on3's CFB 2011 season

[knugen]

aahh now i found it, .. thx friends,

[on3]

adding:

STANFORD ML & USC ML Parlay -- 5 units to win 2.4

[on3]

man, that 4th down stop in the S. Carolina game really put the over in jeopardy.

[on3]

not sure how many people followed this week. but we went 3-1 on sides, 1-0 on the teaser, and 1-0 on the parlay for a total of +9.1 units.

sides: 7-3-1 +4.7 unit
teaser: 2-0 +8 units
parlay: 1-0 +2.4 units

[knugen]

Thx for the picks on3 , does it happens often That u add plays That late?, no offense se at all, just wonder cause i live 6 hour Ahead of est and Will most probably miss those play, so just wonder if i gonna follow this thread or just skip it..?

[mantorras77]

Thx for the picks on3 , does it happens often That u add plays That late?, no offense se at all, just wonder cause i live 6 hour Ahead of est and Will most probably miss those play, so just wonder if i gonna follow this thread or just skip it..?

I get my email on my phone and I just subscribe to the thread thus giving me instant response to when something it posted but I know many don't have that convenience. My work pays for my phone but if they didn't I wouldn't pay for it either.

[on3]

sides: 7-3-1 +4.7 unit
teaser: 2-0 +8 units
parlay: 1-0 +2.4 units

plays this week:

NOTRE DAME (-6) @ Pittsburgh --- 1 unit


10 point, 3 team teaser: MICHIGAN STATE (-13), OREGON (-4), USC (+13) --- 3 units

[hagball52]

On3, Anxious to see who else you like this week. I've got 13 games I'm looking at and hopefully you'll be on some of them.

[on3]

i made a play on Clemson when it was +3, but now the line has moved 6 points, so i'm not posting it here. i have leans on LSU/WVU under (i got it at 51), Baylor 1H and full game (at -20), Oregon State (when it was -2), Cal (at +3).

so many of these games have moved off good numbers that i cant really recommend making a play where they currently stand.

what's on your radar hagball?

[hagball52]

What I do is every week when the lines come out I go down the list and mark the games I like. Then I spend the rest of the week capping and researching and then make my selections on gameday. I look at other peoples picks to see where I'm at just in case I'm going in a wrong direction on a game. Here is what I'm looking at this week:
#304 BYU -2.5
#309 Toledo +2.5
#316 Illinois -13.5
#325 Temple +9
#337 Arkansaa +11.5
#341 LSU -5.5
#344 Mich. -10
#346 Ga. Tech -6
#349 ND -6.5
#362 Tex. Tech -21
#368 Bay. -20.5
#381 Ore. -14.5
#384 Az. ST.-2.5

I try to narrow it down to 4 or 5 straight bets and then I usually tease the strong leans.

P.S. The ones I really like are BYU, LSU, G.Tech and ASU

[on3]

re: BYU and ASU, i dont know how you have a feel on a team that looks amazing one week and garbage the next. i dont know anything about Central Florida as an opponent, but i cant back an erratic team like BYU. i know USC, after two ho-hum wins they dominated last week and while this is their first road game, ASU is not consistent. i'm not saying play USC, i'm saying by backing ASU you are gambling and not making an investment.

sports betting shouldnt be gambling and 'hoping' something happens. sports betting is analyzing trends, making predictions and having confidence that your research was correct. yes, at the end of the day we 'hope' we win, but we have data to back up our hope.

im interested to see your data on BYU and ASU and why you are so sure of those picks.

[hagball52]

Thanks for your input. I am rethinking my stand on ASU but the revenge factor is huge. ASU has lost 11 straight against USC. This game will be in the desert Sat. night. Gametime temp will be around 100 degrees. Southern Cal is very talented and very young but not deep. I like Osweiler. If he can get a couple drives going without turning it over I look for USC's defense to get gassed. The place will be rockin'. I may end up putting ASU on a teaser. The VI value index has USC as 6.5 pt fav so with the points they have a value of +9. Still thinking about this one. It's really good to hear other peoples perspective because sometimes I fall in love with a game and can't see the other side.

