Machine Report: LSU at Miss State

[BamaBill67]

Way to go Machine !!! LSU homers have always tickled me on SBR .

[BernardMadoff]

MSU will load the box on those " wonderful " ( ) LSU tailbacks and force J Lee to beat them on the road . This line has been at 3 - 3.5 all week with this " powerhouse " looming to walk in Starksville and beat the hell out of poor MSU ...... I am with Machine MSU + 3.5 ..... Tell me LSU backers , why hasnt this line gotten bigger with all the money on LSU ? I will say this , if u are dead set on LSU you better bet the ml .

Think LSU is too physical for State.

[Machine Choice]

Think whatever you want, but I need to straighten a few things up.



Jarrett Lee in 2008: 249 ATT/16 INT's--------1 INT/ 16 attempts. You're right, that is horrific
Jarrett Lee from 09-present: 161 ATT/ 2 INT's---------1 INT/ 80 attempts. Quite a difference don't you think?



Michael Dyer Career: 1300 yards/214 attempts and 9 TD's---6.07 yds/carry
LSU
Michael Ford Career: 436 yards/72 attempts and 7 TD's---6.05 yds/carry
Spencer Ware Career: 294 yards/56 attempts and 4 TD's---5.25 yds/carry ***2010 Cotton Bowl:102/10 attempts--10.2 yds/carry vs. #30 Rushing Defense Team.

You're right, we don't have a running back of similar caliber, WE HAVE 2!



2010 LSU D---- 19 Interceptions (4 by Peterson) #13 in the Nation
20 Forced Fumbles #1 in the Nation I somehow doubt this was all "LUCK"


Get the facts before you steer people the wrong way

I'm glad you mention the Peterson interceptions since he is no longer on the team!

Also, your "facts" are wrong!

Do yourself a favor. Go buy a college preveiw magazine, turn to the LSU page and check out the digits on the "superstar" LSU Backs that return from 2010:

Michael Ford: 5.4 ypc on a whopping 45 ATTEMPTS (I don't care what he did against Northwestern State!)
Spencer Ware: 7.3 ypc on only 24 carries (Unproven back, and again I don't care what he did against Northwestern State or Oregon with only 4 returning defensive starters)

Now look at Michael Dyer: 6.0 ypc on 182 attempts.

Now look at Miss State's Vick Ballard: 5.2 ypc on 186 attempts and 19 TD's!! An every down, 215-lb back that will beat your brains in.

As far as Jarrett Lee, he played mop-up duty in 2009 and 2010, put up some stats in ONE GAME vs a horrible Tennesse defense. In his only full season he threw 16 INTs against only 14 TD's.

Son, if you want to challenge me you better do your homework!!

[sovann80]

maybe Machine went to MSU?

great write up and get point of views from both sides. it's betting so go with your gut instinct and best of luck!

[sovann80]

maybe Machine went to MSU?

great write up and get point of views from both sides. it's betting so go with your gut instinct and best of luck!

[MoneyLineDawg]

I'm gunna go with UGA? Just a guess

[BamaBill67]

Once again ! The line was at 3 on Monday and it is 3.5 NOW !!! Money is on LSU with everyone POSITIVE LSU will win ..... WHAT IS THE DEAL ?

[Machine Choice]

I didn't go to MSU. I didn't go to LSU. I didn't go to Georgia.

LSU's running backs may turn out to be dynamic, but this year they do not have alot of experience. That's my only point.

[Machine Choice]

For ANYONE to put LSU's two young running backs on a par with Michael Dyer -- or Vick Ballard for that matter! -- is absolutely ******* ridiculous!

[Thurgood]

Machine, please don't reveal your SEC alma mater. People on these boards will think you are biased. Great research BTW!

[LSUtiger]

Peterson is no longer on the team!

No shit he's not on the team, I'm saying the guys who had the majority still are you retard!

Also, your "facts" are wrong!]Do yourself a favor. Go buy a college preveiw magazine, turn to the LSU page and check out the digits on the "superstar" LSU Backs that return from 2010:

Michael Ford: 5.4 ypc on a whopping 45 ATTEMPTS (I don't care what he did against Northwestern State!)

Umm check your numbers again....?? 268/45=6. Welcome back to 3rd grade long division!

Spencer Ware (Unproven back, and again I don't care what he did against Northwestern State or Oregon with only 4 returning defensive starters)

Unproven back? ok, I'll just post his numbers at the end of the season so he can be counted as a proven back in your world.

