lot of people (including experts) have overlooked. Are they lucky to be 3-1? Probably. If you throw out the Clemson game and one key play against Utah State I could easily see Auburn ranked in the top 10 and bumping the Gamecocks lower. That being said, reality is what it is. You can't change it to pick teams as you wish. What I believe you can do (and what I believe Gene Chizik has done for his team) is acknowledge it and establish where you are here-and-now. Auburn is 3-1 with a young defense who has made a lot of mistakes in the early part of this season.

Stats With 1495 total yards of offense, Auburn is right about where they should be. Barrett Trotter (QB jr.) is averaging a passer rating of 148.7, 33rd best in the NCAA. Backing up Trotter is a stud in Michael Dyer (RB so.). Dyer is averaging 6.9 yards per carry (7th highest in the NCAA for RBs with more than 50 carries) and scored 6 TDs, 2 each in the harder fought games this season. The little guy (5'9") plays big in big games, in Auburns one loss this year Dyer ran for 16 carries and 151 yards averaging 9.4 yards per carry. Auburn's defense has been abysmal this season. They are giving up an average of 100 yards per game more than the Gamecocks. There are also two defensive lineman that are not likely to see game time for the season in Justin Delaine and Dee Ford. There is no getting around it, the defense has to find a way to play.

South Carolina is 4-0. I think that's a statistic a lot of people (including experts) have given too much credit. Are they lucky to be 4-0? Probably not. The Gamecocks have had the benefit of an easy road and a lot of publicity this year. South Carolina lacks any consistency through the air and will allow Auburn to stack the box against Marcus Lattimore (RB so.).

Stats South Carolina has received a lot of flak this year for its defense not playing up to its potential allowing 21 points to Navy, 42 points to Georgia and 37 points to East Carolina. I won't deny the Gamecocks held Vandy to 3 points last week, but you can take that for what you will. Taking the Vandy game out of the equation, the Gamecocks have given up an average of 372 total yards per game and allowed 274 rushing yards against Navy. Stephen Garcia (QB sr.) has thrown 7 interceptions and 3 TDs this year, completing 54.7% of his passes for 684 yards through 4 games, averaging a dismal 171 yards per game and boasting a 110.9 passer rating. Marcus Lattimore is amazing, there is no getting around that. He is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 107 attempts scoring 9 of SC's 11 offensive TDs this year (8 on the ground and 1 through the air). Spurrier is determined to get the ball in Lattimore's hands and Auburn knows it.

Trends Firstly, the Gamecocks have never beaten Auburn. Ever. Auburn is 4-1-1 ATS since 1996 (I don't think digging back to 1964 is overly prudent).

With both defenses being sub-par the biggest statistic I am looking at is that the Gamecocks are scoring only 2.2 points more per game than Auburn is against a tougher schedule.

Personal ThoughtsAuburn is not out of contention at this point. Auburn found a way to win against an underrated Utah State offense and only went down against a Clemson team that is on fire right now. Look for Chizik to rally his players and communicate this hinge-point of Auburns season.

Auburn is going to stuff the box against Lattimore; its virtually a given. Garcia will have to go to the air against a very physical Auburn secondary who snagged 3 turnovers last week.

For anyone reading for totals info, I really like the under for this game. Obviously that flies in the face of everything I just wrote (and explains why I'm not using it as a posted play), but I like to use different stats in determining totals. I see this coming down as a 28-20 game.

My picks

Auburn +10.5 @ 5.5u
Auburn ML @ 2u

May try to squeeze one more write up in before tomorrow morning on Texas @ Iowa State or Washington @ Utah. Thanks for reading!

I'm on the other side, but thanks for posting! I really appreciate you taking the time to give as much analysis as possible on a game. Nicely done.

cant call it · 10-01-11, 08:48 AM

Good luck I respect you taking a shot here, but think its a very very long shot myself

HoldEmHook!! · 10-01-11, 08:50 AM

Bottom line is Spurrier never forgets and he wont hesitate to run up the score after last years SEC championship beat down Auburn gave SC. South Carolina as big as they can make it, but cover for sure.

Spartan14745 · 10-01-11, 09:01 AM

You SC backers act like Auburn had a good D last year. They didn't and they STILL STOPPED LATTIMORE. Auburn players like to stick it to Lattimore since he chose to go to SC instead of Auburn (when Dyer already committed to AU I can't blame him for going somewhere else where he'd get all the playing time). 10.5 is too high for an SEC game where both teams are pretty close in talent. Take AU.....WDE!!

Spartan14745 · 10-01-11, 09:04 AM

I'm not too worried about Lattimore, he's a good-to-great RB but he can be stopped. The Gamecock that I'll be focusing on is true freshman Jadeveon Clowney. The guy is a frickin' beast so I can see Barrett having some trouble getting around him with his legs if he has to.

AdaBarber · 10-01-11, 09:12 AM

I took Auburn +10.5. I am a USC alumni. I can't stand Garcia. If you know what I know take the points!