I am definitely making a play on BYU tomorrow night albeit a small one. I live in the heart of Mountain West country and know this team very well. Before Utah blew them out last week their front 7 on defense was considered one of the best. They did turn the ball over 6 times last week. BYU does not panic, they have a plan. They have tremendous senior leadership. Some of their players are 23 and 24 years old. They've gone on their Mormon missions and then came back to play football. BYU is nearly unbeatable at home especially after a loss. Heaps is coming along slower than hoped but they won't put him in a position to have to win the game by himself. I look for BYU's D to play extremely well and if their offense can hang on to the ball I look for a 7+ pts. victory. The VI value index has BYU as an 11.5 pt. fav minus the line puts their value right around +8.5.

Thanks so much for your input. It helps me a lot.

[shocktopme]

Thanks for your input. I am rethinking my stand on ASU but the revenge factor is huge. ASU has lost 11 straight against USC. This game will be in the desert Sat. night. Gametime temp will be around 100 degrees. Southern Cal is very talented and very young but not deep. I like Osweiler. If he can get a couple drives going without turning it over I look for USC's defense to get gassed. The place will be rockin'. I may end up putting ASU on a teaser. The VI value index has USC as 6.5 pt fav so with the points they have a value of +9. Still thinking about this one. It's really good to hear other peoples perspective because sometimes I fall in love with a game and can't see the other side. I am definitely making a play on BYU tomorrow night albeit a small one. I live in the heart of Mountain West country and know this team very well. Before Utah blew them out last week their front 7 on defense was considered one of the best. They did turn the ball over 6 times last week. BYU does not panic, they have a plan. They have tremendous senior leadership. Some of their players are 23 and 24 years old. They've gone on their Mormon missions and then came back to play football. BYU is nearly unbeatable at home especially after a loss. Heaps is coming along slower than hoped but they won't put him in a position to have to win the game by himself. I look for BYU's D to play extremely well and if their offense can hang on to the ball I look for a 7+ pts. victory. The VI value index has BYU as an 11.5 pt. fav minus the line puts their value right around +8.5. Thanks so much for your input. It helps me a lot.

I too like Byu in this game....Yeah Utah blew them out at home but its a 50-50 crowd at those games being 20 miles apart......Provo is a tough place to go to and win....I do admit I dont know alot about UCF either other than they lost to FIU last week....I think this is a much tougher test...Good luck guys

[ThePickSix]

BYU is averaging 13.3 points on offense and 22 on defense. Even though this game at home for BYU, there is a reason the sharps put this game at -2.5. It doesn't have any value at all.

[uso4lyfe]

BOL this week on3!

[on3]

plays this week:

NOTRE DAME (-6) @ Pittsburgh --- 1 unit

Parlay: VIRGINIA TECH ML (-1250)/OREGON ML (-600) --- 2 units to win .5 unit
10 point, 3 team teaser: MICHIGAN STATE (-13), OREGON (-4), USC (+13) --- 3 units

[hagball52]

I had a good day yesterday. My 4 top picks all won but I lost a couple teasers. I ended up with 4 units profit. One thing I learned is you can't handicap turnovers. I probably got lucky on BYU and ASU but I'll take the wins no matter how I get them. On to next week. GL all

[on3]

1-2-0 for -3.6 units on the week. like hagball said, its tough to cap turnovers. for USC, hard to win when you fumble inside the red zone for a go ahead score and throw a pick 6 next time around. on the next one...

sides: 7-4-1 +3.6 unit
teaser: 2-1 +5 units
ml parlay: 2-0 +2.9 units

[on3]

sides: 7-4-1 +3.6 unit
teaser: 2-1 +5 units
ml parlay: 2-0 +2.9 units

plays so far:

BAYLOR (-3, -130) @ Kansas State --- 3 units

[hagball52]

sides: 7-4-1 +3.6 unit
teaser: 2-1 +5 units
ml parlay: 2-0 +2.9 units

plays so far:

BAYLOR (-3, -130) @ Kansas State --- 3 units

Good to see you on them. I also like Baylor. There are only a couple other plays I like this week. I'm looking at Rutgers and Western Mich. Would appreciate your thoughts On3. I will be playing the 3 JM like college games.

P.S. I'm looking at 9 or 10 other games but just for teaser purposes. They don't come in a strong as the two I mentioned above. If you're interested let me know and I'll post. I don't want to unnecessarily clog your thread.