Now look at Michael Dyer: 6.0 ypc on 182 attempts.

Yeah, well he was the starter last year, ware and ford weren't.... Ridley was (1208 yds/260 attempts) and they're both as talented as him.

Now look at Miss State's Vick Ballard: 5.2 ypc on 186 attempts and 19 TD's!! An every down, 215-lb back that will beat your brains in.

Again, Ridley was the started....4.6 ypc and 15 TD's

As far as Jarrett Lee, he played mop-up duty in 2009 and 2010, put up some stats in ONE GAME vs a hotrrible Tennesse defense. In his only full season he threw 16 INTs against only 14 TD's.

It 3 years ago...He was RS Freshman who was supposed to be 4th string in 2008! He is a COMPLETELY different player now. Call it mop up duty, but he was the reason we beat Bama, Tennessee, and Florida.

Son, if you want to challenge me you better do your homework!!

Oh I did, just admit it already..you got owned

[Machine Choice]

No shit he's not on the team, I'm saying the guys who had the majority still are you retard!




Umm check your numbers again....?? 268/45=6. Welcome back to 3rd grade long division!



Unproven back? ok, I'll just post his numbers at the end of the season so he can be counted as a proven back in your world.


Yeah, well he was the starter last year, ware and ford weren't.... Ridley was (1208 yds/260 attempts) and they're both as talented as him.



Again, Ridley was the started....4.6 ypc and 15 TD's




It 3 years ago...He was RS Freshman who was supposed to be 4th string in 2008! He is a COMPLETELY different player now. Call it mop up duty, but he was the reason we beat Bama, Tennessee, and Florida.


Oh I did, just admit it already..you got owned

"We" beat Tennesse, Bama, Florida?

Comical.

Wipe the pixie dust out of your eyes until your two "superstar" running backs actually take on an SEC defense on the road. You should know that by now.

[Brian891]

Pretty sure LSUtiger mentioned peterson's ints and the total ints and fumbles as proof that peterson wasnt the entire defense. team had 15 ints even without peterson's numbers was his point. of course this fails to take into consideration that he shut down entire side of field and forced teams to throw elsewhere. ballard is a great back, but lsu took 2 heisman favs in james and thomas and absolutely neutralized them. dont sell tigers' d short. I like lsu, but this is definitely a tricky spot. miles is not exactly known for having his guys ready to play on the road. and even when lsu won their national titles, they lost games in the sec on the road. seems like a good spot to lay off and just enjoy the game.

[LSUtiger]

"We" beat Tennesse, Bama, Florida?

Well, I am part of the LSU student body...so yes, WE...as in LSU.

[Machine Choice]

Dude's avatar says it all. He can't look at the game objectively, nor anyone else. Which is fine. I hope the line keeps rising.

[Urbanwildlife]

Looks like the posters have you a little annoyed Machine Choice. Thin skin when others do not agree with you?

[LSUtiger]

He can't look at the game objectively

When did I ever give my view on the game or remotely state any kind of prediction?
All I did was prove you wrong with numbers. Your last two posts were pretty meaningless. Someone is just having a little trouble saying he's wrong.

[Machine Choice]

When did I ever give my view on the game or remotely state any kind of prediction?
All I did was prove you wrong with numbers. Your last two posts were pretty meaningless. Someone is just having a little trouble saying he's wrong.

Every stat I have posted is in print, and reflects 2010 season numbers. You want to post rushing numbers for LSU against Oregon's weak defense (again, 4 returning starters) and Northwestern State. Feel free. Post away. Tell me how great they are.

[Thurgood]

Well, I am part of the LSU student body...so yes, WE...as in LSU.

Not sure if that is something to be proud of... My grandma could get into LSU with her 3rd grade education.

Obviously you are new to SBR but show a little respect before getting all negative.

[LSUtiger]

Machine, your numbers are wrong. Simple as that. We'll just see how the game plays out. I didn't intend for my posts to come off as an attack.

Thurgood, STFU...you joined a month ago and just pretty much called me stupid for going to LSU, so don't tell me to "show a little respect".

