Game 7 Hawaii Bowl Tulsa – Hawaii 12/24
Tulsa won 9 and earned this trip despite no winning its side of the Conference USA division. Hawaii won 10 (13 games) and looked good doing it except when playing Boise. Barring unusual island weather, look for a super high scoring game.
Tulsa Analysis: Tulsa had a 40-30 point ratio which was 34-38 vs. 7 bowl teams. The run O was nice at 5.2/219 and there was no go-to guy. The QB ran well and passed at 60%. 9 players caught 16 or more passes. The run D was better than usual at 4.0/137. The pass D% was 61.2 which won’t go well facing Hawaii. Tulsa did have 19 interceptions. The sack ratio was a modest 24-24. The PK was 14-22.
Hawaii Analysis: Hawaii had a strong 40-22.5 point ratio which was 30-33.5 vs. bowlers + USC. They ran 5.0/109 with few attempts because they pass 1st. Still, for the 1st time in quite a while a RB hit 1000+ yards. Green ran 1168-8.8-17 TD’s and caught 26 passes for a nice average. Their QB hit 66% with a 36-11 TD-interception ratio. Veteran WR Salas (106-15.8-12) led a strong group of WR’s. Like Tulsa, Hawaii had an unusually strong run D at 3.5/132! The pass D% was adequate at 59.3. Also like Tulsa, they can intercept (23 times). Their PK was 17-21 but lacks range. The sack ratio was 26-34.
Other stats, trends and game keys: These teams are very similar. Tulsa has a punter with great hang time, leading to a strong PR defense. Tulsa is the rush pick in a tier 3 category that has no value, and is the slight point stat pick. Overall it appears that Tulsa has the more focused run attack but Hawaii the feature RB. Tulsa has a dual threat QB but Hawaii’s QB is the better passer, has the better WR’s and faces a bit worse pass D. Tulsa has a slightly better sack shot. Tulsa also has a return game O and D edge. Tulsa keys are to win the special team battle and not be forced into passing more than usual. Hawaii keys are to utilize their WR talent edge, win the turnover battle, and avoid allowing a big special team play.
Pick: On neutral ground the line comes out to 4.5. This is at Hawaii, but bowl games usually do not get a full 3.5 home field advantage. Hawaii opened -12, and is a clear Power Play. We will go back the other way in due time (line now -10), with a slight Tulsa lean given the pre-New Years day performance of DD dogs. Call this one 41-34 Hawaii and a Lean OVER 72 as well.
Tulsa won 9 and earned this trip despite no winning its side of the Conference USA division. Hawaii won 10 (13 games) and looked good doing it except when playing Boise. Barring unusual island weather, look for a super high scoring game.
Tulsa Analysis: Tulsa had a 40-30 point ratio which was 34-38 vs. 7 bowl teams. The run O was nice at 5.2/219 and there was no go-to guy. The QB ran well and passed at 60%. 9 players caught 16 or more passes. The run D was better than usual at 4.0/137. The pass D% was 61.2 which won’t go well facing Hawaii. Tulsa did have 19 interceptions. The sack ratio was a modest 24-24. The PK was 14-22.
Hawaii Analysis: Hawaii had a strong 40-22.5 point ratio which was 30-33.5 vs. bowlers + USC. They ran 5.0/109 with few attempts because they pass 1st. Still, for the 1st time in quite a while a RB hit 1000+ yards. Green ran 1168-8.8-17 TD’s and caught 26 passes for a nice average. Their QB hit 66% with a 36-11 TD-interception ratio. Veteran WR Salas (106-15.8-12) led a strong group of WR’s. Like Tulsa, Hawaii had an unusually strong run D at 3.5/132! The pass D% was adequate at 59.3. Also like Tulsa, they can intercept (23 times). Their PK was 17-21 but lacks range. The sack ratio was 26-34.
Other stats, trends and game keys: These teams are very similar. Tulsa has a punter with great hang time, leading to a strong PR defense. Tulsa is the rush pick in a tier 3 category that has no value, and is the slight point stat pick. Overall it appears that Tulsa has the more focused run attack but Hawaii the feature RB. Tulsa has a dual threat QB but Hawaii’s QB is the better passer, has the better WR’s and faces a bit worse pass D. Tulsa has a slightly better sack shot. Tulsa also has a return game O and D edge. Tulsa keys are to win the special team battle and not be forced into passing more than usual. Hawaii keys are to utilize their WR talent edge, win the turnover battle, and avoid allowing a big special team play.
Pick: On neutral ground the line comes out to 4.5. This is at Hawaii, but bowl games usually do not get a full 3.5 home field advantage. Hawaii opened -12, and is a clear Power Play. We will go back the other way in due time (line now -10), with a slight Tulsa lean given the pre-New Years day performance of DD dogs. Call this one 41-34 Hawaii and a Lean OVER 72 as well.