[on3]

i have lean on USF, lean to Alabama, lean to Duke. i see lots of stuff in the NFL i like. washington/STL under, chi bears, and about 2 others.

[BubbleTeaJelly]

loved your baseball thread....slow and steady start to CFB...are you risking x units or betting to win?

[hagball52]

i have lean on USF, lean to Alabama, lean to Duke. i see lots of stuff in the NFL i like. washington/STL under, chi bears, and about 2 others.

Seeing STL as a JM NFL play would you consider teasing them and the under together ?

My college leans for a 7 pt. teaser
#120 Temple PK
#122 WVU -13.5
#144 Boise St. -21
#152 Iowa St. +17
#164 Utah PK
#166 Col. St +4
#188 Wisc. -2
#193 Miss. +11.5

Those pointspreads are already adjusted with the teaser totals. Still capping but that's who I like at this time.

[on3]

i think toledo beats temple. like wvu, boise, iowa st, wisc. no opinion on the rest. i like alabama ML and looking for another team to parlayu with. looking at s. carolina and stanford.

[ThePickSix]

I really like Baylor & Bama

[hagball52]

i think toledo beats temple. like wvu, boise, iowa st, wisc. no opinion on the rest. i like alabama ML and looking for another team to parlayu with. looking at s. carolina and stanford.

Colorado St. is starting to emerge as a really strong play. The more I research it the more I like it.

[on3]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]sides: 7-4-1 +3.6 unit
teaser: 2-1 +5 units
ml parlay: 2-0 +2.9 units

plays so far:

BAYLOR (-3, -130) @ Kansas State --- 3 units
CLEMSON (+7) @ Va Tech --- 3 units (will put .5 unit on ML as well)
Clemson/Va Tech OVER 50 --- 3 units
2 team parlay: CLEMSON/Clemson Va Tech OVER 50 --- 2 units to win 5.2 units

will have one more ML parlay and a teaser posted Friday night sometime.[/COLOR]

[doin]

thanks for foot picks on3. followed you mlb, still looking at all your contributions and appreciating you!

[on3]

i might start posting my NFL plays too and make this a Football 2011 thread. also, for anyone that reads this thread, i would appreciate a greater discussion about the plays...much like what hagball does. contribute and make us all better!

[ThePickSix]

I do like Clemson +7 alot. What do you think about Bama/Florida Over 45? Seems really good on paper.

[on3]

I took the over on that Bama game at 44 in a small parlay. It is not one of my stronger plays, but I do like it.

[doin]

For baylor:

Baylor QB Robert Griffin III has thrown 142 passes without an interception. He also leads the nation in "points responsible" with 28 per game. ... Griffin threw for 404 yards and four TDs in a 47-42 win over Kansas State last season. ...
The Bears average 1 minute, 53 seconds on 23 scoring drives this season. That includes six drives of less than 60 seconds. ... Baylor ranks second nationally in total offense and passing efficiency, third in scoring offense, seventh in passing offense, 10th in sacks allowed and 15th in rushing offense.

Kansas State is 3-0 against Baylor at home. ... The Wildcats are just 3-7 in conference openers since 2000. ...
The Kansas State defense is ranked in the top 12 nationally in four defensive categories: scoring defense, pass defense, pass efficiency defense and total defense. It also ranks 21 in rushing defense.

reads like watching ABC television will be worthwhile. Nachos anyone?

[on3]

sides: 7-4-1 +3.6 unit
teaser: 2-1 +5 units
ml parlay: 2-0 +2.9 units

plays so far:

BAYLOR (-3, -130) @ Kansas State --- 3 units
CLEMSON (+7) @ Va Tech --- 3 units (will put .5 unit on ML as well)
Clemson/Va Tech OVER 50 --- 5 units
2 team parlay: CLEMSON (+7)/Clemson Va Tech OVER 50 --- 2 units to win 5.2 units
ALABAMA ML/STANFORD ML/GEORGIA TECH ML/CHICAGO BEARS ML -- 3 units to win 5.4 units

[hagball52]

My play of the day
#166 Colorado St. -3

My teaser of the day (7 pts)
#133 W. Mich
#169 Baylor
#178 So. Car.

Also I will be playing Arizona, Oregon St. and Cent. Mich on the JM like system. GL all

[on3]

love colorado state too. tailing you on that one.