[luckythansmart]

Both sides have their opinion on how the game will be played and the outcome of the game.
Only one side will be right at the end of the game.
This is just like the NFL NE/Mia game on Monday.
All the people that were on NE were called squares by the sharps who were on Mia.
Both side gave their reasons they were right. The sharps all said the same thing the sharps are saying now "the line is 7 and if NE was that good it should be 10 or more" "the line is 3 and if LSU is that good it should be 6 or more" "its a trap game, etc, etc, etc". Guess what, only one side was right.
This is the same. Give your reasons, put up your money, watch the game, curse the refs call if it doesn't go your way, and pray your OPINION was right all night long. I had my money on NE and did what I just said and was happy that I was right. No need to debate cause the game will be settled on the field tomorrow (late tonight). I like LSU and I gave my reasons/opinion on another thread. I could be right or I could be wrong but I hope I am right. Good luck to everyone and especially to me LOL.

[Machine Choice]

Machine, your numbers are wrong. Simple as that

Okay, I'll say it again. Anyone reading this can go look for themselves on the internet.

These are the stats from 2010:

Michael Ford: 45 rush attempts, 5.4 ypc, 3 TD's
Spencer Ware: 24 attempts, 7.3 ypc, 1 TD

And neither of them broke 100 yards even against Oregon's shitty rush defense.

Now let's look at Mississippi State's Vick Ballard from 2010:

186 attempts, 5.2 ypc, 19 TD's

vs Auburn last week: 134 yards 6.4 ypc

[Machine Choice]

And I agree, none of this matters. It will be settled on the field tomorrow.

[LSUtiger]

Agree, can't wait til tomorrow. I guess the numbers are wrong in one of our sources?

[Machine Choice]

I guess the numbers are wrong in one of our sources?

Here you go:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/players/189872

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/players/179004

[LSUtiger]

P.S. Why are you posting Ballard's numbers vs. Auburn? Auburn ranked 9th in the SEC in total defense last year and lost their best D-lineman. Hell, even UTAH STATE picked 227 yards on the ground in their home opener this year. To add to that, Auburn rushed for 235 yards vs. MSU last weekend, which is sad because Utah st. held Auburn to 78 yards. I'm just curious as to why you think Ballard's #'s vs. Auburn shows any indication on how well he'll run against LSU. LSU held Oregon to 95 rushing yards. Keep in mind Oregon is a team that averaged 287 yards/game in 2010 and did not lose their mobile QB or their 2 starting RB's.

p.s.s http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/player/...476/index.html

[Machine Choice]

P.S. Why are you posting Ballard's numbers vs. Auburn? Auburn ranked 9th in the SEC in total defense last year and lost their best D-lineman. Hell, even UTAH STATE picked 227 yards on the ground in their home opener this year. To add to that, Auburn rushed for 235 yards vs. MSU last weekend, which is sad because Utah st. held Auburn to 78 yards. I'm just curious as to why you think Ballard's #'s vs. Auburn shows any indication on how well he'll run against LSU. LSU held Oregon to 95 rushing yards. Keep in mind Oregon is a team that averaged 287 yards/game in 2010 and did not lose their mobile QB or their 2 starting RB's.

Hey look, I'm not saying Miss State is a lock. It's going to be a dogfight. I just think MSU will be able to keep it wthin four points. I'm pretty sure the line is going to hit +4 at my book before kickoff. Some books already have it at +4.5. If it doesn't get to +4, I'll play +3.5

[pbanks33]

No one has mentioned coaching......I like LSU. good luck fellas!

[Machine Choice]

No one has mentioned coaching......I like LSU. good luck fellas!

You better hope the Mad Hatter doesn't have to manage the game clock at the end of the game, or LSU backers are fukked

[Urbanwildlife]

lol

[mstone897]

You better hope the Mad Hatter doesn't have to manage the game clock at the end of the game, or LSU backers are fukked

THIS. Thursday night home dog should keep it close enough that Les will do something dumb late to make it a game.

[VTranX]

i always enjoy reading ur posts...good stuff thanks

[CBASS]

NCAAF/NFL Machine Plays: 9-4

I graduated from an SEC school and let me tell you that when two SEC teams match up, especially from the same side of the conference, you can throw out 60% of the stats cause they don't mean a thing. You basically have the equivalent of two cousins who hate each other scrapping in the back yard at a family reunion.

Case in Point: 2009 LSU at Miss St. Miss State's first year under Dan Mullen. MSU had only 4 starters return on defense, while LSU had 14 returning starters (7 on offense incl the QB, 7 on defense and were ranked #6). What happened? MSU nearly won the game at home, but 4 turnovers cost them the victory.

