sandman week 4

sandman0713 · 09-21-11, 07:47 AM

colorado over 44: one of the games where i have watched both of the teams...colorado twice. i don't see the osu d as being anything close to past seasons...and the buffs can score a little. colorado on the other hand has had real problems on d lately...and this season doesn't look much better. ohio state should move the ball with ease on this d if hawaii and cal can top 30 on it. i also think the osu d might be good for some points. watching colorado with the ball i just felt constantly like they were on the verge of something bad happening...fumble, sack, int, whatever. i do think colorado can score a little to help top the over...but even if they aren't scoring then they are most likely turning the ball over and setting up osu. 44 is pretty low for an ncaa football game anymore...really low when one of the teams has a terrible d and a shaky o on the road in one of the roughest places to play in the country.

sandman0713 · 09-21-11, 03:45 PM

e mich under 44: i can understand the penn st o only scoring 11 against bama...but watching them struggle to get 14 last week against temple has me thinking they are not very good. the penn st d on the other hand looked very solid...even against bama really considering who they were up against. last 2 weeks e mich has scored 14 in a hard fought win at home against alabama state and 3 against that awesome michigan d...lol. the e mich d on the other hand only gave up 31 at michigan and has looked solid otherwise...though we only have howard and ala st to judge from. thought about the eagles +29 but i am thinking they may not score a point...leaving the chance for a 31-0 type cover. think i will just take the under. i will post the final number on this closer to the weekend. i doubt if it moves much but i can shop around at least. anyone see something i don't here?

sandman0713 · 09-21-11, 04:17 PM

duke under 56: may be my pow. just going by what i have seen, and i have watched the tulsa d twice...they are not very good. tulane only scoring 3 against tulsa tells me they are not good. the 49 they scored against uab kinda throws me...but from what i can see the uab d is really bad and the o is worse(setting up the tulane o to score). i would have to say that the duke d compares pretty well with tulsa...who tulane only managed 3 against. duke only scoring 18 points a game...and i think that is pretty honest. i just can't see duke scoring 40 against anyone right now...and i think that is at least what it would take from duke to put this game over 56. dam...3 totals so far and no spreads. really rare for me.

sandman0713 · 09-22-11, 05:18 AM

laffy over 51: ok 4 totals i guess. looks like they just set this one off of last years game and figured not many would touch it to me. fiu can score some points...though their average is skewed from playing pretty good opposition the last 2 weeks. the fiu d has not looked good...even against n texas where they gave up over 300 yards. can't see any point in the last 10 years where laffy has not scored at least 17 on fiu...and that is actually what i thought was the least they would put up this week at first glance. bottom line...watched the laffy d in person and it sucks. fiu will score...a lot. laffy has been good for scoring at least 20 in all 3 games this year. i think they could be rally close to that total by half.

arizona +16: love getting more than 2 tds with zona at home here. stoops job may be on the line here...again. all may seem well with oregon after they blew up nevada kind of and mizzou st...they still got all the same problems that were exposed against lsu. problems running the ball because they have nobody capable of stretching the field and backing the d off. zona had problems against stanford and okie state...both with really solid running games. i look for zona to come out amped up and just pounce on all that short stuff oregon lives on. i know and love my pac 10 football...and this is just the way i feel about it. i think it will be a great game regardless of how it looks on paper.

oklahoma -21: wasn't gonna play this game at all...was worried about an oklahoma letdown after the fsu win. all the crazy trash talk by the mizzou players got me interested though...lol. mizzou just has that kind of o\qb that survives on the running game and short passes. ou is way too fast for that shit on d and will eat it up like they always do against teams that can't stretch the field. i think most would agree that ou can pretty much pick what number they win by. with some of the disrefectful stuff that has came out from mizzou players, along with the loss at mizzou last year, i think they choose a rather large number. largest play again this week.

ok i am getting sleepy...so i will just save the meaningless little writeups for these last few. nobody looks at this thread anyways...lol.

w virginia +6
nebraska -23
fresno -3
n mexico st +11

sandman0713 · 09-22-11, 05:21 AM

oh yeah...final number on cinci.

-7.5 and under 60.5

sandman0713 · 09-22-11, 05:28 AM

ok and the penn st under i did get at 44 final...didn't move at all. peace and gl this weekend all.

spladle08 · 09-22-11, 10:10 AM

I read all of them... new to the forums but been betting heavy using a little info from everyone... been working well. Thanks for taking the time to write all this

sandman0713 · 09-22-11, 05:22 PM

well thank you then man for posting that. there seem to be some really good people here that are pretty good at this...just gotta sort through the other bs to find them. gl man.

sandman0713 · 09-22-11, 11:01 PM

what a game i guess...i actually went to sleep for a while thinking i was doomed to another split. that is gambling though. several times so far this year i felt like i was on the right side but lost anyway. nice to have it work the other way once in a while...being on the obvious wrong side yet winning. gn all...hope nobody took it too hard.

