Tracking New System

flyer1179 · 09-28-11, 10:07 PM

USF really probably should have been a no play, but I'm still working out my filters, so I'm going to play it anyway. Until I decide on my final filters there will probably be a large amount of plays. So for now 1 unit plays can be considered spare change plays for all the action junkies out there. Set your units accordingly. Plays will range from 1-5 units, as of now I have no plans to go above 5 units per play, chasing is bad m'kay.

wunwun · 09-28-11, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by flyer1179

Hey everyone, I'm going to use this thread to track a new CFB and NFL system. This system has shown some promise, but it is still fairly new. So, keep that in mind if you do decide to tail any of these picks. This might also turn into great fade material, who knows!

Without any more waiting let's get to the picks!!!

Thursday 9/29
USF -2 @ PITT 1U
HOU @ UTEP +16.5 4U

BOL in whatever you play!!!

Is the pick the team with the points shown?
USF -2 and UTEP +16.5

flyer1179 · 09-28-11, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by wunwun

Is the pick the team with the points shown?
USF -2 and UTEP +16.5

That is correct.

flyer1179 · 09-30-11, 09:48 AM

Plays went 1-1 last night. Luckily the big one was an easy winner. For this thread I will track both the actual record and the effective winning percentage (Units Won/Units Won + Units Lost). This measurement allows us to factor in juice and varying bet sizes, 50% is the break even point using this metric, anything above is positive, while anything below is negative.

Only one game tonight, lucky for us the system likes it a lot. This will be our first 5 unit play of the thread.

Utah St @ BYU -7 5U

I went ahead and bought the hook on this just to be safe and since it only cost me -120. The system actually has them winning by 2 scores. As always, BOL in whatever you play!!!

Actual Record: 1-1 +2.75U
Effective Win Percentage: 76.19%

flyer1179 · 09-30-11, 11:28 AM

Here are Saturday's picks as well.

1 Unit Plays:
Oregon St. @ Arizona St. -18
Northern Illinois -9.5 @ Central Michigan
North Carolina @ East Carolina +7
Northwestern +10 @ Illinois
Penn State -15 @ Indiana
Kentucky +30 @ LSU
Florida Atlantic +8.5 @ UL Lafayette
Marshall @ Louisville -11
New Mexico St. pk @ New Mexico
Kent St. +16 @ Ohio
Rice +14 @ Southern Miss.
UAB +17 @ Troy
Bowling Green @ West Virginia -19

2 Unit Plays:
Texas A&M @ Arkansas +2.5 UPSET ALERT
Washington St. @ Colorado -3 (-120)
Air Force +3.5 @ Navy
Buffalo +28.5 @ Tennessee
Nebraska +10 @ Wisconsin

3 Unit Plays:
Wake Forest @ Boston College -1
Alabama -4 @ Florida
Mississippi @ Fresno St. -3.5
Texas @ Iowa St. +9
Baylor @ Kansas St. +3.5 UPSET ALERT
Minnesota @ Michigan -20.5
Memphis +23.5 @ Middle Tennessee St.
Michigan St. @ Ohio St. -3
Auburn +10 @ South Carolina
Rutgers @ Syracuse -1.5
Arizona +12.5 @ USC
Washington +10 @ Utah
Arkansas St. @ Western Kentucky +12

4 Unit Plays:
Nevada +27 @ Boise St.
Western Michigan @ Connecticut -3
UCLA @ Stanford -21.5
North Texas @ Tulsa -23
Idaho +16 @ Virginia

5 Unit Plays:
Duke @ Florida International -3.5
Mississippi St. +7 @ Georgia UPSET ALERT
Texas Tech -6.5 @ Kansas
Hawaii +4.5 @ Louisiana Tech UPSET ALERT
Cincinnati @ Miami(Ohio) +14.5
Georgia Tech @ NC State +10
SMU @ TCU -12.5

Any games not listed are currently rated as NO PLAY, if any of the lines move into a play range I will update this thread. Again, there are a lot of games that the system likes, so if you do tail please keep your units small for the time being, and use good money management. BOL in whatever you play this weekend!!!