HoldEmHook!! · 10-01-11, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by Spartan14745

You SC backers act like Auburn had a good D last year. They didn't and they STILL STOPPED LATTIMORE. Auburn players like to stick it to Lattimore since he chose to go to SC instead of Auburn (when Dyer already committed to AU I can't blame him for going somewhere else where he'd get all the playing time). 10.5 is too high for an SEC game where both teams are pretty close in talent. Take AU.....WDE!!

WDE=Worst Defense Ever. Tell Chezick his spread defense is pittiful

king3chaz · 10-01-11, 09:18 AM

This is a HUGE revenge game for S. Carolina. Tigers beat Gamecocks twice last season, but that was a completely different Auburn team. Look for QB Stephen Garcia to have his best game of the season. Coach Spurrier wants this game bad and look for him to blow this one out. South Carolina 42 - Auburn 21

Sabear · 10-01-11, 09:32 AM

[quote=MoneyLineDawg;11672861]Your main fallacy in this write-up is believing that Auburn stacking the box= stopping or even slowing down Lattimore.......Auburns's defense has no talent and no one on the field can tackle. This is a recipe for disaster for Auburn. Lattimore has averaged almost 6 yards a carry on the year and every defense SC has played has stacked the box. He has 9 TD's in 4 games and ran for 112,176, 246, and 77 yards in each game.

On defense, South Carolina has what I believe to be the best D-line in the country, atleast from a pass-rushing standpoint......They really do have talent all over the field on D overall but have made a ton of mental mistakes early in the year, atleast the 1st 3 games of the season. If they put it all together, like they did last week, they will be a great defense the rest of the way......They are also a big play defense and have scored an amazing 4 TD's on defense and 2 special teams TD's while forcing 13 turnovers in 4 games.

I really feel like South Carolina will roll here, and I usually don't feel that way as a USC alum and fan. The Gamecocks are really starting to play up to their potential and if Garcia can atleast play similar to how he did last season and cut down on the turnovers and make a few more plays, they will be that much tougher to beat. Auburn's offense should be able to score some, but SC will be able to force turnovers and could shut them down if they play like they have the ability to. Lattimore will basically run over Auburn on D and if they cheat up too much, they have A TOP 3 WR in the country, in Alshon Jeffrey, to deal with

The crowd will be crazy tomorrow as this is the SEC game of the week on CBS and you better believe the Gamecocks are thinking payback from last year. Steve Spurrier would love to run up the score tomorrow and there will be extra motivation in the air as the Gamecocks will be having a ceremony for the Under Armour Wounded Warrior project. They will be wearing these tight jerseys:

South Carolina: 41 Auburn: 20

I don't understand how you can claim USC has a best "anything" on D given the following point totals:

East Car- Gave up 37
Georgia - Gave up 42!!
Navy - Gave up 21!
Vandy - Gave up 3

jpowderly · 10-01-11, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by HoldEmHook!!

Bottom line is Spurrier never forgets and he wont hesitate to run up the score after last years SEC championship beat down Auburn gave SC. South Carolina as big as they can make it, but cover for sure.

Sure Spurrier would love to run up the score , but big BUtt South Carolina has not been able to run up the score on anyone so far. Vandy has no offense that is why South Carolina D look so good . Until they put together a complete game offense and defense I am betting against South Carolina.

Sabear · 10-01-11, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by Spartan14745

I'm not too worried about Lattimore, he's a good-to-great RB but he can be stopped. The Gamecock that I'll be focusing on is true freshman Jadeveon Clowney. The guy is a frickin' beast so I can see Barrett having some trouble getting around him with his legs if he has to.

--- not worried about Lattimore??

True words spoken from a true Aub. All in!

mmike032 · 10-01-11, 10:27 AM

Lattimore has another 150+ rushing game.
gamecocks offense is the same as UGAs in '80
just give the ball to Herschal.../ Lattimore

if Lattimore gets hurt this yr SC is in trouble

mstone897 · 10-01-11, 11:29 AM

[QUOTE=Sabear;11677705]

Originally posted by MoneyLineDawg

Your main fallacy in this write-up is believing that Auburn stacking the box= stopping or even slowing down Lattimore.......Auburns's defense has no talent and no one on the field can tackle. This is a recipe for disaster for Auburn. Lattimore has averaged almost 6 yards a carry on the year and every defense SC has played has stacked the box. He has 9 TD's in 4 games and ran for 112,176, 246, and 77 yards in each game.

On defense, South Carolina has what I believe to be the best D-line in the country, atleast from a pass-rushing standpoint......They really do have talent all over the field on D overall but have made a ton of mental mistakes early in the year, atleast the 1st 3 games of the season. If they put it all together, like they did last week, they will be a great defense the rest of the way......They are also a big play defense and have scored an amazing 4 TD's on defense and 2 special teams TD's while forcing 13 turnovers in 4 games.