Let's look at last year's matchup: LSU won 29-7, but look a little deeper. Chris Relf did not play the 2H, State only trailed 12-7 in the 3Q, and State threw five interceptions, 2 of which were caught by a guy who is now gone (Patrick Peterson). LSU had to rely on 5 field goals (by a kicker who is now gone) and a bunch of turnovers to win that game in Baton Rouge.

Now, for this year's game (including injuries and suspensions) LSU returns 6 starters on offense and 7 on defense, while State returns 9 on offense (incl the QB) and 6 on defense. LSU has to travel to Starkville on a Thurs night where the fans will be ringing those cowbells until Jarrett Lee won't be able to think straight, and they'll be throwing whiskey bottles at the LSU sideline (I've seen this many times!). Miss State got caught in a look-ahead spot last week vs Auburn. They saw that Auburn barely beat Utah State, so they started looking ahead to their home game vs LSU and got stunned on the road. Don't count on that happening now! Michael Dyer carved up MSU, but LSU does not have a running back of similar caliber. And even if they did, don't think for a second that MSU is not going to game-plan the rush defense into oblivion.

Miss State is going to put every ounce of blood, sweat, preparation and pain that they can muster into this Starkville Superbowl. They've lost 11 straight to LSU, and this is their best shot. Next week Miss State has Louisiana Tech. LSU has West Virginia on the road. Now who is in the look-ahead spot?

Jarrett Lee is gimpy, and even at full strength he is not an accurate passer. Lee threw 16 INT's as a freshman, did not play much in 2009-2010. You can BANK -- BANK -- on Lee throwing at least 2 INTS in the chaotic environment he is going to face. He did not play great against a weak Oregon defense that only returned four defensive starters for that game, and were without their leading defensive player. LSU had to rely on three Oregon turnovers in Oregon's own end of the field to snatch that victory. You cannot assume that they will be that lucky vs Miss State.

Miss State has the talent to win this game outright, both on offense and defense, and proved it last year by pasting Michigan 52-14 in the Gator Bowl. Now they return their QB, all three top receivers, their leading running back (the beastly Vick Ballard who ran all over Auburn); and they return 3 of their top 5 tacklers from last year and their all-american candidate punt returner Chad Bumphis.

Last year at home Miss State lost by only 3 to the national champions (Auburn), destroyed Georgia, beat Kentucky, and lost to #13 Arkansas in OT. I see a pattern: they play ******* gangbusters at home! On the road, LSU barely beat a bad Florida team, lost to Auburn, and lost to Arkansas. And now LSU is without their 2010 QB, without their 2nd-leading receiver, and without an OL for this game.

In this SEC West grudge match, I'll take the points.

MISSISSIPPI STATE +3.5*

*wait 'til game time and you may get +4 or +4.5

A) SEC teams NEVER overlook an upcoming SEC opponent. Period.
B) Everyone is taking shots at the LSU homers on this thread, but this entire writeup HAS TO BE written by a Miss. St. homer.
C) Since when has Miss. St. ever been an intimidating place to play at? Lol. Fear the cowbells? I don't think so.
D) Notice how much credit was given to State for losing AT HOME to National Champions Auburn by 3, but LSU lost by just a td ON THE ROAD to Auburn (which is very respectable) and it was downplayed. Lol.


Don't get upset Machine, because I think you are one of the better posters on here. I just happen to disagree with this pick. Hopefully, you are a diplomat and we can agree to disagree. BOL this weekend buddy!

[Pin Fish]

Question..who do you think would win and by what score Oregon or Utah State...............when Auburn gets clubbed by Clemson...........you will know why LSU pounded /miss State..................

[Machine Choice]

A) SEC teams NEVER overlook an upcoming SEC opponent. Period.
B) Everyone is taking shots at the LSU homers on this thread, but this entire writeup HAS TO BE written by a Miss. St. homer.

Yeah, I'm an MSU homer. Get real. I've been posting here for three years now, you know better. I could give a shit about who wins unless I'm backing them. Sports is meaningless to me unless money is involved. Otherwise, it's a waste of life. It has no point.

And as far as SEC teams not overlooking each other...LOL. Tell that to LSU! Last year they almost lost to Tennessee at home, the same Tennesse that finished 6-7 and needed overtime to beat UAB.