ALL IN play. lock of the season. TCU -3.5

TWEETS · 09-02-11, 11:58 AM

if you liked it so much, i would have waited to see if it went to-3, if it goes to -4 your not much worse than 3.5

GemSportsPicks · 09-02-11, 12:00 PM

Be careful here, this line has dropped over 3 points... There is probably a very good reason for it doing so.

The Bet Master · 09-02-11, 12:02 PM

Yes all in on a Friday game in the opening week. What a great bet!

biggamerife21 · 09-02-11, 12:03 PM

heres a note i wrote to myself 3 months ago on this game and saved...

sept 2nd - tcu at baylor- tcu's defense is still legit and baylors quarterack makes horible decisions, tcu giving under 10 is the way to go right now.

needless to say i was pleased with the line, so ...IM ALL IN

biggamerife21 · 09-02-11, 12:04 PM

to bad i only have 337

Aussiecapper101 · 09-02-11, 12:04 PM

Lol this is a big statement, GL

BigDofBA · 09-02-11, 12:38 PM

I was TCU but now I'm secon guessing it. This guy lose just about all of his plays.

+Even · 09-02-11, 12:55 PM

It's day two of college football and someone is all-in PRICELESS HAHA. I'm not sure how you could go all in with a road favorite that lost their starting QB and half their starting defense, going up against a team that is bringing back their main starters and should be pretty decent. I'd say GL but I'm on Baylor +3.5 although I'm not all in and am only playing it because it's the only game on the board

TodaysLocks · 09-02-11, 12:58 PM

Normally, I laugh at these threads, but my thread and system has the same play.

There is no such thing as a *lock*, but this is the closest thing you will ever see so early in a season.

This line should be closer to -13 to -17.

+Even · 09-02-11, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Normally, I laugh at these threads, but my thread and system has the same play.

There is no such thing as a *lock*, but this is the closest thing you will ever see so early in a season.

This line should be closer to -13 to -17.

mwgriffin · 09-02-11, 01:04 PM

with ya!

Grosshhit · 09-02-11, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Normally, I laugh at these threads, but my thread and system has the same play.

There is no such thing as a *lock*, but this is the closest thing you will ever see so early in a season.

This line should be closer to -13 to -17.

Thats a helluva stretch. The line is right with Baylor at home in this one. I might just take Baylor because of the "L" word being used. A lot of reverse line movement in this game as well.

TodaysLocks · 09-02-11, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by +Even

I'm so glad you posted. Certainly you will be here around 1130pm EST to face the music, right?

Darkside Magick · 09-02-11, 01:11 PM

this line is so off ... should be -15 TCU!!!!!!!

taking ML and -3.5....THIS WIN EASY!!!!

+Even · 09-02-11, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

I'm so glad you posted. Certainly you will be here around 1130pm EST to face the music, right?

haha no it's a friday night loser I'll be out. But you're saying this is as close to a lock as possible, and saying they should be double digit favorites is just retarted

TodaysLocks · 09-02-11, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by Grosshhit

Thats a helluva stretch. The line is right with Baylor at home in this one. I might just take Baylor because of the "L" word being used. A lot of reverse line movement in this game as well.

We will respectfully disagree. Not saying YOU in particular, but Vegas wants everyone jumping on Baylor here.

This game will not be close...

TodaysLocks · 09-02-11, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by +Even

haha no it's a friday night loser I'll be out. But you're saying this is as close to a lock as possible, and saying they should be double digit favorites is just retarted

Funny you are showing your youth. Makes sense now. I'm a grown man with a family, so will be home enjoying the evening.

You are so *cool* because you're going out!

I understand why you don't believe me now: youth and inexperience.

Have a good night out kiddo, I'll say "I told you so" in the morning.

Darkside Magick · 09-02-11, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

We will respectfully disagree. Not saying YOU in particular, but Vegas wants everyone jumping on Baylor here.

This game will not be close...

+Even · 09-02-11, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

We will respectfully disagree. Not saying YOU in particular, but Vegas wants everyone jumping on Baylor here.

This game will not be close...

The whole world is on TCU....if Vegas wanted people to jump on Baylor then TCU would be much bigger favorites....it's becoming clear that you have no idea what you're talking about

+Even · 09-02-11, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Funny you are showing your youth. Makes sense now. I'm a grown man with a family, so will be home enjoying the evening.

You are so *cool* because you're going out!

I understand why you don't believe me now: youth and inexperience.

Have a good night out kiddo, I'll say "I told you so" in the morning.

Save the money you're going to lose tonight and put it in you're kids college fund because you don't know how vegas works. Now you're play can win, but your reasoning for this is ass backwards

+Even · 09-02-11, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Funny you are showing your youth. Makes sense now. I'm a grown man with a family, so will be home enjoying the evening.

You are so *cool* because you're going out!

I understand why you don't believe me now: youth and inexperience.

Have a good night out kiddo, I'll say "I told you so" in the morning.

Well my youth and inexperience got me 5-0 last night on opening night.....

bigsmitty · 09-02-11, 01:26 PM

All in is a ridiculous statement on opening day. Either the power rankings aren't worth the paper they're printed on or TCU has a reasonable likelihood of winning in my opinion. Good luck all.

TodaysLocks · 09-02-11, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by +Even

Save the money you're going to lose tonight and put it in you're kids college fund because you don't know how vegas works. Now you're play can win, but your reasoning for this is ass backwards

Listen man, there are millions of people who think like that, and that is fine because it is usually true. But let me explain to you something since you need the assistance.

