spongerat cursed bowl plays

[spongerat]

I'm always cursed when I start posting plays and instantly go from winning to losing big. So here I go jinxing myself.

villanova -10 2u
Over 54 1u

all 1 unit:
BYU -11.5
Fresno State +1.5
Troy -3

[spongerat]

lose
win
win
lose
win
3-2

I was shocked at how NIU was representing for the MAC. Other games went as expected. I had a few overs bet in there too but forgot to post and won't count them.

[spongerat]

Southern Miss +3
Louisville miss over 57
Boise -17

[zuluhead1``1]

Love the Souhern Miss pick. I honestly don't see why people are so surprised at NIU. I have watched all their games, and it seems like they have proven that they are solid.

[spongerat]

mosly because its the MAC full of sub par teams. But they dominated them (except the championship) in the same way a team from a non MAC school would have. Even stil it was hard to get a read on them because they didn't really play anyone so it was easy to underestimate them.

Like the total more than the side, I think southern miss will be able to slow but not stop louisville, regardless, it should be a shootout.

[spongerat]

wow talk about sharp lines on the southern miss game, squeeked out and over and a push. After the first half thought it was going over easily but they barely scored at all!

1-0-1
4-2-1 total

still on boise -17, looking at total and other plays now

[spongerat]

win, 5-2-1 overall

san diego state -3 tonight
maybe a play on hawaii but nothing official yet.

[spongerat]

sorry Navy. As much as I like watching you run all over the place it just goes to show you really do need a secondary. Luckily I hit my under bet too. Won't count toward my record but counts where it really matters $$$.

6-2-1

I have the feeling Hawaii is a little too big of a favorite here but I can't take Tulsa because fading a Hawaii team at home is no good. I also am going to go against the grain here and say that I am thinking about playing the under. Both teams can score but they've had tons of time to prepare on defense and the long break has made the other bowl teams' offense a little out of sync causing them to go under. If I have a play on this game it will be Hawaii and/or under

[spongerat]

hawaii under 74.5
no play on a side

[spongerat]

well i totally blew it on the total, went over by a few touchdowns. But I saved a bet by laying off hawaii so in my head I'm about even for the night, maybe? Happy Holidays everyone

[bruce_outside]

nice job so far. good luck.

[spongerat]

thanks, i'm hoping for continued success!

[spongerat]

airforce -2.5

[spongerat]

7-3-1

WVU -2.5
Missiouri -2.5
Maryland over 68

just thinking now but probably a play on oklahoma state and over

I know its a lot of chalk but my capping style picks out more favorites likely to cover than dogs. And the lines just happen to be too short this year for the favorites

[fishmonger]

7 is by no far short considering what type of game Maryland and ECU will play.

[spongerat]

interesting thing I noticed by going over ecu's schedule. They're 0-5 against teams with a passing D of 220 yards or better and 6-1 against teams with a pass D worse than 221. Maryland is exactly 220.9

[spongerat]

my mistake, nc state is 221 and ecu lost that game in overtime. But it still stands that about 221 is the line of win or lose for ECU and the overtime game with a 221 team shows that even more.

ECU's games all were over 68 except 3 which involved marshall who has a weak O, UNC and NC state which involved lots of missed FG and Turnovers in the redzone. Maryland scored 62 on a horrible wake forest D who is not even rated as bad as ECU. This game could be listed as a total of 100 and it still might go over.

[spongerat]

i'm excited tonight to see how some of the major conferences stack up this year, hopefully I can get a guage on if the big 10 and big 12 are over/under rated