12-8 overall now

blackeyeshamus · 09-22-11, 11:50 PM

great work, sandman!
thanks for the leans, and
good luck on saturday!

sandman0713 · 09-23-11, 12:22 AM

ty sir...and gl to you too. actually gonna add one more. noticed florida state was actually getting 3 now several places. called my local guy and he went ahead and gave it to me at +3 so...

fsu +3: watched part of the oklahoma\fsu game last night on dvr as i was trying to go to sleep. had so many good games on that night that i didn't even watch but maybe half of that game. the fsu d is really good...and really fast. they actually did a really good job against oklahoma. the o also looked just as good, or maybe a little better, when the backup qb came in. what actually got me thinking about it though was a few clemson highlights they just showed against the pathetic auburn d...like hanging 5 tds on that d makes you a great o. they scored 43 on troy and 35 on wofford...i would say with the talent on the fsu d you would have to expect maybe half of that...or less. so let's say they manage 20...or 24 to be nice against the fsu d. wofford scored 27 on the clemson d and troy 19...they are not all that. i will take fsu and the 6 free points from the line moving...and i don't really care if the qb plays or not.

sandman0713 · 09-24-11, 02:19 AM

what a crappy game that was...very lucky to even get a split. there was a ton of bickering in here about this game. heard some talking about the talent and super speed of ucf...others about byu. i think we were all wrong from what i watched...they both suck. anyways...i will take a split and move on to saturday. hope i don't get smashed...way more than i usually like to bet. 13-9 overall so far.

colorado over 44
penn st under 44
duke under 56
laffy over 51
zona +16
oklahoma -21
w virginia +6...second thoughts but i already bet it.
nebraska -23
fresno -3
n mex state +11
florida state +3

gl all.

sandman0713 · 09-24-11, 06:11 AM

ok...who the fu*^ is pounding the penn state over to the tune of 2.5 points? drives me crazy. first because i am wondering what they see that i didn't that would make this anything but a pretty easy under...and second because i didn't get it at 46.5 instead of 44...lol.

sandman0713 · 09-24-11, 06:19 AM

ok i gotta add one more...though i have too many already. michigan keeps moving and i may have to bite. yeah i know sdsu is for real. this is michigan in the big house though. all kinds of excitement going around there i am sure after being down for a minute...i don't think they look past this game for even a minute. anyways...too much value to pass up in a game i felt was just about right when it opened.

michigan -7.5

sandman0713 · 09-24-11, 06:24 AM

dam...i am betting like half the board...lol. if i have a bad day i am gonna have to re-up my book monday, and have my local guy beating down the door for his 50 bucks tuesday...lol. gotta get off here and quit looking at spreads be4 i bet something else. gl all.

spladle08 · 09-24-11, 10:40 AM

Ha... good luck... I too have way to many bets in play... I jumped on that Michigan pick with you.. I think it may be close for a half... but too much offense, 35-24 or something like that should be a decent game

sandman0713 · 09-24-11, 06:47 PM

looking like 5-2 going into the night games with laffy still pending...if fresno can manage a 17 point lead that is. ostate boys hung on for a tough win making this a good day all around. was gonna go talk some smack to all the people i been bickering all week with about that game...screw it though. very good game that could have went either way. a+m fans are pretty classy when they come to stillwater in my experience...so i will be as well. no gloating.

sandman0713 · 09-25-11, 02:09 AM

well...the night games sucked. 7-5 overall after starting 6-2. oh well...that is what usually happens when you bet so many games. back to about 5 or 6 next week for me. 20-14 overall now in ncaa football...guess my quest for 75% is not going so well...lol. actually down for the day too because i was pretty big on oklahoma. should have checked the injury report there...not that it would have mattered. i always check it for teams i am betting...but i know the okie teams so well that i usually don't check. today was a good day as a fan for me though with my pokes winning. i really enjoyed that game just as a great game with no money on it...and that rarely happens for me anymore. kind of made me think about sitting out next year and just enjoying football. seems like it gets to the point where we gotta have money on it or it is no fun...kinda sad. peace and gl tomm all if u bet the big boys.

20-14 overall for like 58%...blah