This is only primetime game tonight, and Vegas knows that. You look at the game as a "tout" and it looks like it will be a close one..right?

So line starts dropping, and you see all these "pros" in the forum: "why is line dropping?? all the sharps are on Baylor. big money must be coming on Baylor!!"

So psychologically what happens, lots of money gets put on Baylor because of theory. Keep in mind again, this is the only game most people are wagering on tonight. That is why it is an exception.

Line will slowly creep back up most likely, and even if it doesnt, Vegas got what they wanted -- people bit on the RLM in a primetime game and bet Baylor to even the money out a little bit more.

Now, if TCU wins they aren't paying out the ass, because they reeled in all these line hawks.

Once again, if this is a 330 Sat game, none of this applies.

Now with your theory, if vegas made TCU -13.5 or something, then people start thinking "maybe baylor isn't that good, this is still TCU, blah blah." Once again, a 330 game, and people see value -- not primetime. Too much analysis for one game.

So they make the line close, so people take Baylor serious, start thinking "hey! i must be missing out on something here. baylor is good!" and then TCU takes care of business and everyone goes on as normal.

Dont gotta believe it if you dont want to, thats experience though.

Good luck tonight.

Darkside Magick · 09-02-11, 01:45 PM

also when the game open at -10 the so called pros was all on it.. knowing the line should have been -15. so what they do, exactly like todayslocks said.. they rlm this to even out the cash!!!!

saints1856 · 09-02-11, 01:48 PM

Nice insight man. Hopefully you're right

+Even · 09-02-11, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by TodaysLocks

Listen man, there are millions of people who think like that, and that is fine because it is usually true. But let me explain to you something since you need the assistance.

This is only primetime game tonight, and Vegas knows that. You look at the game as a "tout" and it looks like it will be a close one..right?

So line starts dropping, and you see all these "pros" in the forum: "why is line dropping?? all the sharps are on Baylor. big money must be coming on Baylor!!"

So psychologically what happens, lots of money gets put on Baylor because of theory. Keep in mind again, this is the only game most people are wagering on tonight. That is why it is an exception.

Line will slowly creep back up most likely, and even if it doesnt, Vegas got what they wanted -- people bit on the RLM in a primetime game and bet Baylor to even the money out a little bit more.

Now, if TCU wins they aren't paying out the ass, because they reeled in all these line hawks.

Once again, if this is a 330 Sat game, none of this applies.

Now with your theory, if vegas made TCU -13.5 or something, then people start thinking "maybe baylor isn't that good, this is still TCU, blah blah." Once again, a 330 game, and people see value -- not primetime. Too much analysis for one game.

So they make the line close, so people take Baylor serious, start thinking "hey! i must be missing out on something here. baylor is good!" and then TCU takes care of business and everyone goes on as normal.

Dont gotta believe it if you dont want to, thats experience though.

Good luck tonight.

That's a reasonable theory, like I've said TCU can win big i have no clue, they've got a completely different team this year. I don't feel great on either side but since it's the only game I'm going with Baylor because they should be better than last year and TCU should be worse, and they are at home in primetime as a dog. All I'm saying is statements like this is a lock, or I'm going all in are completely silly, and not something someone who is so experienced would ever say

TodaysLocks · 09-02-11, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by +Even

That's a reasonable theory, like I've said TCU can win big i have no clue, they've got a completely different team this year. I don't feel great on either side but since it's the only game I'm going with Baylor because they should be better than last year and TCU should be worse, and they are at home in primetime as a dog. All I'm saying is statements like this is a lock, or I'm going all in are completely silly, and not something someone who is so experienced would ever say

Agreed man. I hate message board bickering. Good luck for real tonight, and enjoy your Friday. Cya.

+Even · 09-02-11, 01:56 PM

Thanks, same to you.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-02-11, 01:59 PM

I'm on TCU moneyline. This is my Alma Mater. Couple of things that stick out to me ... better defensive mind is in purple. Yes, TCU has new faces on D and O, but you give Gary Patterson all offseason to game plan for Robert Griffin and I like my chances. They did a great job on him last year and while I expect he will do better, I think TCU's defensive scheme will be the difference today. I think Patterson is one of the best motivators in the game, if not the best and TCU gets to play the lack of respect card again this season and today his defense is going to be with the mindset that we are going to shut down a Heisman Trophy hopeful. I think it won't be a blowout, but so long as TCU runs the ball to keep Pachall from having to do too much early, I think they win in the end by a TD or so.

Greyraptor · 09-02-11, 02:13 PM

GL tonight. I am not "all in", but I am on TCU for sure.

SprtsCapnGuru · 09-02-11, 02:57 PM

My play is on the over @ 53......TCU should run it up on Baylor's D, but Baylor should find a way to put up 21-24....I see TCU winning by 10 or more.

Greyraptor · 09-02-11, 03:12 PM

I couldn't agree with you more. I have the over as well at 53. GL

thetrinity · 09-02-11, 04:19 PM

lol at the line being 13 15 17 etc. personally i dont really trust this baylor team who seemed to get worse as the year went on last year. tcu so depleted IMO though. im gonna sit out and root for tcu and have air force next week against them for sure.

qsilver335 · 09-02-11, 04:21 PM

TCU is not the same team they were last year, be very careful here. Good luck!