tin8shusd · 09-30-11, 11:54 AM

What is the system centered around, if you don't mind me asking? Don't need everything obviously but just the nuts and bolts.

flyer1179 · 09-30-11, 12:27 PM

The system is based on team rankings, and using those rankings to determine a point spread. How much these numbers differ from the vegas lines determines whether it is a play and how large.

tin8shusd · 09-30-11, 12:34 PM

So there aren't any filters for strength of opponents already faced?

flyer1179 · 09-30-11, 12:44 PM

Strength of opponents is factored into the rankings, as well as margin of victory (capped so blow outs don't skew the numbers too wildly).

flyer1179 · 09-30-11, 10:36 PM

Well, BYU didn't show up til they put their backup in the game. The game finish was great, so at least there was that. On to tomorrow and hope for a better day.

flyer1179 · 10-03-11, 12:53 AM

Saturday wasn't as good as I had hoped. Almost a 50-50 split in wins/losses, losing almost 5.5 units. The way plays are rated clearly needs to be redfined, and some filters need to be added. If all games were flat bet the system would only be down 1.2 units for Saturday. One interesting thing is the system went 3 of 4 on it's upset picks, so this may be something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. Hopefully, next week is better, the system should become more accurate as the season goes along.

Actual Record: 24-23-1 -2.65U
Effective Winning Percentage: 47.51%

flyer1179 · 10-05-11, 04:21 PM

I knew there was something wrong with my overall numbers in the last post... that's what I get for messing with it when I can't sleep. I managed to screw up twice, counted Thursday twice and my spreadsheet had the wrong numbers for effective win percent. Correct numbers are below. And, my spreadsheet is fixed so this shouldn't happen again. *fingers crossed*

Actual Record: 23-22-1 -6.2U
Effective Winning Percentage: 47.62%

flyer1179 · 10-06-11, 03:01 PM

Here are the plays for today and tomorrow.

Thursday 10/6
Western Kentucky +11 3U @ Middle Tennessee St.

Friday 10/7
Boise St. -21 3U @ Fresno St. (anything worse than -21 play only 2 units)

BOL on whatever you play!!!

flyer1179 · 10-07-11, 10:21 PM

Thursday was a nice winner with Western Kentucky winning outright in OT. Tonight's play is looking good, although still another half to play and Boise does like to pull their starters earlier than I would like at times. Gonna post up Saturday's plays below.

1 Unit Plays:
Louisville +13.5 @ North Carolina
Oklahoma -11 @ Texas (neutral site)
Mississippi St. -19.5 @ UAB
Connecticut +19.5 @ West Virginia
Kentucky +21 @ South Carolina
Memphis +20.5 @ Rice
Illinois -14 @ Indiana
Missouri @ Kansas St. +4
Central Michigan +10.5 @ NC St.
Kansas +31 @ Oklahoma St.
Arizona -2 @ Oregon St.
Iowa +4.5 @ Penn St.
Pittsburgh @ Rutgers +7
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas -3.5
Colorado @ Stanford -29
Washington St. +3.5 @ UCLA

2 Unit Plays:
Florida St. -10 @ Wake Forest
Army @ Miami (Ohio) +2 UPSET ALERT
Florida International -17 @ Akron
Boston College @ Clemson -21
Southern Mississippi @ Navy -1
Air Force +14 @ Notre Dame
Vanderbilt @ Alabama -29
Auburn +10 @ Arkansas
Iowa St. +15.5 @ Baylor
Michigan -7 @ Northwestern
Ohio St. +10 @ Nebraska

3 Unit Plays:
Ohio -8.5 @ Buffalo
Marshall +19 @ Central Florida
UNLV @ Nevada -20.5

4 Unit Plays:
Maryland +14.5 @ Georgia Tech
Minnesota +14 @ Purdue
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech +9.5
San Jose St. @ BYU -13.5

5 Unit Plays:
Wyoming +12 @ Utah St.

BOL in whatever you play!!!