I really feel like South Carolina will roll here, and I usually don't feel that way as a USC alum and fan. The Gamecocks are really starting to play up to their potential and if Garcia can atleast play similar to how he did last season and cut down on the turnovers and make a few more plays, they will be that much tougher to beat. Auburn's offense should be able to score some, but SC will be able to force turnovers and could shut them down if they play like they have the ability to. Lattimore will basically run over Auburn on D and if they cheat up too much, they have A TOP 3 WR in the country, in Alshon Jeffrey, to deal with

The crowd will be crazy tomorrow as this is the SEC game of the week on CBS and you better believe the Gamecocks are thinking payback from last year. Steve Spurrier would love to run up the score tomorrow and there will be extra motivation in the air as the Gamecocks will be having a ceremony for the Under Armour Wounded Warrior project. They will be wearing these tight jerseys:

South Carolina: 41 Auburn: 20

I don't understand how you can claim USC has a best "anything" on D given the following point totals:

East Car- Gave up 37
Georgia - Gave up 42!!
Navy - Gave up 21!
Vandy - Gave up 3

You're simply gonna look at how many points were scored as an argument to whether or not they have 1 of the best defensive lines in the country? The easily do. You find me 3 better pass rushers on one line than Clowney, Ingram, and Taylor.

mstone897 · 10-01-11, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by Spartan14745

I'm not too worried about Lattimore, he's a good-to-great RB but he can be stopped. The Gamecock that I'll be focusing on is true freshman Jadeveon Clowney. The guy is a frickin' beast so I can see Barrett having some trouble getting around him with his legs if he has to.

LOLOLOL. If Lattimore is just "good to great" than Dyer is simply average. Lattimore is the best back in the country. You're probably one of the bandwagon Auburn fans that gave up and left early against Utah State.

guy Fawkes · 10-01-11, 06:33 PM

Congratulations to any who backed me or may have used this post to influence their decision. Thank you to everyone who commented and brought additional information to the discussion.

Go Auburn

Record 5-1-0 +27.1u

jspectyper · 10-01-11, 06:37 PM

Had auburn as well

. Thoughts on the bama game? You just gotta think bama rolls here.

guy Fawkes · 10-01-11, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by jspectyper

Had auburn as well

. Thoughts on the bama game? You just gotta think bama rolls here.

Not a posted pick for me, but yeah Bama rolls. I've got them at -13 in a pleaser for a big pay day.

jspectyper · 10-01-11, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by guy Fawkes

Not a posted pick for me, but yeah Bama rolls. I've got them at -13 in a pleaser for a big pay day.

Nice, I just think bamas defense is gonna really make brantley struggle and I'm not buying the gator hype. Well heres good luck to us

.

guy Fawkes · 10-02-11, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by jspectyper

Nice, I just think bamas defense is gonna really make brantley struggle and I'm not buying the gator hype. Well heres good luck to us

.

Sorry I didn't get a chance to come back sooner, congrats on taking 'Bama. Had a good time watching that one, Alabama looks like they're a football team that is out there playing hard and having a lot of fun; hard not to have fun with them.

One last thing before I leave the thread, I don't mean to ignore anyone's post or opinion. I thank everyone that came in here to compliment the write up or support my decision. I also appreciate everyone who came into to point out holes in my logic or even outright disagree with me. I don't like to respond directly because these write-ups are just that write-ups. I use a god awful amount of statistics that go into my decisions and I do watch the games and replays on-line before I post. It's often hard to back up why I think Dyer will have a bigger day than Lattimore or that Garcia will turn the ball over without taking hours to post the relevant statistics and stories. As it stands I devote 1-2 hours for each write-up. Please, please do not take my lack of response as a sign of disrespect or that I am not acknowledging you. I read every reply twice, then three times, then four and continue to check my picks against additional information. I love this forum and I love everyone that is committed to a great dialogue. Thanks for reading!

mstone897 · 10-02-11, 12:35 AM

Originally posted by guy Fawkes

Sorry I didn't get a chance to come back sooner, congrats on taking 'Bama. Had a good time watching that one, Alabama looks like they're a football team that is out there playing hard and having a lot of fun; hard not to have fun with them.

One last thing before I leave the thread, I don't mean to ignore anyone's post or opinion. I thank everyone that came in here to compliment the write up or support my decision. I also appreciate everyone who came into to point out holes in my logic or even outright disagree with me. I don't like to respond directly because these write-ups are just that write-ups. I use a god awful amount of statistics that go into my decisions and I do watch the games and replays on-line before I post. It's often hard to back up why I think Dyer will have a bigger day than Lattimore or that Garcia will turn the ball over without taking hours to post the relevant statistics and stories. Please, please do not take my lack of response as a sign of disrespect or that I am not acknowledging you. I read every reply twice, then three times, then four and continue to check my picks against additional information. I love this forum and I love everyone that is committed to a great dialogue. Thanks for reading!

Good work today!

tokio · 10-02-11, 12:47 AM

Never in doubt