Machine Plays: 1-0
Last night the season got started with a miraculous comeback and cover. If you gave up on it, don't do that again. Crazy shit happens every week. And now we move on...
The line is TCU-3.5 and TCU won last year at home 45-10. Shifting that home field advantage to Baylor, we get a re-calibrated score of 42-13. So if you're backing Baylor at +3.5, you believe that Baylor has closed a 25-point gap in talent and ability in the span of one year. Now I am going to explain why that is not the case.
BU QB Robert Griffin started last year's game as a three-year starter and yet was still only able to go 16-of-28 passing for 164 yards and ran 14 times for only 21 yards. He was sacked 3 times. His victimizers are back for TCU: all-American cadidate Tank Carder at LB, and leading tackler Tanner Brock. Although TCU only returns five on defense, their LB unit is ranked sixth in the country in pre-season polls and they are starting only one freshman on defense, and he projects to be a super-stud (SS Sam Carter). In other words, TCU will not have a drop-off in defense. Gary Patterson doesn't let that happen. In 2009 TCU returned only FOUR starters on defense and yet they allowed only 12.8 ppg! Added to this is the fact that Baylor lost their all-Big 12 RB Jay Finley.
On offense, sure, TCU's Dalton is gone, but it wasn't Dalton who ripped Baylor to pieces last year to the tune of 292 yards rushing! It was TCU's Ed Wesley and Matthew Tucker, and they are both back. And now Baylor has lost their 5 leading tacklers from LY! And they have a new defensive coordinator, first year transitions are usually bad. Ed Wesley is going to absolutely vaporize Baylor's defense. The new TCU QB Pachall is going to have to simply snap, turn, and hand...and then go have a beer.
These schools are only 90 miles apart, so this isn't much of a "road game" for TCU, and I expect them to bring the house since they are now officially on their way to BCS status (Big East next year) and do not want to look like the Conf USA team that they used to be. Patterson has recruited an empire at TCU and that will be in full effect tonight. Could Baylor cover? I think Griffin will connect with his talented receiving corps on some long passes, but ultimately TCU will rush the ball enough to keep him on the sidelines. In 2007 these teams met with TCU returning only 4 starters on offense. The result: a 27-0 win for TCU in Baylor's house. That's Gary Patterson's coaching in action. You don't change that year to year. That stays.
TCU -3.5
Last night the season got started with a miraculous comeback and cover. If you gave up on it, don't do that again. Crazy shit happens every week. And now we move on...
The line is TCU-3.5 and TCU won last year at home 45-10. Shifting that home field advantage to Baylor, we get a re-calibrated score of 42-13. So if you're backing Baylor at +3.5, you believe that Baylor has closed a 25-point gap in talent and ability in the span of one year. Now I am going to explain why that is not the case.
BU QB Robert Griffin started last year's game as a three-year starter and yet was still only able to go 16-of-28 passing for 164 yards and ran 14 times for only 21 yards. He was sacked 3 times. His victimizers are back for TCU: all-American cadidate Tank Carder at LB, and leading tackler Tanner Brock. Although TCU only returns five on defense, their LB unit is ranked sixth in the country in pre-season polls and they are starting only one freshman on defense, and he projects to be a super-stud (SS Sam Carter). In other words, TCU will not have a drop-off in defense. Gary Patterson doesn't let that happen. In 2009 TCU returned only FOUR starters on defense and yet they allowed only 12.8 ppg! Added to this is the fact that Baylor lost their all-Big 12 RB Jay Finley.
On offense, sure, TCU's Dalton is gone, but it wasn't Dalton who ripped Baylor to pieces last year to the tune of 292 yards rushing! It was TCU's Ed Wesley and Matthew Tucker, and they are both back. And now Baylor has lost their 5 leading tacklers from LY! And they have a new defensive coordinator, first year transitions are usually bad. Ed Wesley is going to absolutely vaporize Baylor's defense. The new TCU QB Pachall is going to have to simply snap, turn, and hand...and then go have a beer.
These schools are only 90 miles apart, so this isn't much of a "road game" for TCU, and I expect them to bring the house since they are now officially on their way to BCS status (Big East next year) and do not want to look like the Conf USA team that they used to be. Patterson has recruited an empire at TCU and that will be in full effect tonight. Could Baylor cover? I think Griffin will connect with his talented receiving corps on some long passes, but ultimately TCU will rush the ball enough to keep him on the sidelines. In 2007 these teams met with TCU returning only 4 starters on offense. The result: a 27-0 win for TCU in Baylor's house. That's Gary Patterson's coaching in action. You don't change that year to year. That stays.
TCU -3.5
